UFC on ESPN 3 Jacare vs Hermansson

I've been feeling very confident in Jacare since the fight was announced but I'll happily admit that when I saw that first @Sadistics post without any bets on Souza I was a bit shook.

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Not because I have to tail him but it made me feel like I might have missed something crucial...

Haha I posted my early plays before we had a Souza line, you're not missing anything. If this was a 3 rounder I'd break 5u
 
How do you see the fight playing out? Gonzalez has never been to a decision... do you think that trend continues?

Gun to my head, Gonzalez itd or KO would be the play. That said, I'll be honest in that even that would feel a bit forced. I just know I wouldn't pay juice on Miller at this point except against a TOTAL slug. And while I don't rate Gonzalez highly, he's not awful. Miller could still find a sub or grind out a win. I just don't favor him.
 
Everyone on McGee? He can't really finish, is it worth relying on him grinding out the dec against a more athletic guy that can catch a hittable guy?
 
Everyone on McGee? He can't really finish, is it worth relying on him grinding out the dec against a more athletic guy that can catch a hittable guy?

Who knows? I honestly can't decide if Lima has just been unlucky up until last fight or what. McGee...yeah. Grinder with little chance of a finish but has a knack for winning decisions. Good luck betting this one...
 
Who knows? I honestly can't decide if Lima has just been unlucky up until last fight or what. McGee...yeah. Grinder with little chance of a finish but has a knack for winning decisions. Good luck betting this one...
Took a freight train like Ponz to get Court out of there though. And no one else has.
 
Ion the dog. The line movement this event...
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Ion KO or Glover sub. Maybe Ion rd 1.

Even those odds don't look amazing but they cover the most likely outcomes for sure.
 
Took a freight train like Ponz to get Court out of there though. And no one else has.

Oh yeah. Court is tough as nails. Durable grinder extraordinaire. Dec is +119 vs his ML -160. IDK...probably would be a total pass for me. Lima is too hard to figure out.
 
Ion KO or Glover sub. Maybe Ion rd 1.

Even those odds don't look amazing but they cover the most likely outcomes for sure.
My action on this fight looks like a botched plastic surgery. Got Ion between -155 and -140, bought that down with Glover at -120. Then added Ion KO because degen. I wish I just stayed away.
 
My action on this fight looks like a botched plastic surgery. Got Ion between -155 and -140, bought that down with Glover at -120. Then added Ion KO because degen. I wish I just stayed away.

I know these feels. Came on very confident on Glover and as the days have gone past I've found myself thinking Ion is going to come out and smash him quickly.. Small hedge on Ion first round KO
 
My action on this fight looks like a botched plastic surgery. Got Ion between -155 and -140, bought that down with Glover at -120. Then added Ion KO because degen. I wish I just stayed away.

Roberson was within an eyelash of finishing Glover. At this point fading Glover probably isn't the worst move. He still has his terrific ground game IF he can put his opponent on their back. But his hands look slow and he looked like he was stuck in mud vs Corey Anderson. Glover is coming to the end of his career imo.
 
Roberson was within an eyelash of finishing Glover. At this point fading Glover probably isn't the worst move. He still has his terrific ground game IF he can put his opponent on their back. But his hands look slow and he looked like he was stuck in mud vs Corey Anderson. Glover is coming to the end of his career imo.
The ref actually motions to pull Roberson off too.
 
I know these feels. Came on very confident on Glover and as the days have gone past I've found myself thinking Ion is going to come out and smash him quickly.. Small hedge on Ion first round KO
I'm the opposite to that. I've started being swayed that Glover isn't actually that shot yet when 7 ridiculous elbows didn't fully KO him...
 
I'm the opposite to that. I've started being swayed that Glover isn't actually that shot yet when 7 ridiculous elbows didn't fully KO him...

That's how I started out, Glover has all the tools he needs to get the job done, but there is something to be said for raw power, speed and youth. It's going to be a sweaty first round and if Glover is still in there after that I'll relax a little
 
I'm the opposite to that. I've started being swayed that Glover isn't actually that shot yet when 7 ridiculous elbows didn't fully KO him...

I'd need to rewatch, but I thought he went out and then got woken up by the next one.
 
Any of you guys playing Perry/BC o1.5 at evens? That looks like value to me. Oliveira may well come to wrestle and that could mean lots of time ticking away against the cage. And Perry is pretty patient, he isn't super reckless standing. He's pretty basic and has power, but he takes his time looking for the opening to throw heat. Plus both guys pretty durable.

Assuming Perry doesn't get taken down and put in a really bad spot, I think this goes over 1.5.
 
I'd need to rewatch, but I thought he went out and then got woken up by the next one.
Your money, your call.
Late notice, decision machine, suspect chin, Corey Anderson beat Glover soundly. From a short right hand he had him buckling and hurt in the second round and probably should have rained down the punches to a stoppage. Third round Glover was basically no threat at all.
Late notice, undersized, Karl Roberson knocked Glover out with elbows and then reanimated him in the same sequence. I wonder if the ref was in a different place would he have stopped the fight. He runs over to get close, even leans forward to pull Roberson off and backs away when Glover flips over.
I will say though, Glover has a good autopilot mode. But I don't think he survives Ion's punches like he could Karl's and Corey's. To be worried about Ion gassing is odd. The pace of the Cannioner fight was ridiculous. Anything approaching that and Glover will look like a puddle of goo as much as Ion will.

Shamless plug...
 
Perry drinking Fanta and eating Fritos

 
Any of you guys playing Perry/BC o1.5 at evens? That looks like value to me. Oliveira may well come to wrestle and that could mean lots of time ticking away against the cage. And Perry is pretty patient, he isn't super reckless standing. He's pretty basic and has power, but he takes his time looking for the opening to throw heat. Plus both guys pretty durable.

Assuming Perry doesn't get taken down and put in a really bad spot, I think this goes over 1.5.
I'm on the over 1½ and BR Cowboy ML.
 
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