UFC 199 - Los Angeles - Rockhold vs Bisping - 6/4/16

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oliverinsix said:
Hey everyone,

This my introductory post. Been on Sherdog since '09 and been lurking this forum for about a year in a half now since I started betting recreationally. Been using mostly Bovada since I had friends in California use it for other sports betting who verified it as legit. Dabbled in Draftkings for awhile too but not so much lately. I know a lot of you guys by name since I've been lurking for so long. Ez, Card, mma good fella, Joseph Budden, Ukram, Jae Gibz, ken, efalk, and piglord just to name a few (glad you've been killin it lately piglord, considering your situation!). Really want to thank you guys among many more I can't remember to name for all the valuable knowledge I've been able to benefit from. You guys have saved me more than a handful of times and I've found great success tailing a lot of your bets. I always follow the pbp when I watch each card and have rode many highs and lows with you guys.

The reason I'm posting is because I really want to start doing this more seriously and I've managed to save up a decent chunk of cash ($1k USD) to invest in a starting bankroll. I've had success and have made a few hundred long term, but it'd be nice to make enough to fund a vacation every couple months ;). I also felt guilty for relying on this place as a knowledgeable source for information for so long so I also wanted to thank you guys and begin contributing back to the community. I just signed up for 5Dimes last night so I can begin taking advantage of all the early prop bets. Seems to be the bookie most of you use that has the best odds and variety of props and Bovada's pretty bad about props and only releases prop lines once the card starts so it's hard to profit off those. Anyways I'm glad to just finally not be a stranger anymore and look forward to killin' it with you all!

TL/DR - Been following the forum a long time, posting now to thank you all, join the community, and begin placing larger bets that could actually affect my quality of life now that I've saved up a decent $1k bankroll.

Unrelated but it's also my birthday today!
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Welcome brother! Thanks for the kind words and happy you have joined us.

Nothing to feel guilty about in lurking on our bets, this place of a wealth of information through open discussions from the most knowledgeable guys on this forum and all of the stuff we share (mainly Card lol) that gives further insights and food for thought.

We are in the same boat brother, i'm fairly new to this game and have fallen in love with what kind of money I can make through just loving MMA so much. I saw my first 1k breakthrough back in Jan and your post brought back memories of that feeling
 
So looks like we'll be waiting til tomorrow for lines?

This was a buzkill to my gambler's wet dream where in July we had full props for the three events in three days and South Dakota card up at the same time
 
looks like i'm gonna be the only one on bisping here. uncharacteristic for me as i'm normally pretty big on favs.
 
Johnbmma1 said:
I am putting a bit on Bisping as well
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How do you see him winning? Betting ML or dec, or are you brave enought to think he can stop Rockhold?
 
piglord said:
looks like i'm gonna be the only one on bisping here. uncharacteristic for me as i'm normally pretty big on favs.
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Going large? I like it ML but max is somewhere like 2.5 units and I'd try a little hedge with something like an over 1.5 with 2.5 units too.
 
Someone who could tell me what ML stands for? I´ve searched but cannot find an answer. Sorry for my ignorance to all you experts. Is it majority something or?
 
theantso said:
Someone who could tell me what ML stands for? I´ve searched but cannot find an answer. Sorry for my ignorance to all you experts. Is it majority something or?
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Moneyline. Picking a fighter to win outright (2 ways, bet gets pushed in case of draw).
 
Sham5916910 said:
Three team! I have two different parlays one for £500 with Rockhold Cruz and RDA and £1k with Rockhold Cruz and TJ.
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Love seeing your bets Sham! Once again I hope you´ll make a KILLING ON IT!

I´m wondering though. I assume TJ is dillashaw and RDA rafael dos anjos right? In that case, why not just make a parlay for Rockhold/Cruz. You´d get the money right away and wouldn´t have to wait. You´d still be able to do the best on RDA and the one with TJ later on, and you´d not risk having a bet if osmething unfortunate would happen.

is it because the odds are the best you can get right now due to RDA/Tj being huge favorites so its better to make the parlay now to get the best odds? I guess a rule of thumb favorites = bet earlier, dogs= bet late?
Or is there another reason for it?

I´m asking because I thought you got better odds when doing parlays, but found out you don´t. So i dont like parlays at all now or see the advantage when its not done over one night. I can see it making sense if you got better odds due to being so early tho, is that the case?
 
