UFC 238 Cejudo vs Moraes

Stunna77 said:
That is a very flawed logic, its mma, shit happens. Getting finished when you are soundly ahead doesn't mean it was too much too soon. It means a very opportunistic striker landed a kill shot. I don't think it was luck at all, nor do I really think more experience would have helped Bevon in that situation. He just got caught.

Stewart just lost to a much worse prospect in Edmen, who has a very similar amount of experience as Bevon, is way greener, and doesn't come from a high level camp.
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This is misplaced certainty. I'm considering a small play on Bevon on his current odds, but the issue with him is his glass chin. (I'm kicking myself for missing Stewart's KO line when it was over +400)

The fight could very easily play out the same way Lewis-Hall OR Stewart-Byrd did, with one guy dominating the fight only to get suddenly knocked out.

He didn't "just get caught" against Hall, either. Bevon started slowing down near the end of round 2, in response to which Hall started fighting more energetically. Bevon was also getting very predictable with the same 1-2 or overhand right over and over, and finally, Hall timed him coming in. The punch would oridinarily stun a fighter, but against Lewis, he was knocked out cold.

Calling Stewart a "much worse prospect than Edmen" is silly, too. Edmen dominated Stewart with his wrestling for the first 2 rounds, not the easiest thing to do. Bevon hasn't shown anywhere near that level of grappling.
 
Degen action coming at ya. Medium On KK-115, JoJo 2.0 -105, Moraes -130, small on Lamas +130.

Considering Aljo still. Pedro makes me nervous might stay away together. Good luck guys..
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
This is misplaced certainty. I'm considering a small play on Bevon on his current odds, but the issue with him is his glass chin. (I'm kicking myself for missing Stewart's KO line when it was over +400)

The fight could very easily play out the same way Lewis-Hall OR Stewart-Byrd did, with one guy dominating the fight only to get suddenly knocked out.

He didn't "just get caught" against Hall, either. Bevon started slowing down near the end of round 2, in response to which Hall started fighting more energetically. Bevon was also getting very predictable with the same 1-2 or overhand right over and over, and finally, Hall timed him coming in. The punch would oridinarily stun a fighter, but against Lewis, he was knocked out cold.

Calling Stewart a "much worse prospect than Edmen" is silly, too. Edmen dominated Stewart with his wrestling for the first 2 rounds, not the easiest thing to do. Bevon hasn't shown anywhere near that level of grappling.
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Edmen is super young, so maybe much worse prospect isn't accuarte, but at their current forms, Bevon is much better than Edmen. I haven't rewatched, but Edmen isn't a very good wrestler, it was moreso a gameplan that Stewart wasn't prepared for in the least since Edmen had been a pure striker up to that point with sub 1 minute KO's.
 
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ApplesVild said:
I hate how people will favour a fighter to win but then actually play the 'value side', the value is always in picking a winner to me. If you don't feel confident is someone winning, which none of you seem to be confident in Lamas then don't play him.
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I am sure this has been addressed, as I am days behind reading this thread, but...anyone that is successful at betting long-term knows that there is money to be made betting value - even if you're not super confident someone will win. In the long-run, it's the right way to bet. There are so many examples of big underdogs where I felt the odds were out of wack - even if I didn't feel a fighter was definitely going to win - and last week in boxing with Ruiz at +1300 over Joshua is a perfect example.
 
Monster Meat said:
True but tony is coming off a long layoff and that whole thing with his wife was a bit concerning. Just pointing out that he has some red flags as well.
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Exactly, unlike the Cowboy Tony was given no promotional fights.
I would have some cautions on this one.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Degen action coming at ya. Medium On KK-115, JoJo 2.0 -105, Moraes -130, small on Lamas +130.

Considering Aljo still. Pedro makes me nervous might stay away together. Good luck guys..
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This year could be the comeback year for both Jimmy and Pedro. So anything can happen on fight night.
Its easy to bet but the outcome will be harder.
 
MikeK1989 said:
Any idea why the Bevon / Stewart line is dropping in favor of Stewart. I was super high on Stewart when the odds first came out but a lot of you changed my mind. Now the odds are -175 for Bevon
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FIrst off you should never let other people’s opinion sway you, and half of this forum these days is the blind leading the blind. it’s good to use opinions for something you may have missed or overlooked but always stick to your guns if you have a strong read and did your homework. If the bet loses then learn and breakdown what went wrong and try not to make the same mistake twice.

Every good bettors goes through learning curves and a rough pace before they become great, that’s the name of the game unless you don’t learn from your mistakes.
 
