UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

I think way too many people are ignoring the wrestling aspect of this fight since Edwards has finished guys so quickly. The other big factor could be the size differential. People always just say "Bermudez wrestled division 1", but they don't really look into it. He wrestled for Bloomberg mainly at 149 lbs. He ended up quitting his 4th season, and he was eligible to wrestle for a 5th and did not. So he left more than a year and half of college wrestling on the table. Edwards was with Arizona State and Old Dominion. He settled at 174 lbs. I'd definitely give Edwards the edge in collegiate wrestling background, and he did it at a higher weight.

I don't think we'll see Bermudez being able to outwrestle Edwards here. Keep in mind Edwards is at MMA Lab. He's not at some "yes man" team. There is no way he's not wrestling and grappling day in and day out. When I look back at Bermudez's career, he's had 5 wins in his last 11 fights. Three of those wins were against guys ok with fighting on their back or where he had an absolutely clear wrestling advantage. The other 2 were Kawijiri and Guida, and this was when Bermudez looked absolutely at the top of his game. That same Bermudez would have had an easy time with someone like Rick Glenn or Andre Fili, and I think that Bermudez would have looked a lot better than he did vs. Elkins.

I just see a guy who looks like he's clearly declined, he's moving up a weight class, and he doesn't have a wrestling advantage which he's depended on before. He's going up against someone with a better wrestling background, in his natural weight class (wrestled higher at that), who hits hard, and is training at a good camp. Edwards could end up being a flop, but I feel all of the signs are there that this should be a favorable matchup for him.
Pat Cummins was D1, Anderson was D3 and look what happened when they fought. I wouldn't pay too much attention as to who was better in College, this is MMA wrestling. But there isn't much else to go on if you like Te Edwards. He's accomplished nothing as an MMA fighter, 8 fights in 5 years, fought no one and he's been beat twice.

What else does Edwards have besides a right hand? There is no reason to believe he is the overall better fighter than Bermudez. Edwards couldn't even out wrestle a kickboxer, never won a fight outside the 1st round and he slows down after the 1st round.

What about the Don Madge fight impressed you the most? And Don Madge ain't some world beater, he lost to the same South African jobber 3 times, his resume sucks.
 
The closer we get to fight night the more I like Cejudo. I said I wouldn't make my pick until I see the weigh ins but I don't like how Dillashaw is looking already and there are still a few more days till weigh in.

It would be foolish to think that you are not going to get a diminished or deplated Dillashaw at this weight. This is not his weight class, this is not where he performs at his best. I wonder when was the last time Dillashaw weighed 125lbs, now at 32 years old he's gonna make the cut down, I don't like that.

The younger man Cejudo is the champion of the 125 division and he beat the guy that everyone thought (not me) was the best p4p fighter in the world. But now Cejudo is the underdog to a guy that has never even stepped foot in this weight class.

Both these guys have been posting pictures of their physiques on instagram. One guy looks like he needs food and water and one guy looks like he's in the best shape of his life, to me that is very telling on how I think this fight is gonna go.

You're not going to get an optimal Dillashaw, there is a reason he does not compete at 125lbs, it is not optimal for his performance. How much will he be diminished from the cut? who knows but there is a price for cutting those extra 10 pounds.

If this fight was at 135 then I would favor Dillashaw. Both these guys are elite athletes with high level skills, I think what will make the difference is the weight class, think Dillashaw should of stayed in his.
 
Him being almost 40 and likely having brain damage makes me hesitant to bet him in this spot

I’d honestly rather bet the younger dog.

He’s 100% going to land a few bombs on teixeira

How long will teixeiras chin hold up? If he didn’t take misha down we’d likely be talking about him dropping three in a row and 4 out of the last 5. Misha was landing at will on him
A guy with decent TDD, or great footwork, sure I would agree, but Teixeira can take Roberson down and has the gas tank to do that for 3 rounds even if he can't get a finish. Roberson can't take him down like Corey, and even if he does, he will get swept or reversed. Roberson can only win while the fight takes place on the feet, imo anyway. And Glover has been in with the best, if he wants to win this he will. I do wonder though if his heart will be in it, as he must know that there is no hope of a title shot now.

With all due respect to Roberson, Corey is clearly top 5 or top 3 - even with his chin issues. He can beat everyone in the division outside Jones, a very different fighter from Roberson.
 
A guy with decent TDD, or great footwork, sure I would agree, but Teixeira can take Roberson down and has the gas tank to do that for 3 rounds even if he can't get a finish. Roberson can't take him down like Corey, and even if he does, he will get swept or reversed. Roberson can only win while the fight takes place on the feet, imo anyway. And Glover has been in with the best, if he wants to win this he will. I do wonder though if his heart will be in it, as he must know that there is no hope of a title shot now.

With all due respect to Roberson, Corey is clearly top 5 or top 3 - even with his chin issues. He can beat everyone in the division outside Jones, a very different fighter from Roberson.

I have to watch more tape on Roberson, but it’s not like Glover has really good takedowns. You are also counting on his chin to be able to eat shots while trying to close that distance

Glover’s chin and the fact that he moves like he’s wearing a 100lb weighted vest are a cause for concern.

Roberson looked like he had a pretty decent blast double, but why would he really want to take teixeira down unless he wants to score points. He seems like a smart fighter to me


I’ll have to watch more tape on Roberson to see what his tdd is like.
 
