UFC 213 - Nunes vs Shevchenko II - Vegas

[Ballsaque]

i have omie at +1400 by decision.

I realize that but what makes you say that's a middle?

 

[wack3d]

I realize that but what makes you say that's a middle?

if omie wins R1 or R2 he can "freeroll" both sides

 

[ill800]

Where did you find this info?

Solid

Twitter, Joey oddessa retweeted it

 

[Yotsuya]

Werdum on the other hand hasn't showed us any chin issues, nor a tendency to fall apart when things don't go his way.

Werdum does not fall apart, he explodes. Stipe tagged Werdum and he went for the kill failing completely. Overeem was extremely close of finishing Stipe and then fell apart. Their mental weaknesses are opposite sides of the coin, which makes this match-up so fun.

 

[cberasi]

Isn't +800 wins by KO/TKO for Silva de Andrade high? 19/25 fights he won by KO/TKO. Font took the kitchen sink from Lineker without going down but this should mostly be a standup fight and de Andrade has power, knocked out Briones right after Garbrandt couldn't and +800 is up there...

 

[quincy k]

if omie wins R1 or R2 he can "freeroll" both sides

it is possible. the opportunity presented itself in the hamilton fight.
and you can do a lot of middling when sitting on a +1400

 

[quincy k]

He should never be over -150 with that chin. Overeem is the definition of a fighter that can easily go from "damn hes looking good" to "he's out cold!" in an instant. The turning the back and running to reset habit he's picked up is going to screw him at some point as well

there is a chance that rheem will be -250 or 300 after teh first round and werdum will be a great live bet if hes not down 10-8

 

[quincy k]

I realize that but what makes you say that's a middle?

my guess is that blaydes will be at worst a -500 going into the 3rd if he loses either round 1 or round 2 and i doubt omie gets a finish in the third unless blaydes gasses

i just need one round and for the fight to get into the 3rd

 

[MMA Goodfella]

did Overeem look like a -300 favorite in that fight?

I expected this question lol

Answer..
It was hard to say...most awkward HW superfight maybe ever. With Werdum constantly flopping to his back there was no rhythm to be had. That said Reem won 30-27 on at least two cards IIRC. I remember think Werdum did well but thinking Reem clearly won.

I just think stylistically Reem is a terrible MU for a now FORTY year old Werdum.

If you're going to build the perfect person to beat to beat Werdum you would construct a K1 level kickboxer with virtually impenetrable take down defense. Meet Alistair Overeem.

The only thing that holds me back from going multi units on Reem is the area between his ears. It wasn't constructed with the same structural integrity as his marble carved chassis. He can melt down. Get punked. And wilt. Vitor. Rumble. Melvin. Tito. Reem.

Nevertheless, I think Werdum has hit a wall and Reem still has the same speed and power on top of years of kickboxing technique.

 

[EzFlyer]

Damn Im worried that Whittaker damaged his ankle during this media workout. Im going on the Romero train, he looks in Best shape and always finds a way to win fight.. besides Robert maybe damaged his ankle what will affect his tdd

Don't let that mini ankle roll dictate anything man, it likely is a complete non-factor

 

[Bastaille]

Whittaker will put so much pressure standing on romero. Romero will try to take him down Romero will gass hard after 2-3 rounds and whittaker will piece him up on the feet. Voilà .

 

[Sham5916910]

I expected this question lol

Answer..
It was hard to say...most awkward HW superfight maybe ever. With Werdum constantly flopping to his back there was no rhythm to be had. That said Reem won 30-27 on at least two cards IIRC. I remember think Werdum did well but thinking Reem clearly won.

I just think stylistically Reem is a terrible MU for a now FORTY year old Werdum.

If you're going to build the perfect person to beat to beat Werdum you would construct a K1 level kickboxer with virtually impenetrable take down defense. Meet Alistair Overeem.

The only thing that holds me back from going multi units on Reem is the area between his ears. It wasn't constructed with the same structural integrity as his marble carved chassis. He can melt down. Get punked. And wilt. Vitor. Rumble. Melvin. Tito. Reem.

Nevertheless, I think Werdum has hit a wall and Reem still has the same speed and power on top of years of kickboxing technique.

Just watched Reem and Werdum. In total agreement Reem has looked real good even in defeat to Stipe. He has nearly perfected his new method of out fighting. If tonight goes well i will be betting Reem for sure.

 

[Ballsaque]

my guess is that blaydes will be at worst a -500 going into the 3rd if he loses either round 1 or round 2 and i doubt omie gets a finish in the third unless blaydes gasses

i just need one round and for the fight to get into the 3rd

A middel is where you cash two lines at once, but I get what you mean.

 

[rille31]

my guess is that blaydes will be at worst a -500 going into the 3rd if he loses either round 1 or round 2 and i doubt omie gets a finish in the third unless blaydes gasses

i just need one round and for the fight to get into the 3rd

if you think omy can win one round maybe omy +3.5 +400?