Shoulder said:
How do you see him winning? Betting ML or dec, or are you brave enought to think he can stop Rockhold?
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A finish, I like big underdogs at higher weight classes. If he comes in looking for a finish like he says he will, I think he will have a better chance than with how he usually fights playing on the outside. It's definitely worth a small bet IMO. He has been waiting for this moment his whole career, I think he has a punchers chance. Not banking on him winning though.
 
Johnbmma1 said:
A finish, I like big underdogs at higher weight classes. If he comes in looking for a finish like he says he will, I think he will have a better chance than with how he usually fights playing on the outside. It's definitely worth a small bet IMO. He has been waiting for this moment his whole career, I think he has a punchers chance. Not banking on him winning though.
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Good point. It´s definitely his best shot. Kind of like Werdum and Stipe happened. Werdum comign in overconfident but skilled, while Stipe had been waiting so long for this. So werdum just wasted his skills and lost. Thats Bispings best bet that Luke underestimates him and sees the fight won before it even happened. Knowing Luke though, that does not seem likely at all. And Bisping has not KO´ed anybody so its near impossible. That said if it happens a first round stoppage or second round for bisping with these odds is probably the best bet to get some roi. He´s definitely underrated by the bookies, but still if he does not win good odds does little for you.
 
Anyone here think Bobby Green has value as an underdog at +180 ?
 
Bless said:
1.375u @ Cruz by dec -137
11.75u @ Rockhold ~-392


Probably will hedge off about half of the action on Rockhold, depending on how confident others in this subforum are on him :D
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Where did you get that awesome odd for Rockhold ??
 
if not rockhold itd or rockhold decision gets better I will propably put a flyer on it

maybe bisping can survive until the final bell, not likely but the line on rockhold is crazy, 100 to win 10 on anybody is kind of nutz, you need 9/10 just to break even
 
theantso said:
Love seeing your bets Sham! Once again I hope you´ll make a KILLING ON IT!

I´m wondering though. I assume TJ is dillashaw and RDA rafael dos anjos right? In that case, why not just make a parlay for Rockhold/Cruz. You´d get the money right away and wouldn´t have to wait. You´d still be able to do the best on RDA and the one with TJ later on, and you´d not risk having a bet if osmething unfortunate would happen.

is it because the odds are the best you can get right now due to RDA/Tj being huge favorites so its better to make the parlay now to get the best odds? I guess a rule of thumb favorites = bet earlier, dogs= bet late?
Or is there another reason for it?

I´m asking because I thought you got better odds when doing parlays, but found out you don´t. So i dont like parlays at all now or see the advantage when its not done over one night. I can see it making sense if you got better odds due to being so early tho, is that the case?
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Cos I'm greedy and like my parlays to return at least -120! TJ and RDA are IMO the two safest plays of any other odds currently available to add to Rockhold and Cruz. Plus I don't mind having money tied up for a few months fortunately my br is very healthy.
 
susanto said:
Where did you get that awesome odd for Rockhold ??
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WilliamHill opened his line at -350 but i put only a little on it, after that other Eurobookies opened the line at -400 so that's when i placed the majority of the bet.
 
Bless said:
WilliamHill opened his line at -350 but i put only a little on it, after that other Eurobookies opened the line at -400 so that's when i placed the majority of the bet.
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So gutted i missed it by an hour or so. Was -600 by time i placed a bet. Got -450 at Betsafe tho.
 
Kim (not stun gun but the other one) A well rounded fighter, athletic and good volume striker, likes to keep out of range and throw leg kicks to opponents and work dirty boxing during clinches sporting a 6kos, 5subs across an 13-7 record.

Here is his last ko loss fight against steele with that lovely slam ko


full fight on fp here:
http://www.ufc.tv/video/henderson-vs-masvidal-fight-pass-prelims

Another one here:
http://tvpot.daum.net/clip/ClipView.do?clipid=67072500&rtes=y&startDuration=403.07099999999997

Marco polo
former latin tuf competitior, a striker style fighter but has shown he can also wrestle and secure take downs with decent gnp. 5-2 record (mainly low tier fighters with more Ls then Ws) he has shown heart and an chin in his past fights and willing to get his own powerful strikes in.

Shaky cam of his last ufc fight and win via ko


few other YT fights




I think this fight should start the event off well, kim throws volume and has decent cardio and has that judo background, while marco really does go all out and happy to eat punches to trade his own here, I could see marco trying to get his gnp going or heavier power strikes to do more damage, give the edge to marco here but barely.


 
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