UFN 89 - Wonderboy vs Waterboy - 6/18 - Ontario part II

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@Joseph Budden

I have never touched that Round Robin concept, but have tried it out now with a risky 4man. Is there any tactical way to implement Round Robin in a serious part of betting or just for the lulz?
Guessing you saw my post in betting questions? I'm fairly new to using these. Just been throwing lines in the -120 and better range I like in there for past few events. Noticed when reviewing my bets and dumb hail mary parlays these could be profitable for me and thus far they DEFINITELY have been. Can't tell you how many events I had hail mary parlays where only 1-2 lines didn't hit.

EZ said a parlay's a parlay and that makes sense. Categorizing lines for round robins doesn't change anything. Just makes it more neat and easy to follow I guess. I'll have a couple round robins for the big early July back to back to back categorized by price. Maybe i'll google information just to see if gambler's on the web have any theoretical approaches they like to use.
 
FWIW Carlos Condit was on the Luke Thomas show yesterday and picked Rory. Mark Henry was on today and picked Wonderboy.
To be fair, good chance Mark Henry has a personal connection to WB through Weidman so that might not be objective
 
Wow. Played Lybarger dec in my round robin just for the value since I think it could be a close scrap. Thanking God for that decision now
 
Can't say I'm disappointed to see Randa Markos miss weight and get penalized 20% of her purse.
 
2 units on Lybarger. Markos is soft and dont make weight.
 
2 units on Lybarger. Markos is soft and dont make weight.


I still think Markos takes this. She hits harder and has much better grappling. She's fought better competition, too, and is Canadian (I'm aware born in Iraq)

I hedged my plays but she was actually my biggest bet before the weighin.
 
I still think Markos takes this. She hits harder and has much better grappling. She's fought better competition, too, and is Canadian (I'm aware born in Iraq)

I hedged my plays but she was actually my biggest bet before the weighin.

I would understand Leternou but why Randa? A fade on her opponent?

On the other hand, anyone like Rory ITD at +250 and fight ending ITD at -150? Think Rory finishes WB late or WB finishes Rory early.
 
Yes, I didn't place too much stock in that fight. WB has improved his grappling by leaps and bounds. Rory and Matt Brown aren't the same pressure fighters but Rory is the most complete fighter on the roster. He can employ many of the pressure tactics of Brown because its in his toolbelt. Now employing them against an improved fighter sch as WB is another thing all together. BUT this fight did show that an experienced grappler can make work of WB on the ground. He didn't show much of his backand it takes years to know the nuances of the BJJ game which Rory knows if he has top control. Getting wrestled against the cage and using the cage for TDD help is different than TDD without the cage for support. Matt Brown was hitting leg taps in the centre in the second/third round like it was nothing. Yes WB was tired but it certainly can be done when WB hasn't experienced a 5 round fight. We don't know how he will fare in the later 4/5 rounds and we know he can be taken down much easier when tired. However, he is probably the most improved fighter after a loss after Max Holloway so all this is specualion.



A similar gameplan doesnt mean the same gameplan. I did not say the "same". Benson Henderson & RDA employed a similar gameplan to beat Nate Diaz. No it wasn't the same but the basis was similar. RDA pressured with his leg kicks to the lead leg which Benson also did but not to the same extent. RDA was also punishing the body of Nate to sap his cardio which I dont recall Benson doing much of. Benson pressured Nate to the cage and then clinched up with him to try and sap his cardio whilst employing more wrestling against the cage as the fight progressed to the fourth and fifth rounds using trips with underhooks to take him down. RDA used his pressure with leg and body kicks to get Nate to the cage and take him down with single legs. RDA was also more lenient in wanting to stay in Nate's guard. THEY both employed a SIMILAR strategy and not the same one AND both RDA and Benson fought to their strengths. Now how is this relevant you say, to demonstrate my point that Brown and Rory are not the same fighters but can employ the same pressuring strategies because they both have that in their tools. I don't know how Rory is going to be affected by the Robbie fight but if the past is an indication, WB is gonna get a beating. Nate was ragdolled after he was beat by Condit. Maia wa systematically broken down after Robbie fight.

my thinking was pretty much the same although my articulation would have been considerably worse.

not a hugely confident bet but happy to hit rory at + odds against anyone, i really do think he will be the champ in the next few years.
 
my thinking was pretty much the same although my articulation would have been considerably worse.

not a hugely confident bet but happy to hit rory at + odds against anyone, i really do think he will be the champ in the next few years.

Thanks to you and t6p for acknowledging it in some capacity. Underrated comment if I do say so myself.
 
I would understand Leternou but why Randa? A fade on her opponent?

On the other hand, anyone like Rory ITD at +250 and fight ending ITD at -150? Think Rory finishes WB late or WB finishes Rory early.

I already explained why :/

And yes, I did "does no go 5" for Thompson vs rory
 
I already explained why :/

And yes, I did "does no go 5" for Thompson vs rory

Yup my bad. Cant edit or delete at all cause I re read it. Annoying it is.
 
event - decisions O6.5 +198 and up i like.

likely decision:
cote-cerrone
calderwood-letourneau
saggo-silva
beal-soto
theodorou-alvey
markos-lybarger
bagautinov-herrera

could go either way:
macdonald-thompson
OAM-gouti
jotko-mccrory
covington-meunier

unlikely decision:
oconnell-bosse
cutelaba-cirkunov
 
event - decisions O6.5 +198 and up i like.

likely decision:
cote-cerrone
calderwood-letourneau
saggo-silva
beal-soto
theodorou-alvey
markos-lybarger
bagautinov-herrera

could go either way:
macdonald-thompson
OAM-gouti
jotko-mccrory
covington-meunier

unlikely decision:
oconnell-bosse
cutelaba-cirkunov
On the same page in every way again with this prop. Hit over 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5
 
HUGE line movement. soto now fav...elias down to -245...markos down to -145
 
Damn small cage... that's not good for Jotko, Wonderboy, Gouti, and Meunier.
 
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