good points but why don’t you think aljo can get Yan down? Yans takedown defense has not been tested against the competition he faced and aljo is a massive step up in that regard. Yans early patient approach will not serve him well here. Aljo will not slow down.
It's hard to put into words but aljo's strenghts (long distance striking and great grappling) lead me to think the dynamic of the fight, at least early, will see him kicking A LOT While yan can't seem to get much going. Aljo is far from a ko artist but he is explosive and his kicks and movement are fast. Yan, although he isn't one, stands like a brick shithouse. Heavy stance. He is expecting tds so he'll take the center of the octagon and plant his feet, have a discreet first rd, while aljo racks some points and dances around the octagon. Yan isn't sandhagen, he's more physical, it wouldn't be the best idea for aljo to aggressively pursue the td when they are both 100% (he recently said he's so but, you know how these things go). Anyway, if he does it, he's getting stuffed or hurt in the clinch. Yan is the better fighter in the dirty boxing range, very dangerous. I expect this advantage to show especially after the second rd, when aljo isn't as fresh and his strikes and entrances get sloppier, cause they do.
Fight is somewhat hard to read since aljo is better (early) at long range, yan much better at mid range and aljo expectedly better up close. Aljo's got to get through that difficult mid range at some point, cause his cardio ain't gonna hold up 25 mins moving and kicking that much, and i don't think he does it succesfully, considering he'll be fighting on the backfoot.
It's a close fight tho, and you never know for a fact what's gonna happen. I wouldn't be too surprised if aljo stuns yan with a hard kick early, after all I expect him to have success in the first couple rds. I just don't think he keeps that pace up, and then opens opportunities for yan to unload.