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Stunna77 said:
That is a very flawed logic, its mma, shit happens. Getting finished when you are soundly ahead doesn't mean it was too much too soon. It means a very opportunistic striker landed a kill shot. I don't think it was luck at all, nor do I really think more experience would have helped Bevon in that situation. He just got caught.

Stewart just lost to a much worse prospect in Edmen, who has a very similar amount of experience as Bevon, is way greener, and doesn't come from a high level camp.
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Edmen would smoke Bevon
 
Stunna77 said:
The odds of that happening are very similar to the odds you are a winning gambler..
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IF Bevon wins than maybe they will fight each other because they both are prospects. Edmen is for sure a prospect, Bevon is a bum prospect
 
I'm hearing a lot of Bevon has a glass but I don't think that's necessarily the case. Bevon is at his best moving forward but he is wide open for counters as he drops his hands most of the time. On the flip side when he is pressured he gets uncomfortable and defensively liable. From what I have seen so far Bevon is more of an athlete than a fighter but he is growing
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
He didn't "just get caught" against Hall, either. Bevon started slowing down near the end of round 2, in response to which Hall started fighting more energetically. Bevon was also getting very predictable with the same 1-2 or overhand right over and over, and finally, Hall timed him coming in. The punch would oridinarily stun a fighter, but against Lewis, he was knocked out cold.
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He made a mistake which resulted in the knockout. Bevon threw a right over hand without any setup and got punched with full force right on the chin. That shit doesn’t stun you, it knocks you the fuck out. That’s the off button every human has. He needs the experience to not go full force on Hall. I’m confident he learned from that.

PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Calling Stewart a "much worse prospect than Edmen" is silly, too. Edmen dominated Stewart with his wrestling for the first 2 rounds, not the easiest thing to do. Bevon hasn't shown anywhere near that level of grappling.
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Darren has zero fight IQ. I have watched all his fights in detail and the guy is a mental midget combined with horrible IQ. He got beaten by 3 debutants for a reason. Even when he had Edmen half dead on the ground, Edmen took him down shortly after for the 8th time.

Bevon‘s grappling is just good enough to frustrate the fuck out of Darren and nullify his game. Unlike his last performance Bevon is actually a smart fighter who uses all his tools to win by any means. He went the distance a lot even on the regionals. I expect him to fully commit to a solid gameplan. The blueprint of beating Darren is out. He will never be more than a fun fighter and he will most likely get cut soon.
 
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Great odds for the over 1.5‘s on the Ivanov, Suarez & Bevon fights.
 
I’m actually leaning towards cerrone vs ferg going the distance

Don’t know if I’ll bet it though
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
This is misplaced certainty. I'm considering a small play on Bevon on his current odds, but the issue with him is his glass chin. (I'm kicking myself for missing Stewart's KO line when it was over +400)

The fight could very easily play out the same way Lewis-Hall OR Stewart-Byrd did, with one guy dominating the fight only to get suddenly knocked out.

He didn't "just get caught" against Hall, either. Bevon started slowing down near the end of round 2, in response to which Hall started fighting more energetically. Bevon was also getting very predictable with the same 1-2 or overhand right over and over, and finally, Hall timed him coming in. The punch would oridinarily stun a fighter, but against Lewis, he was knocked out cold.

Calling Stewart a "much worse prospect than Edmen" is silly, too. Edmen dominated Stewart with his wrestling for the first 2 rounds, not the easiest thing to do. Bevon hasn't shown anywhere near that level of grappling.
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Bevon did very well against Sonny Yohn (a multiple time D-1 All American) in the wrestling department and regularly trains with Jones and Devin Clark, so I'd say that him having the edge over Stewart there isn't unlikely at all.

I know it's been years since it happened, but Darren Stewart got ragdolled and subbed by Karl Roberson.
 
B49C8927-A667-4611-974A-3451CC8E1480.jpeg

(has a KO loss back in 2000 BC and gets hit by Hall with full power right on the chin without any defensive option)

(still shows that he has a very good overall MMA game as an inexperienced talented fighter)

"hE iS a gLaSs cHiN bUm"

2A5AD664-9F19-4975-9DBA-4EE40EBDC971.jpeg
 
ApplesVild said:
Bevon looks like he could be very good, clearly has a high ceiling but Hall was too much too soon for him and it maybe the case again here. Stewart has a lot of exoeriance, he hasn't had the best run but he has showed he can be very dangerous, big power, a live dog in my opinion.
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Stewart is nowhere near Hall's level. Hall is fringe top 15. Stewart is 30-50. No chance Stewart gets the finish on Jotko that Hall gets
 
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