UFC Fight Night: Santos v Texeira

TrueAscension said:
Hill just lost to Claudia Gadelha in one of the worst decisions I've seen this year which is saying a lot. Claudia was a huge step up in competition from the cans she recently knocked out admittedly but she won 2/3 rounds in pretty convincing fashion. She's been the more active fighter and while she may not have the full arsenal that Watterson has, she hits with more power in my opinion.
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How was that a robbery? Clear 1-1 going into 3 and Claudia ever so slightly edged rd3
 
WolfgangKennelz said:
I hit with muniz for alot and hit overeem for a lesser amount.. i really honestly just didn't think pereira was that good and saw imadaev landing bombs on him w his boxing. I was woefully wrong... before imadaev I hit every fight. Then imadaev and menifield happened. O well.. imadaev will go down as one of my worst bets he literally got bitch slapped... but we look to the future
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Like they say, hindsight's always 20-20.
 
mmaday4day said:
Like they say, hindsight's always 20-20.
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Bro I'm alreasy past this weekend. People here are bringing it up lol. I kno the profit I been making year in year out in the fight game. In the last 8 months or so I've really upped the ante with large bets. No hindsight in this game
 
Completely forgot Roosevelt Roberts is fighting this weekend. Frevola by decision is sitting at +160. Easiest plus money of the week next to Angela Hill by decision.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Otman Azaitar at dog odds, hmmmmm

Worthy had alot of luck in previous fights
Fluke ko and lucky sub
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Fluke KO is wrong lol

But it's a pretty clear pick em fight where someone is getting blasted on the feet, so the dog is the right side. If you didn't get Worthy early, you're probably on Azaitar
 
mmaday4day said:
What you do with your money is your own business. But to be honest, putting 4500$ on a fighter like Imadaev is probably one of the worse bets I've seen in a long time. He has fought terrible competition; most of his opponents outside of the UFC have losing records and not surprisingly: Imadaev looked terrible in the UFC! When having the option to bet on good underdogs like Andre Muniz, Ovince St. Preux and Alistair Overeem, it still blows my mind that you somehow thought that it was a good idea to put money on a guy like Imadaev. I'm not trying to bust your balls here, but it was kind of a ridiculous bet to make. I had Pereira winning 9/10 times pre fight.
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Sorry but you're a fucking retard if you think Pereira was a justified favourite going into that fight

He won, but has 0 fight IQ and has gassed hard in most fights he's had previously

It's really easy to say "there were great betting lines elsewhere in the card that could win because they won", but just because a fighter won their fight doesn't mean they were necessarily the right side
 
Dog odds are a mad ting this week

Justine Kish fights pretty much the same fighter she just won against and is over +200. If you're betting Mazo you're basically betting on Kish's leg giving out, which is fair, but means you're on Mazo's KO line at +355. -130 for a decision is absurd against the WMMA Dominic Cruz

Alan Patrick at +200 is mad when Bobby Green's hand is jacked. I love Bobby, but he can tend towards inactivity unless his opponent really brings it to him, and Patrick's grappling is weirdly underrated in these parts (he's a fucking boa constrictor)

Schnell v Nam is no chin + speed v chin. Nam KO makes sense at +165, but if it goes the distance Schnell takes over via speed, youth and enthusiasm. Fair pick em

Ed Herman makes fights uglier than people seem to be expecting, if Rodriguez keeps the fight at range then he's fucked, but there's a more than 33% chance he takes the fight to a phone booth and Ed has the advantage there. He's weirdly not chinny for an old dude with fight miles and mad tough so I'm all over him at +218

Brok Weaver fucking sucks, but y'all have way more faith in Camacho's chin than I do

Not seeing the Kyle Neslon love. Nelson got his KO against a guy who looked afraid of grappling (hit him in the clinch). Grappling is Quarantillo's world. Puncher's chance needs to be greater than +200 odds for me

Roxy love is strange. She fucking sucks on the feet and Andrea is physically big enough that getting her to the ground and keeping her there isn't easy. Lee should school her on the feet, don't see a Roxy win here unless it's a finish (although at +650... Hmmm...)

Is there a reason people were on Montano v Avila previously and now nobody is on Sarge? Don't they have the same win condition? And roughly the same odds too. Avila is always live for a KO, but otherwise there's at least a 40% chance Sarge takes it
 
Tirimasuperman said:
Dog odds are a mad ting this week

Justine Kish fights pretty much the same fighter she just won against and is over +200. If you're betting Mazo you're basically betting on Kish's leg giving out, which is fair, but means you're on Mazo's KO line at +355. -130 for a decision is absurd against the WMMA Dominic Cruz

Alan Patrick at +200 is mad when Bobby Green's hand is jacked. I love Bobby, but he can tend towards inactivity unless his opponent really brings it to him, and Patrick's grappling is weirdly underrated in these parts (he's a fucking boa constrictor)

Schnell v Nam is no chin + speed v chin. Nam KO makes sense at +165, but if it goes the distance Schnell takes over via speed, youth and enthusiasm. Fair pick em

Ed Herman makes fights uglier than people seem to be expecting, if Rodriguez keeps the fight at range then he's fucked, but there's a more than 33% chance he takes the fight to a phone booth and Ed has the advantage there. He's weirdly not chinny for an old dude with fight miles and mad tough so I'm all over him at +218

Brok Weaver fucking sucks, but y'all have way more faith in Camacho's chin than I do

Not seeing the Kyle Neslon love. Nelson got his KO against a guy who looked afraid of grappling (hit him in the clinch). Grappling is Quarantillo's world. Puncher's chance needs to be greater than +200 odds for me

Roxy love is strange. She fucking sucks on the feet and Andrea is physically big enough that getting her to the ground and keeping her there isn't easy. Lee should school her on the feet, don't see a Roxy win here unless it's a finish (although at +650... Hmmm...)

