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UFC 216 - Ferguson vs Lee - Vegas

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 4, 2017.

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  1. rille31 Brown Belt

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    maybe its decaff ;)
     
  2. 2bet Green Belt

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    I am on Werdum, but I wouldn't be mad at all if he gets knocked out by BB.

    BB is such a funny and likeable guy, a real character
     
  3. AmericanBeauty Blue Belt

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    Chael predicts Ferguson to win.
    Are you guys still confident on Ferguson?
     
  4. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    I just went huge on Faria.

    Borella is 31 and her best wins are split decisions vs fighters that are below UFC caliber. She was also knocked out 3x in a row by sub-UFC fighters just 2 years ago. She has no special qualities and is a garbage late replacement who doesn't belong in UFC

    Faria OTOH has been feasting on competition similar to Borella for years. Completely dominating every time. Damm x2, Sucevic, Balin, Serio x2, Sattelmayer all similar to Borella or just a bit worse, and as far as I know Faria only lost one round in those fights in her 49-45 x3 victory vs Damm.

    Faria also fought Karolina Kowalkiewicz and arguably won, but lost a split decision with Karolina being at home in Poland. And her only recent bad performance is a unanimous loss to Jessica Aguilar who is a UFC fighter who is drastically better than Borella.

    Faria still has a lot to prove against UFC caliber competition, but against sub-UFC fighters she dominates and Mara Romero Borella does not belong in UFC.
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2017
  5. turbozed Red Belt

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    Agree with you about the level of competition advantage to Faria. Here's what I wrote a couple days ago somewhere else. I'm not going large because Borella seems to have physical gifts and is improving:

    Was really looking for a reason to bet Mara Borella again at underdog odds after she made us some cash against Dudieva. Ended up watching tape and instead really liking Kalindra Faria here.

    Borella isn't very technical but has physical gifts. Long reach and appears to be a bit stronger than her opponents. Her striking is extremely wooden, however. She beat Dudieva in her last fight but Dudieva is just a terrible fighter. If you look through Borella's record, she basically loses to any competition over 50/50 (maybe one exception or two, but they were terrible fighters too).

    Unfortunately for Borella, Kalindra Faria looks even stronger and more menacing than Borella does. Faria is built like a dude and seems to dwarf her competition. Seems a weight class bigger than Borella in the staredown below (obviously its hard to tell because Faria probably wearing heels and Borella is in a hoody). Faria is a better striker and can probably move her head away from the centerline to avoid Borella's long but very telegraphed monkey arm punches. Faria seems to be able to transition well from striking to a takedown (bodylock, trip, etc.). From there she's able to just maintain top control. She leaves her neck exposed but I don't think Borella can capitalize (at least she doesn't have a choke SUB yet in her career). This fight seems like one of those fights where whichever girl with the poor technique bodylock or head/arm throw hits the takedown wins the round and eventually the fight. I'm thinking Faria can do this for all three rounds. Or she can keep it standing where she also has the advantage.

    Oh and Borella is coming in on short notice. -190 might even have value here.
     
  6. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    Good writeup!

    I'm not too worried about Borella's improvements though-- she's 31, still has 0 convincing wins, and there's a limit to how much you can improve from 3 straight KO losses to scrubs in 2 years at this age.

    She still has a bad habit of backing against the cage where she will get ravaged by Faria's superior strength + technique, and she has shown that she doesn't have much of a chin. And she didn't show anything against Dudieva that looked like it may give Faria trouble.

    I think this line should be about as juiced as Bibulatov/Moraga. Faria gonna dominate
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    I don't Agree with huge bet on faria. Borella is better now than all of her stoppage losses. Trains wirh nunes and shit now. More fit.

    But gl either way. I hedged my borella action to small.
     
  8. drewzoo25 White Belt

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    Hey guys,

    I see a lot of people on this site really liking Werdum tonight. I'm fairly new to following the sport, and was hoping I could get some insight as to why this might be the case. Thanks
     
  9. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Cause hes better everywhere
     
  10. edole Brown Belt

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  11. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    man i just don't like beltran the more and more i think about it , haha. as flawed as schnell is, idk if beltran can exploit his chin etc. freerolled the opener i hit entirely. still like DNGD and U1.5, etc, tho.
     
  12. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    only a few people have played his moneyline, tho. price dictates play. if he was even $, everyone on the board would be on him. at -250, mehhh. props are prolly a better option.

    i think he wins, obviously, but i'm nervous for a couple people who are huge on it. risky for not a ton of reward.

    lewis is an overrated power guy, tho. those of us who have watched his career know he's way more dangerous in top control than he is on the feet. and he has had to come from behind to beat gassed dudes who were styling on him what, 5 times? more? his best asset is his durability, arguably (besides that ground and pound), but that seems to be faltering a bit.

    if werdum was 240 and in shape, i'd probably be playing -3.5 points or something. as is, just small props.
     
