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Idk. Thats def the big question mark. On one hand, Goiti appears to be an amazing grappler, and Bubba has struggled with solid sub attempts. But on the other hand, Jenkins is one of the best wrestlers in the sport, and by far the best grappler Goiti has faced himself. Kobayashi is a boxer, so no surprise Goiti looked so good on the mat.bubba grapples = bubba loses, imo.
and as you said the standup should be close.
An argument can be made either way, but for this fight to be anyone's biggest bet of the year is a bit much imo.