Is there a reason people were on Montano v Avila previously and now nobody is on Sarge? Don't they have the same win condition? And roughly the same odds too. Avila is always live for a KO, but otherwise there's at least a 40% chance Sarge takes it
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There’s a lot of hot takes in this post, which seems to be a trend here now, but the one that stuck out to me is that betting on mazo is betting on kish’s leg to give out

I don’t see many scenarios where kish wins this fight. She lost to a low volume range fighter in Kim. Mazo has the range but throws almost three times as many strikes, not to mention she uses a kick heavy game plan to keep her opponents where she wants them.

Lucie pudilova lost to kish because she did nothing and was so bad that she was released from the ufc after that performance.
 
Weaver has 1 ko win (his first professional fight), and he is never gonna submit camacho. I dont really care that Camacho is chinny, i dont see Weaver having the power to take advantage of it. Other than that i really dont see Weaver's path to victory, push Camacho against the fence for 3 rounds?? I can't imagine it. As we have seen Jaynes is a very dangerous fighter in the first round, it was an embarrassing loss but not something Weaver is capable off. I have some big bets on Camacho, I think he is better everywhere and -200 is a very generous pricetag imo.
 
Broe. said:
Weaver has 1 ko win (his first professional fight), and he is never gonna submit camacho. I dont really care that Camacho is chinny, i dont see Weaver having the power to take advantage of it. Other than that i really dont see Weaver's path to victory, push Camacho against the fence for 3 rounds?? I can't imagine it. As we have seen Jaynes is a very dangerous fighter in the first round, it was an embarrassing loss but not something Weaver is capable off. I have some big bets on Camacho, I think he is better everywhere and -200 is a very generous pricetag imo.
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Camacho gassing after 1 round due to the pressure of weaver

has Camacho ever showed that he’s worth over -200?
 
I feel too confident with these but that's when i usually am the most wrong..

Under 2.5 rounds -115 Nam/Schnell (either a KO by Nam or Sub by Schnell)
Over 2.5 rounds +105 Weaver/Camacho (Camacho seems good enough to avoid the huge shots of weaver and weaver seems durable enough to last until the bell)
 
ill800 said:
There’s a lot of hot takes in this post, which seems to be a trend here now, but the one that stuck out to me is that betting on mazo is betting on kish’s leg to give out

I don’t see many scenarios where kish wins this fight. She lost to a low volume range fighter in Kim. Mazo has the range but throws almost three times as many strikes, not to mention she uses a kick heavy game plan to keep her opponents where she wants them.

Lucie pudilova lost to kish because she did nothing and was so bad that she was released from the ufc after that performance.
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Kish clearly won that fight, judges gave no fucks about her kicks lol
 
I've gotten so lazy with taping those fights...
The only one I genuinely taped is the Worthy fight and I got him at +120 2 weeks ago.
5u play on him, I'm very confident in this.
Other than that I'm pretty confident in Lee decision at -170.
Hill ML +Hill dec with a small hedge with Waterson submission.
I'have no idea how the Patrick-Green fight will play out but +210 for Patrick seems generous.

I want to tail @loller90278 on the over/unders but I need to put a bit of research into that...
 
ill800 said:
There’s a lot of hot takes in this post, which seems to be a trend here now, but the one that stuck out to me is that betting on mazo is betting on kish’s leg to give out

I don’t see many scenarios where kish wins this fight. She lost to a low volume range fighter in Kim. Mazo has the range but throws almost three times as many strikes, not to mention she uses a kick heavy game plan to keep her opponents where she wants them.

Lucie pudilova lost to kish because she did nothing and was so bad that she was released from the ufc after that performance.
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11/15 media members scored the Ji Yeon Kim fight for Kish
 
I'm gonna look into what Bellator has to offer this week.
UFC roster is fucking too big to have a read on every of their fighters...
Curiously, my ROI is crazy on the main and co main events (like +55%) but sucks on the smaller fights (like -20%).
 
Tirimasuperman said:
Sorry but you're a fucking retard if you think Pereira was a justified favourite going into that fight

He won, but has 0 fight IQ and has gassed hard in most fights he's had previously

It's really easy to say "there were great betting lines elsewhere in the card that could win because they won", but just because a fighter won their fight doesn't mean they were necessarily the right side
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First of all, starting a conversation with a stranger with "you're a fucking retard" is not only discourteous, but reflects a lack of good interpersonal skills to communicate factual information in a constructive way.

Fact is, Pereira dominated Imadaev from pillar to post. Accordingly, he WAS a justified favourite. Investment and risk evaluation often means being able to think out of the box - my research led me to the conclusion that Pereira is a good bet and it worked out as expected. End of story.

Facts are facts: Imadaev was a bad bet PRE-FIGHT and Andre Muniz, Ovince St. Preux and Alistair Overeem were all good underdogs PRE-FIGHT. That's why I bet Pereira, Andre Muniz, Ovince St. Preux and Alistair Overeem; individually and in parlays. I didn't expect to hit EVERY underdog, but the core of the statement was: why bet 4500$ on a volatile option like Imadaev, when you have other good underdogs available?
 
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