  13. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    wow some big FOTN props, wish they did this all the time, and it makes sense with a couple very likely candidates at the top of the card (meaning the prices SHOULD be a lot better on other stuff)

    added micro stabs on +2200 fotn for schnell-beltran and gonzalez-botelho, both should (could) be high-paced

    still very much want lee-ferguson FOTN +350 to cash, mind you =P
     
  14. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Borella has improved, Faria **should** still win.

    But "went huge" on a WMMA fight that isn't Cyborg beating up some overmatched 135'er or JJ against someone 10 skill levels below her?

    Man...good luck. I used to think people were overblowing the higher level of variance in WMMA vs the men. Not anymore. Barring a few exceptions, WMMA is much harder to cap imo.
     
  15. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Biggest on Harris and Bibs. Both in my round robin, 1.5u on a double with them, played Harris straight when he was -210, plus plays on Harris itd and Bibs dec.

    Also big on Ferg between his ml straight and round robin and itd.

    1u on Stamann.

    2u between the o4.5 and DJ unan dec. Think Borg is gonna make this a very compelling fight for 25 mins and is being a bit overlooked as to how competitive he could possibly make this. Though obviously expecting a loss when i'm on DJ unan dec. Think this will look kind of like the Elliott fight.

    Leites NSC.

    Other round robin inclusions are o2.5 in Benny/Dunham and Leites/Tav and Werdum. Will also hit Werddum -3.5 if night is going well.
     
  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I'm on MM unan dec too, but in hindsight I'm a little worried about Borg's previous weight cutting issues and how badly he might fade (assuming he does keep it mildly competitive early on). I suppose if Borg looks good enough early and maybe even steals a round we could see something like -350 for MM live? Fights with such massive favorites like this are so bizarre to bet.
     
  17. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I'm only worried about Borg's cardio if he starts getting beaten up. But if he doesn't let that happen or can make this mainly a grappling match, i'm not worried. Trains in altitude and looked fine going all 3 vs Formiga. And yeah honestly wouldn't be surprised if Borg stole a round just in a crazy scramble round. Elliot kind of exploited how super aggressive grappling could be effective vs DJ, and I have no doubts Borg is a better grappler than Elliott and has no problems with fast paced grappling exchanges. People really seem to be overlooking this and writing Borg off hard, but i'm actually very excited for this fight.
     
  18. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    I'm just worried about Werdum's physical condition. I mean, he is coming into the fight at his heaviest weight in at least a decade and is 40 now. Around 2010 in the middle of the strikeforce run and then entering back into the UFC, he quickly blossomed into a completely different fighter. Specifically, he was much more fit and athletic. Furthermore, his striking had progressed immensely. It really seemed like he turned this corner after the second Reem fight. Which is understandable since he was fighting I juiced out monster I'm probably thought that has all the way to remain competitive is to take his loan gummy bear juice. I mean, he couldn't budge let alone take Reem down in that fight. Every time he went for a TD it was like he was hitting a brick wall.

    Of course there is no proof — and I don't like making accusations — but with his physical change and his sudden athletic enhancement, damnit if there's not a fucking forest fire worth of smoke LOL

    Add in to the mix thathe was training out of nova uniao and it just exacerbates my suspicions. The massive improvements came when nova uniao was pumping out more champions and top contenders than the Kronk Gym in the 80s. From Jacare and RDA to Aldo to Barao.... Then them plunging post USADA means you have to be utterly the most naïve person on the planet not to have suspicions. Additionally, his aesthetic alterations came before USADA and subsequently plummeted afterwards. Again more smoke.

    A So you just have to wonder which Fabricio we are going to be getting. Will it be the Fabricio who smoked Cain in Mexico or the Fabricio who looked like hot garbage against Travis Browne and Reem last two outings?

    I still think he beats Derrick Lewis regardless, but if we are to get 70% of prime Werdum it would be a straight wash. Where Fabricio gets the take some down, passes guard like a hot knife through butter then grabs a limb and as whatever he wants with it. Now it's going to be a bit closer perhaps?
     
  19. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah I think there could be some great scrambling. With Borg though, even though he's probably a better overall grappler than Elliot is, I'm not sure he can be as heavy on top. Meaning Borg is a better scrambler, better at advancing position, better with subs. But those are all areas that MM excels too. Elliot's success came more in just holding MM down for some stretches, didn't it? I'd need to rewatch, maybe he was more aggressive than I remember. Maybe Borg is capable of that? Not sure. Or maybe he actually gets the better of some scrambles? But man, MM just seems like he's playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers.
     
  20. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I think comparing the Smolka fights is a great example of Borg being better at control. Elliott has honestly never been a control grappler though, scrambles like crazy. Smolka fight was no different. Borg shut all of that down vs Smolka though.

    Na Elliott's success came from fighting like a madman lol just charging DJ on the feet and scrambling and sub attempts like crazy. Borg will definitely not be fighting that aggressively, but if he can create scrambles i'm very interested how successful he'll be and would guess he'll make this fun rather than get obliterated.
     
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