 

[Jamah]

 

[quincy k]

if you think omy can win one round maybe omy +3.5 +400?

i never looked into the minus or 5.5 and should have. evr since i lost on bising -5.5 against hendo ive done awa iht poinst handicap

 

[MMA Goodfella]

there is a chance that rheem will be -250 or 300 after teh first round and werdum will be a great live bet if hes not down 10-8

This I can agree with! Let me clarify and further elucidate on my thinking that Reem should be -275 or so. Firstly, I suppose that I'm being a bit hyperbolic in that figure. However, I just like Reem regarding the stylistic matchup of the two fighters. Now normally if a fighter is -130 and you cap them at -275 you throw down a stack. Well, Reem is the exception to that rule. Mentally you just never know how he will react and he can let his opponent snatch victory from the jaws of defeat like only a Sonnen or Vitor could.

Nevertheless, I am confident, and will be playing him for a couple units. However, I would usually make this a max bet given my personal line as opposed to the books.

Lastly, let me reiterate why I think Reem may be getting a bit underrated and unfairly pigeonholed as a feeble minded glass cannon set on the audio fade list of many.

Remove the Stipe fight — as the champ is crumbling EVERYONE — and you get a fighter who has been KO'd 3 times in 23 fights. That's THREE times in TWENTY-THREE fights in the HW division.

Further, this spans NINE years!

This is extremely impressive considering that he fights in the HW division. That is the the division with the highest percentage of KO finishes. Specifically, as of 2016 you have 77.6% of the UFC heavyweight fights ending in a finish.

So Reem is getting finished 13% of the time over nine years. That's really remarkable actually.

Furthermore, as mentioned, the KO losses were in bizarre circumstances. The first to Browne came in a fight where he nearly beat a man to death and just ran out of steam. He's corrected this approach.

The other KO coming in the 3rd round to Bigfoot Silva where he was up two rounds. In hindsight it's not as bad as it appeared at the time. Like Reem, in 2013 BF was juiced to the fucking gills and not only survived three rounds of Ubereem but shortly thereafter withstood 25-minutes worth of bunker busting bombs from possibly the hardest hitter in the division in Mark Hunt.

His only other loss came to what was at the time a supernatural Ben Rothwell who had won 6 of 7 fights. That was six finishes in seven fights. Including snatching Brendan Schaub's soul, flatlining Matt Mitrione, clubbing Brandon Vera like a caveman and forcing the seemingly "untappable" Josh Barnett to instantaneously tap to a standing guillotine. Once again, it's safe to say, that with hindsight — like BF — that is not as bad a loss as it once seemed.

Fairly or unfairly, at this stage of his career Reem has been permanently typecast in the minds of fans and bettors alike. It's like John Wayne. You couldn't imagineWayne playing the role of an accountant or a newspaper editor. No. "The Duke" is always going to be that whitehat Cowboy or war hero fighting injustice. Similarly, Overeem is always going to be that glass jawed airhead that crumbles under pressure.

Accomplishments be damned, rightly or wrongly, stats or no stats, that's just how it is, Pilgrim.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Just watched Reem and Werdum. In total agreement Reem has looked real good even in defeat to Stipe. He has nearly perfected his new method of out fighting. If tonight goes well i will be betting Reem for sure.

BOL brother Shamwow!

 

[Orion]

Remove the Stipe fight — as the champ is crumbling EVERYONE — and you get a fighter who has been KO'd 3 times in 23 fights. That's THREE times in TWENTY-THREE fights in the HW division.

Further, this spans NINE years!

This is extremely impressive considering that he fights in the HW division. That is the the division with the highest percentage of KO finishes. Specifically, as of 2016 you have 77.6% of the UFC heavyweight fights ending in a finish.

So Reem is getting finished 13% of the time over nine years. That's really remarkable actually.

Furthermore, as mentioned, the KO losses were in bizarre circumstances. The first to Browne came in a fight where he nearly beat a man to death and just ran out of steam. He's corrected this approach.

The other KO coming in the 3rd round to Bigfoot Silva where he was up two rounds. In hindsight it's not as bad as it appeared at the time. Like Reem, in 2013 BF was juiced to the fucking gills and not only survived three rounds of Ubereem but shortly thereafter withstood 25-minutes worth of bunker busting bombs from possibly the hardest hitter in the division in Mark Hunt.

His only other loss came to what was at the time a supernatural Ben Rothwell who had won 6 of 7 fights. That was six finishes in seven fights. Including snatching Brendan Schaub's soul, flatlining Matt Mitrione, clubbing Brandon Vera like a caveman and forcing the seemingly "untappable" Josh Barnett to instantaneously tap to a standing guillotine. Once again, it's safe to say, that with hindsight — like BF — that is not as bad a loss as it once seemed.

The Browne/BF fight's are exactly what I was talking about how Reem can go from owning shit to getting flatlined. Also, if we're going to mention that Rothwell was on a supernatural spree, you should also mention that the majority of those 23 fights had Overeem juiced to the gills in destroyer mode. The more relevant record to reference is him post-Lesnar. There isn't much of a point to padding his record by including fights like James Thompson, Todd Duffee, Fujita, Goodridge, and Tony Sylvester where he was injecting the entire pharmacy to boot.

If you look at his record post-science experiment and remove the Stipe fight, he's 6-3 over 4 years with 3 KO losses, and wins over an 0-5 Arlovski, 43 year old Hunt, a 2-5 Roy Nelson, and Stefan Struve. Even his best recent win in JDS is a fighter that isn't quite what he used to be at 3-4 in 5 years.

I just can't cap him at anything over -150 against a recent champ.

 

[jrleclerc88]

Romero always makes me profit. Him ITD +220 is a steal.

Looked like he was gonna die @ weigh in