I have to watch more tape on Roberson, but it’s not like Glover has really good takedowns. You are also counting on his chin to be able to eat shots while trying to close that distance

Glover’s chin and the fact that he moves like he’s wearing a 100lb weighted vest are a cause for concern.

Roberson looked like he had a pretty decent blast double, but why would he really want to take teixeira down unless he wants to score points. He seems like a smart fighter to me


I’ll have to watch more tape on Roberson to see what his tdd is like.

I think he does. While Roberson is teammates with Corey, you can't pick up high-level TDD without years of experience. I am pretty sure I heard an interview with DC who said he used see Glover entering wrestling tournaments and holding his own in them. As long as he can fall back to his ground game, his line has value
 
Pat Cummins was D1, Anderson was D3 and look what happened when they fought. I wouldn't pay too much attention as to who was better in College, this is MMA wrestling. But there isn't much else to go on if you like Te Edwards. He's accomplished nothing as an MMA fighter, 8 fights in 5 years, fought no one and he's been beat twice.

What else does Edwards have besides a right hand? There is no reason to believe he is the overall better fighter than Bermudez. Edwards couldn't even out wrestle a kickboxer, never won a fight outside the 1st round and he slows down after the 1st round.

What about the Don Madge fight impressed you the most? And Don Madge ain't some world beater, he lost to the same South African jobber 3 times, his resume sucks.

I was one of the few on Madge in that fight. I felt he had a pretty big advantage standing, and Edwards loves to strike. I didn't really expect Edwards to be comfortable trying to wrestle out a decision.

How exactly do you see this fight going though? Do you actually see Bermudez using his wrestling to win with takedowns? Do you see him winning the striking? Saying Edwards hasn't beat anyone doesn't really talk about the stylistic matchup which is by far the most important aspects when looking at a fight.
 
Stewart opens -215, can't beleive I won't get the chance to fade Chance. Had a large bet on Brown and was able to max grant a few times, -135, -165, -185. Can't bet Stewart at -215 though. Hope Chance can pull it out so we get another shot.
 
I figured we'd see Stewart/Chance closer to evens. I still wouldn't play Chance here. I think Stewart wins, but I could see it not looking very easy.
 
edwards to win by decision is x6.5, seems a bit crazy to me
 
Stewart looked awful in his DWTCS fight. I guess I'll have to watch more of him.
 
I was one of the few on Madge in that fight. I felt he had a pretty big advantage standing, and Edwards loves to strike. I didn't really expect Edwards to be comfortable trying to wrestle out a decision.

How exactly do you see this fight going though? Do you actually see Bermudez using his wrestling to win with takedowns? Do you see him winning the striking? Saying Edwards hasn't beat anyone doesn't really talk about the stylistic matchup which is by far the most important aspects when looking at a fight.

Was on Madge too fwiw.

I think Bermudez will take the "octagon control" portion of the scorecards - I do see this going the distance most of the time. He'll pressure Te and won't go away very easily. Madge showed us this gameplan can lead to success and Bermudez has already shown this style before.

The wrestling; I really don't know. You mentioned Edwards background there - thanks for that - but how many so-called 'accomplished' collegiate wrestlers have we seen come to MMA and, much to a bettors fury sometimes, ignore or under-utilize that aspect of their game? Not that we have much to go on, but I believe Te has left wrestling behind, or his doesn't translate well in the UFC. His record proves that he obviously likes to strike. I think at this stage all we can safely assume is that Bermudez and Edwards will cancel each other's wrestling out. As a Bermudez backer this doesn't really bother me because of the pressure/control aspect. I'd be very worried if I thought Bermudez would be on the backfoot and his desperate wrestling, which he would need, was simply stuffed by the opponent. I don't believe this is the case here.

Bermudez should have a huge edge in experience as this fight goes long. He's been around the block and, as others have said, barely lost his last few fights. I don't have any evidence but I have a feeling Bermudez will have a big cardio edge too.

Either guy could get the KO or get KO'd.


I happily take the + money veteran against a very unproven opponent who doesn't have that arrow-up momentum I look for in a younger fighter (Volk-Mendes comes to mind, Walker-Rountree another).
 
In case this has not been shared, this will be Te Edwards first fight as a full time fighter. Given his age, athleticism and camp (MMA Lab), I wouldn't be shocked to see noticeable improvements.
 
In case this has not been shared, this will be Te Edwards first fight as a full time fighter. Given his age, athleticism and camp (MMA Lab), I wouldn't be shocked to see noticeable improvements.

If you were Edwards coach and you knew your fighter might put himself in the position of going 0-2 in the ufc after the contender win, what would you be telling your fighter?

For sure he'll be looking to utilise Edwards strengths and not take a risk of going out there and throwing down. Why risk getting caught with a lucky shot?
 
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Why Glover is not a bigger favourite? Roberson is far easier task than Cutelaba was. He can't wrestle or grapple, has limited gas tank and he is going up a weightclass for this.
 
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Why Glover is not a bigger favourite? Roberson is far easier task than Cutelaba was. He can't wrestle or grapple, has limited gas tank and he is going up a weightclass for this.
People going up in weightclass have historically done really well.

Whittaker, Gastelum, Anthony smith. That being said, I have $5 on glover parlayed with Hardy.
 

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