UFC 253: Adesanya v Costa

[benebox]

May put a cheeky punt on a Costa sub +2200 after watching this

 

[theTKDguy]

That was definitely albarracin's idea lol

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Damnit I wanted to live bet young and dawadu but their opponents might not gas anymore with missing so much weight ffs.

 

[PuertoRican]

May put a cheeky punt on a Costa sub +2200 after watching this

At first, I thought Costa pulled out a noose and threw it at Adesanya...

That would've been wild.

 

[TheFightDoctor]

Yea Tuk blatantly cheated. Missed weight by 5 pounds and didn't even try. Didn't look drained. Still gave a flex. I was strongly leaning his way, now I think its a value bet. However. Dawodu is still a very good live play. Slow starter dawodu vs a gas out fighter. Is dawodu better than lerone Murphy? I'm not sure... he's more athletic yes. But less physically strong and powerful tho. Think this is looking like Tukhugov W. I'd cap him closer to -175 now w the extra weight

 

[Card]

 

[Card]

 

[mmaday4day]

omg this is the funniest shit ever! Look at Dana lol

 

[po_thead]

Is it worth putting the house on Jake Matthews (-560)?

I just put a few bucks on Diego itd at +1365, ha

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Am I reaching or does Knight dec @ +850 sound possible? If he comes in with a grapple heavy game-plan, I can definitely see him winning a dec here.

 

[avid1]

Dawodu fight is on, no mention of klein fight.

 

[Kazda1]

Can someone explain the love on Eubanks? She is 35, tends to slow down, and won her last fight by grappling Avila to the ground, something she wont be able to do against Vieira, who is a better grappler all-around. Vieira is coming off a KO loss but Eubanks doesnt have the power to repeat a KO or hurt Vieira. I think Vieira will trade and set up take downs to dominate the rounds. I doubt she will be risking too much in the stand up after getting KOd.

Easy to say Eubanks doesn't have power but I think that "lack" of power was enough to scare off Avila, who I think is slightly better than Vieira. It was easy to see after taking a few shots Avila didn't want to engage those exchanges as the fight went on.

Aldana wasn't known to have power either (and I still don't think she does), it was just more the typical women's fighting style where they cant keep their chins out of the air that got Vieira in trouble last time out. Has she corrected that here? If not, same result could be likely. I don't see Eubanks doing anything else to be honest.

Thoughts?

 

[HockeyBjj]

Pure stunt? Or do we think there's a chance Costa tries using his size and strength in the grappling department for a sub rather than KO hunting as expected?

Anyone know of a Costa fight where he used takedowns to see if we think those will get Izzy to the ground?

 

[PuertoRican]

@Rebel_LioN is the dude who speaks first, and I am the dude who speaks second with the loud microphone.

My breakdown of the main event got cut off, so I posted some of what I said in my breakdown here:

Spoiler

Adesanya: Trained by Eugene Bareman – Adesanya, KKF, Riddell, and Young’s coach)

· via Joe Osborne of OddsShark.com: There have been 13 UFC title fights thus far in 2020. 9 of those 13 title fights went Over 2.5 rounds. 11 of the last 14 non-title main events have went Over 2.5 rounds.

· 6’4 vs. 6’1, 80 inch vs. 72 inch. 5 of 8 wins in the UFC went to a decision for Adesanya, and 2 of his 3 finishes ended Over 1.5 rounds; Costa 1 of 5 wins in the UFC went to a decision, and 3 of his 4 finishes were in Round 2. Big cage, which allows for more movement and less of a chance of finishing.

· UFC game (everyone on the cover loses afterward): Ronda, Conor, Conor again, Masvidal, and now Adesanya.

Costa: Trained by Eric Albarracin – Henry Cejudo & Patricio Pitbull’s coach, both champ-champs)

· He’s not a 1-punch KO artist like casuals think he is, he pressures people and throws a lot of arm punches instead of technical strikes.

o Stats and stuff:

§ Round 1 will be slow, as they’ll feel each other out. Costa won’t go hard and blow his wad in R1. After seeing how Romero fought against Adesanya, I think we’ll see Costa do his best to slow Adesanya down and limit his movement, like throwing more leg kicks, working the body (which he’s good at), and attempting to clinch against the cage (which makes it so Adesanya can’t throw any strikes, as he can only strike from a distance).

§ Run-in in the hotel lobby: both were super chill and they were joking at how slim each other was. The UFC and its employees tried to spin it and say how there is animosity there, and how their joking mood really meant something else. I’m not buying that BS. If they truly hated each other, they wouldn’t be cordial in a hallway, and wouldn’t be okay with the other person touching them.

o My Pick: Over 2.5 -115 on BAS (currently have $345 for $300), and we’ll see what line I can get when I arrive in Vegas, but I will risk whatever to win an additional $500.

As mentioned in the video, my most confident bets are Adesanya/Costa O2.5 -115, and Kai Kara France -225. I do like Eubanks and Dawodu.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Pure stunt? Or do we think there's a chance Costa tries using his size and strength in the grappling department for a sub rather than KO hunting as expected?

Anyone know of a Costa fight where he used takedowns to see if we think those will get Izzy to the ground?

He's never done takedown before and I don't like betting on someone on the merit of thinking they'll magically debut something new like that.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Izzy looks drained as fuck.

Even at the face offs, hours after the weigh ins, his face is still sunken in.

Lol @ Chael saying "he walks around at 188 and doesn't cut any weight".

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

The Greek Goof is on Adesanya. Dude just cursed him. The Eraser new champ confirmed.

 

[HockeyBjj]

He's never done takedown before and I don't like betting on someone on the merit of thinking they'll magically debut something new like that.

That was my recollection as well. Wanted to ask if I missed something in one of his debut fights before he fell in love with his power or something.

Trying to get Izzy to think TD to drop his hands on a fake level change to over hand is more likely. Or it’s just an opportunity to give some shit that’s available so why not

 

[Sono07]

Pure stunt? Or do we think there's a chance Costa tries using his size and strength in the grappling department for a sub rather than KO hunting as expected?

Anyone know of a Costa fight where he used takedowns to see if we think those will get Izzy to the ground?

Pretty dated but Costa grappled a bit in his TUF loss years ago. He goes for a few trips from the clinch, has some decent top control and even tries for a choke. This might be when he realized he didn't have the cardio for it though.

By r3 he pretty much falls on his face attempting a TD (15~ minutes in). I don't expect him to grapple but he definitely isn't lost on the ground.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Pretty dated but Costa grappled a bit in his TUF loss years ago. He goes for a few trips from the clinch, has some decent top control and even tries for a choke. This might be when he realized he didn't have the cardio for it though.

By r3 he pretty much falls on his face attempting a TD (15~ minutes in). I don't expect him to grapple but he definitely isn't lost on the ground.

Solid find. Didn’t think to look at TUF fights. Just seeing the belt stunt, RNC win on his record from a Brazil win before hitting UFC.

Good point about this maybe being the fight he gave up on that aspect except as defense due to his body type and the drain

Him trying to grapple and then not making it 5 rounds would be kinda funny