UFC on ESPN 3 Jacare vs Hermansson

mkess101 said:
Any of you guys playing Perry/BC o1.5 at evens? That looks like value to me. Oliveira may well come to wrestle and that could mean lots of time ticking away against the cage. And Perry is pretty patient, he isn't super reckless standing. He's pretty basic and has power, but he takes his time looking for the opening to throw heat. Plus both guys pretty durable.

Assuming Perry doesn't get taken down and put in a really bad spot, I think this goes over 1.5.
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1u on that and a bit on FGTD. Agree the only likely way it finishes early is a Cowboy Sub, if not then dec or late KO seems the most likely scenario, 2 tough guys to finish for sure.
 
Hunting other stuff for you guys...

I guess maybe you guys should play Sato rd 2 at +375. Lyman Good got Killa B out of there in rd 1 in his last fight. Prior to that his last FIVE losses were all in rd 2. So...round 2 isn't a good round for Ben. Might as well take a stab. Could be coincidence but could be it just takes most guys a round before they figure out his lanky awkward style and find his chin. (Moraes was on the mat but the rest were all standing KO/TKO losses iirc).
 
here are my picks sorry for late post all EASY MONEY BETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lima-Dec(+142)
Esquibel-Dec(+415)
Gonzales-Sub2(+115)
Burns-Wins by Dec(+385)
Jandiroba-Wins by dec(+200)
Sakai-Wins by KO(+211)
Sato- Wins in rd 2(+425)
Roberts-Wins by sub(+102)
Lineker-Wins by dec(+215)
Texeria-Wins by KO(+525)
Oliveria-Wins by Sub(+185)
Hardy Smolkiaov- NO Bet I like Hardy KO rd 1 though
Souza-Wins by sub(+125)

Lock them in now All easy money BETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
This goes against every fiber of my being but for some reason I have a feeling Hermannson finds a sub, likely a guillotine. Jacare is another level of grappler obviously but we've seen it before that inferior grapplers with a good squeeze who are willing to go for it can sub better grapplers. Likely if he gets the sub it's on an exhausted or hurt Jacare but I just have this gut feeling. +1400...so...
 
I've pushed the chips all in on Jacare. I think Hermansson is gonna find out pretty quickly that the top of the MW division is in a whole different class to his usual competition. Hermansson knows he has a solid test ahead of him but damn, I hope he didnt bet too big on himself.

Jacare lost his 1st pro mma fight.

His other 5 losses come at the hands of only the very best competition in the world.

Gastelum
Whittaker
Romero
Rockhold
Mousasi (this loss he avenged 6 years later)

That right there is one hell of a list and all of them could potentially beat one another on any given night.

There is a very very limited number of names that could possibly be said to belong among such an elite, top drawer group of middleweights. Souza is a name that belongs there, Hermansson isnt.
 
mkess101 said:
This goes against every fiber of my being but for some reason I have a feeling Hermannson finds a sub, likely a guillotine. Jacare is another level of grappler obviously but we've seen it before that inferior grapplers with a good squeeze who are willing to go for it can sub better grapplers. Likely if he gets the sub it's on an exhausted or hurt Jacare but I just have this gut feeling. +1400...so...
Click to expand...

I like that as a hedge to my Jacare action.
 
mkess101 said:
This goes against every fiber of my being but for some reason I have a feeling Hermannson finds a sub, likely a guillotine. Jacare is another level of grappler obviously but we've seen it before that inferior grapplers with a good squeeze who are willing to go for it can sub better grapplers. Likely if he gets the sub it's on an exhausted or hurt Jacare but I just have this gut feeling. +1400...so...
Click to expand...
I was thinking this too but he has good gnp as well. An exhausted, hurt Jacare is in Round 4 or 5. Herm4 is/was +1900 and Herm5 is/was +2600. If he's winning this thing, it's gonna be late.
 
Betting Hermansson sub is about the same as setting that money ablaze.
 
Sadistics said:
Betting Hermansson sub is about the same as setting that money ablaze.
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Man I hear you, but that's what people would have said before Rothwell/Barnett too. Obviously it's a long shot, like I said just a gut feeling. If anyone plays it, obviously it should be for peanuts.
 
FourHorsemen said:
I've pushed the chips all in on Jacare. I think Hermansson is gonna find out pretty quickly that the top of the MW division is in a whole different class to his usual competition. Hermansson knows he has a solid test ahead of him but damn, I hope he didnt bet too big on himself.

Jacare lost his 1st pro mma fight.

His other 5 losses come at the hands of only the very best competition in the world.

Gastelum
Whittaker
Romero
Rockhold
Mousasi (this loss he avenged 6 years later)

That right there is one hell of a list and all of them could potentially beat one another on any given night.

There is a very very limited number of names that could possibly be said to belong among such an elite, top drawer group of middleweights. Souza is a name that belongs there, Hermansson isnt.
Click to expand...

None of what you are saying is wrong. I think those that like the Joker as a dog are looking at the fact that Jacare is 39 years old, and put his body through the ringer training for his grappling career for years before he even started MMA. He just has WAY more mileage on his body than Hermannson does. Now, that doesn't mean that tonight that makes the difference, but it is a factor to consider.
 
FourHorsemen said:
I've pushed the chips all in on Jacare. I think Hermansson is gonna find out pretty quickly that the top of the MW division is in a whole different class to his usual competition. Hermansson knows he has a solid test ahead of him but damn, I hope he didnt bet too big on himself.

Jacare lost his 1st pro mma fight.

His other 5 losses come at the hands of only the very best competition in the world.

Gastelum
Whittaker
Romero
Rockhold
Mousasi (this loss he avenged 6 years later)

That right there is one hell of a list and all of them could potentially beat one another on any given night.

There is a very very limited number of names that could possibly be said to belong among such an elite, top drawer group of middleweights. Souza is a name that belongs there, Hermansson isnt.
Click to expand...

Only Whittaker & Mousasi finished him aka beat him convincingly. The Romero fight was a robbery & the Gastelum + Rockhold fights were very close.

I said it before here. Jacare is top 3 of all time. Jack‘s ceiling to me is the top 10 of the division, not the top 3 and I like the guy a lot lol.
 
mposhtkouhi said:
here are my picks sorry for late post all EASY MONEY BETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lima-Dec(+142)
Esquibel-Dec(+415)
Gonzales-Sub2(+115)
Burns-Wins by Dec(+385)
Jandiroba-Wins by dec(+200)
Sakai-Wins by KO(+211)
Sato- Wins in rd 2(+425)
Roberts-Wins by sub(+102)
Lineker-Wins by dec(+215)
Texeria-Wins by KO(+525)
Oliveria-Wins by Sub(+185)
Hardy Smolkiaov- NO Bet I like Hardy KO rd 1 though
Souza-Wins by sub(+125)

Lock them in now All easy money BETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...


I also like these event props not really Like lol but good odds for little money high payout 25$ on each!!!!!!!! 1 IS BOUND TO HIT THATS ALL I NEED
1- Fight ends in KO +3475
2- Fights end in KO+1079
8- Fights end in KO +2185
Realistically I see 4 fights ending in KO not great odds

0- Fights end in sub+3300
6- Fights end in Sub+1375
7- Fights end in Sub+3925
Realistically I see 4 fights ending in Sub

1- Fight goes to a Dec+8175
2- fights goes to a dec+1783
8- Fights goes to a dec+1400
Realistically I see 5 fights going to a dec
 
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