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Yuta Sasaki is the type of slick grappler who can catch a lot of people off guard if they’re not careful. I can’t see Wilson Reis falling into one of his traps however. Reis should be able to get Sasaki to the ground with ease, and once he sets up in top position he’s one of the most controlling grapplers at 125. Even on the feet, despite having a massive height and reach advantage, Sasaki hasn’t figured out to use that range yet which means Reis should get entry to his takedowns with ease.
Nik Lentz is a perfect test for Islam Makhachev at this point. Makhachev wants to get inside on opponents and grind on them with his grappling. If he can do that against someone like Lentz it will be a very impressive feat. Through 17 fights in the UFC, the only person who has really been able to beat Lentz in that manner has been Chad Mendes. There’s a lot of hype behind Makhachev in general, and it could push this line further in the Russian’s favor despite a tough matchup. That may be enough for me to take a shot on a fighter who has been very good to bettors over the years.
Since coming into the UFC, Ian McCall has had six fights. He’s also had to withdraw from fights six times due to injury or illness. That doesn’t include the three times opponents have pulled out of fights with him in the past year. It’s now going on two years since McCall stepped into the Octagon, his body is absolutely falling apart, and he’s gone through four consecutive training camps to get to this fight, with no payoff at the end. If he’s even close to 100%, I’ll be absolutely shocked. Jarred Brooks probably isn’t the unknown guy you want to be facing in that situation as the undefeated fighter is a very solid grappler, and this would probably be fairly competitive with McCall at his best. I may have to take a shot on the youngster, although he could be in over his head accepting this bout on short notice.
He hasn’t been out quite as long as McCall, but Ryan LaFlare hasn’t seen the cage in well over a year. Before the layoff, his only UFC loss came to Demian Maia, and LaFlare was able to do better than most against the current, dominant incarnation of Maia. LaFlare has been put on his back before, and that could be trouble if he ends up there against Carneiro, but on the feet LaFlare should be busier, and he should be the one getting top position more often than not. I’ll be picking LaFlare, but can’t trust him in this spot.
Rick Glenn was in a horrible spot to make his UFC debut, but should rebound nicely here. He doesn’t have to worry about being put on his back in this fight, and Nover isn’t a particularly high-volume fighter which should allow Glenn to control the pace. I think the end result is a decision for Glenn, but I’m not too interested in betting it at the current price, as Nover tends to make all of his fights competitive.