UFN 90 - RDA vs Alvarez - Las Vegas

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Going with Derrick Lewis by easy KO. Upset going to happen.
 
i have been a long time lurker and finally decided to make an account and share in some of the discussion. This forum has been a goldmine of info. Put my mind at ease on some bets i was worries about and changed my way of thinking on others due to great points that i didnt think about. On to a couple thoughts I have. I have to lean toward Big Country as i do not think BB can get him down and even if he does I think Roy can handle himself just fine. Standing I would take Roy all day that he can land one of his power shots. I am up in the air on RDA/Alvarez. I think its a much closer fight then the odds show. I dont think either gets finished early. right now looking at the over and a little stab at alvarez.
 
AxeMurderer said:
i have been a long time lurker and finally decided to make an account and share in some of the discussion. This forum has been a goldmine of info. Put my mind at ease on some bets i was worries about and changed my way of thinking on others due to great points that i didnt think about. On to a couple thoughts I have. I have to lean toward Big Country as i do not think BB can get him down and even if he does I think Roy can handle himself just fine. Standing I would take Roy all day that he can land one of his power shots. I am up in the air on RDA/Alvarez. I think its a much closer fight then the odds show. I dont think either gets finished early. right now looking at the over and a little stab at alvarez.
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Welcome. Good first post.
 
I can hear 'Rockhold' being whispered in my ear right now but RDA won't lose his belt to a guy who pushes him against the cage. The judges have shown again and again that you have to beat the champ to take his belt in a decision. See: Rua-Machida, Lawler-Condit, GSP-Hendricks. Cruz-TJ might be an exception to this but that's very arguable (and it was Cruz's belt to begin with; nice loophole for the judges there).

RDA beat a tough as nails Diaz, solved the Pettis puzzle for everyone, and just utterly destroyed a peaking, prime Cerrone. Eddie lost to that same Cerrone, split a downward spiraling Gilbert, and split a figured out Pettis with an ugly, boring, belt-unworthy decision (could argue that Pettis lost, Eddie didn't win).

Anyways, I take RDA all day.
 
I don't think RDA will be affected by Hubris in the way that cocky rockhold was. He's the anti rockhold, a Frankenstein looking mid level journey man who perfected his skill set over years of dedication.

I think Alvarez has 2 paths to victory, come on hard and get an early stoppage, or try to do what he did to Pettis and Melendez. Both are really tall orders since RDA has a granite chin, a huge gastank, and a higher grappling pedigree.

Good points about wrestlers handing RDA his last losses (I think guida was a fluke tho). But 1 is kahbib, probably the worst matchup possible, a world class wrestler and a world class judoka. And the second was a roided to the gills giant tibau. Its going to be very hard for Eddie to do what those 2 did imo.

I'll be in RDA in some prop form since his ML is so high. Too bad the prices suck. Eddie is the type of guy like cote last week who takes a lot of punishment in his fights even tho he is rarely stopped. Well, this time he is facing a dangerous guy with a deep gas tank and my gut is leaning late stoppage for RDA, similar to the Chandler stoppage. Alvarez was getting mauled by cowboy in round 3 , RDA can work a similar leg kick strategy imo and wear Alvarez down to an eventual finish.
 
AxeMurderer said:
i have been a long time lurker and finally decided to make an account and share in some of the discussion. This forum has been a goldmine of info. Put my mind at ease on some bets i was worries about and changed my way of thinking on others due to great points that i didnt think about. On to a couple thoughts I have. I have to lean toward Big Country as i do not think BB can get him down and even if he does I think Roy can handle himself just fine. Standing I would take Roy all day that he can land one of his power shots. I am up in the air on RDA/Alvarez. I think its a much closer fight then the odds show. I dont think either gets finished early. right now looking at the over and a little stab at alvarez.
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welcome.
 
There should be one mega-thread for this weekend. It's just seems kinda annoying to have to look for through all 3 for news, especially since it's back to back to back IMO. Let's merge the 3 and throw it back one time like the Oblivion thread in the heavies !

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Anyways, I gotta wonder how Eddie does against a southpaw. I noticed he hasn't faced any notable ones in his career thus far except for the ambidextrous Pettis who he out muscled for the most part. I think Eddie is much more comfortable fighting against someone in the same stance as he has a bunch of go-to moves he excels at like his lancing jab. I think Eddie will need to pressure RDA if he wants to win this fight and I expect him to attempt to but I think RDA is adept at fighting forward, as well as backwards but I can't say the same for Eddie in this match up, where if he's the one being pressured I don't think it's a good night for him.

Eddie though, is always a live-dog in any situation. He's got great cardio, experience, heart, chin, striking, wrestling, and BJJ. Whenever you can get a guy with those attributes at ridiculous odds, I think it's worth the risk even though I'm not picking him to win this match up.

My bet as it stands is the over as well as the fight hitting the scorecards in favor of RDA. And it pays pretty damn well. Both guys are savvy with championship experience. The last main event had Wonderboy's decision jumping from +350, to +683 which cashed me out some major guap $$.
 
Ukram said:
Roy's the big favourite coming in and should get the win, I think myself and few others are liking black beast for that underdog hw value, I just can't trust hw's when one punch ends it :)

I am praying BTsports renews the ufc contact for end of july, if it goes to sky were screwed since it may become all PPV events.
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I doubt Sky would turn into PPVs, considering the awkward timing of the events.
 
watching a lot of tape for this card -- pretty impressed with Pedro Munhoz.

not very impressed with Anthony Birchak or Dileno Lopes
 
Jerrod Sanders should have a huge wrestling advantage over Felipe arrantes.

Likely cardio advantage as well
 
Gilbert burns vs Lukas sajewski looks like an absolute crap shoot.

Burns seems to be much more technical standing and on the ground, but sajewski seems like a wild man who comes forward and has good cardio, one of those tricky guys to peg.
 
edole said:
Jerrod Sanders should have a huge wrestling advantage over Felipe arrantes.

Likely cardio advantage as well
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Wrestling edge definitely. But I think Arantes is likely better in every other area
 
Joseph Budden said:
Wrestling edge definitely. But I think Arantes is likely better in every other area
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Any particular fight I should watch? Ive seen the Souza fight and the Fili fight and I was not very impressed with his overall game.
 
I just watched Felipe Arantes vs Yves Jabouin as well -- beautiful armbar finish, but still -- not very impressed with his striking/wrestling.
 
Russell Doane is a scrappy Hawaiian -- I like his game. Very close fight with Alcantara
 
edole said:
Any particular fight I should watch? Ive seen the Souza fight and the Fili fight and I was not very impressed with his overall game.
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Thought he looked real good in the Jabouin fight but definitely a different style and who knows where Jabouin was at that point in his career compared to other UFC calibur fighters.

Forgot how long ago the fight vs Alcantara was but that was a similar style match up and he did well. Need to rewatch the Blanco fight and need to rewatch some Jerrod before I finalize my opinion with bets though. Only remember that fight vs Cedeno
 
I like Sanders and the over

POSSSSSSIBLY a stab on Lopes -- need to see more.
 
Woooo lines. Thanks for getting em up early Kalikas.

150 to win 200 on Pyle
Duffy + Burns 110 to win 100
o2.5 Dileno vs Birchak + o2.5 Makdessi vs Mehdi 100 to win 135

That's it for now. But think I like some of these other lines. Surprised Burns was so cheap (-190) and got Pyle at +135!!!
 
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