Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 28, 2018.
if Gillespie gets down to -200 I'll cash out my 401k and bet it all on him.
I will be heavy on Cowboy i think he will likely win it and wants to send a message to Conor and as well the UFC that his serious.
The UFC probably has given Cory sandhagen a tough match up. Although i am surprised that Cory isn't the favorite following his two victories.
I assume some are still a bit upset over his win agaisnt Ian at Fight Night 135.
"Oddmarkers: We cant be wrong twice!"
I don't follow the odds to much.
I liked Hernandez against bums like OAM and Beneil but Cerrone will be much bigger than Alex. Pass for me
Anybody thinking of betting Gillespie at -450? He's not getting to -200 obviously
Jesus christ...Move on.
Even if I don't agree with all his bets or reasoning behind them he's still trying to contribute to these threads. Where are your thoughts on the card?
go f**k yourself, Kyle is cool and I like his breakdowns.
I think its an accurate price. I would bet him around 1.4+
Medeiros has power and a lot of heart. He recovers quick and he has KOs with the right hand and left hook. Also throws good knees. Gillespie was hurt in one ufc fight that I can recall. he looks open to right hands. He has good single legs and should get yancy down and dominate. I don't think Gillespie will be wanting a stand up fight here. Gillespie ITD or fight not to go the distance may be playable
Randy brown is the better athlete and better all round fighter but as thick as a plank of wood in there. Consistently makes dumb moves in there so it's very hard to put money on him. Anyone pulled the trigger on brown?
After some tape study I think betting on Van Zant on a minus money is not a smart move vs almost anyone. She was on her way to lose to maybe the biggest bum in wmma in Bec Rawlings, before she finished her. Ostovich is not an easy fight I think. And lets not forget that what made Paige good @ 115 was she was one of the strongest there and the biggest and she had endless cardio - which is a very nice combo, you can win a lot of fights only having physicality and cardio in women divisions. This now is 125, she doesn't have that. Ostovich seems like a strong girl and she can wrestle. I think this could be a very competitive fight.
Jack Slack tweeted -"Cyborg vs Nunes and TJ vs Cejudo competing for UFC’s most mundane feeling superfight."
I doesn't feel special, yeah. But could be, if Cejudo win. It's gonna be insane - beating the GOAT Demetrious and TJ back to back. Wow! I don't know, guys I feel it's possible... That TJ line looks sooo good! I know that. I am 100% sure there are people that bet TJ straight with like 10 000$. It seems like the line is a steal. I know on paper it's TJ's fight to lose! But I thought about it some more and the cut to 125 didn't gave me pause. TJ is not a big 135er to begin with. But what bugs me is that Cejudo is very fast. I honestly think he is John Dodson fast. He packs a punch and he can wrestle. So this fight is 90% going to be a stand up fight. Cejudo can clip him. He might, why not? It's weird feeling, I don't want to touch that fight at all.
Considering how taxing cerrones weight cut is vs the fact that Hernandez might be one of the strongest lightweights doesn’t concern you?
Cerrone looks great, happily will bet him ITD or just take the fight ITD
PVZ should be a heavier favorite, will probably max bet the ML. Probably take her on the cards as well.
TJ coming down in weight is weird but he looks really healthy a couple weeks out and his striking/power is far superior to mighty mouse so unless his take down defense has somehow disappeared and Cejudo smothers him, I like him ITD. I may even take him first round KO.
Depending on the odds, the hardy fight DNGTD seems like as much of a lock as there can be on an MMA card. Zero chance that dude can go three rounds and someone's getting their head knocked off.
Insofar as this guy's trash posting, there's a difference between contributing and just spewing nonsense all over a forum and making it virtually unreadable. On top of the novellas he posts, his analysis is not accurate and he comes off as a cocky piece of shit. The only reason I don't have him on ignore is because I have made a good chunk of money this month betting the exact opposite. Your point is taken though and I'll avoid my own non-contributing posts in the future.
BOL on the card.
Cerrones cut isn't that bad he cut almost nothing at 170. Hernandez probably isn't one of the strongest either he's just super aggressive. If he had solid striking it would be more worrying as pressure strikers are Cerrones weakness but his striking is sloppy and he relies on aggressive grappling where Cerrone is one of the best in MMA, great TDD, top game, takedowns and a legitimately effective guard game.
Actually realy like Yancy as a big dog. Really tough guy, good TDD and get up game. His main weakness is being too hittable but I don't see why he won't comfortably outstrike and hurt Gillespie. Worst case I think Gillespie takes a decision, his only decent sub is the arm triangle which will be tough to pull off on Yancy and even if he locks it in Yancys skinny build will make it tough to finish a blackout before you tapout guy like Yancy with it.
Gillespie shoots low like Khabib and has great chain wrestling and top control. He is the closest thing I've seen to Khabib with his low singles. Unless he gets hurt and taken out, he's getting Yancy down no doubt, you can't really stop those kinds of takedowns I don't think. No matter who he fights, he will take them down eventually. Khabib has taken down every single opponent. I would only bet on Yancy by KO here. Not saying its a bad bet but I can't see him outpointing Gillespie
Yeah I was going to see what his ITD or NSC line was like. I favour for Gillespie for sure but Yancy is a big step up and not an easy stylistic match up like the odds suggest.
Ive heard repeatedly Cerrone had issues with cutting to 155 due to his motorcycle accident but I’ll digress on that
I’d agree that Hernandez’s agressive wrestling style doesn’t exactly seem like a great matchup here, but i personally was impressed with how he beat OAM at his own game, he outmuscled OAM for 3 rounds and still had gas in the tank left.
I might be fanboying over Hernandez but at -200 I’d have to pass or even support Cowboy
How to you see Hernandez approaching the fight and how do you think it plays out?
I can't really knock playing a dog that large, but I disagree with some things you are saying. For one, I can definitely see Gillespie cracking him standing. Yancy just does not have good reactions or defense. Gillespie always looks to wrestle, but he can wing punches too. I also don't really see Yancy as that big of a step up in competition. Rinaldi and Pichel both give Yancy a good fight. Honestly, I don't think Yancy is really that good. He's just so damn hard to put away and he can put on a hell of a fight if you concede to get in firefight with him.
Separate names with a comma.