UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev, Sat, Oct 22

[Hellowhosthat]

the main thing I remember is he didn't want to be Gillian because Agapova was 2 inches taller. That's in the past now.

I will break down the fight for ya and my concerns @Stat_Collector . I do agree Abu is the more technical fighter in the standup, no doubt. He can switch stances etc and has quicker punches. He fought really smart against Gooden but he doesn't always fight like that, and Gooden gave him the perfect matchup. He is a wild card and never fights, I just have no idea how he will come out here and im not willing to pay juice when he hasn't even covered that price in PFL against worse fighters. Some of them have shinny records, but if you look into them they are not good.

Ghadzi will bring the fight, he loads up a lot but he throws hard and can also switch stances. He seems very strong at MW and now will be at WW where the strength should carry over. I also think fighting someone like Caio made his striking look much worse than it is. The guy is like prime Machida, his speed and elusiveness are one of the main reasons I'm not playing Muaradov who seems to be a popular dog this week. I think the striking will be competitive. Back to Ghadzi, he is reliable to shoot often. I haven't seen much footage from off his back. What I did see he wrestles up ASAP, and hunts for legs. Abu has lapses in concentration and gets submitted. In his PFL victories against bad fighters playing guard, his legs are constantly getting entangled. He gets out but he doesn't get out the way you like to see. Again lots of questions about Ghadzis bottom game. On the other hand, I have seen Abu on bottom against Bojan, and he clearly lost round 2. If it was a 3 round fight, I have no doubt he would have a loss on his record to Bojan. His cardio is bad, it always has been. Especially if he has to wrestle against another wrestler who is strong and won't be easy to TD. He didn't get pushed by Gooden, and was still 1-5 in TDs. Why wouldnt Ghadzi be able to stop the TD's or get his own?

I meantioned this on my podcast last week regarding Henry's juiced line. If Henry doesn't fight to his potential, does he cover his juiced line? Deffs not. He didnt even lose a split, but UD to 40-year-old Assuncao. If Abu dosent fight to his potential, this is a very,very close fight. Why does the fight have to be a 3 round-striking fight, where Abu stuffs every TD and outstrikes him. What is Ghadzi cracks him once with an overhand ( already happened in PFL ). What is Ghadzi leg locks him off the bototm. What is Abu has a much harder fight and gasses AGAIN and starts getting wrested by a guy whos a better wrestler than Bojan. This is MMA, don't be so set in your ways in terms of one and only outcome. Of course Abu can come out there and looked even more improved, he hasn't fought in 2 years. That is whats stopping me, but its a clear, clear dog or pass

I can see Ghazhi by kneebar. I'll have a go at his sub line anyway. Abu has concentration lapses and Gadzhi snaps things on quickly.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Gadzhi is this week's cub swanson, you guys are going off of fights from 4 years ago, abu was still training at team eagle, he's a much better fighter after four years with Javi mendez. But i said my peace, i put my money where my mouth is 250 at 700+ ko prop down, and i see a blow out -300 blowout. remind me of this post later if im right. If im wrong, one week self banned.

 

[mkess101]

I think a lot of people forget that Dillashaw is a very competent wrestler and he obviously has good footwork standing. If he can use his footwork and wrestling to stuff takedowns, I really question how Sterling will look.

He's competent but at his age and mileage is he competent enough to keep Aljo off him? I kinda doubt it. I wouldn't be totally shocked if he looks better than I think he will, but I will be mildly surprised. I think we're seeing an ascending guy (even at 33 years old) vs a guy who's still good but who's best days are behind him.

 

[sonhow]

If I knew Muradov wasn't trying to create a perpetual motion machine using his body as experiment in rd 1 I would take him.
Also the guy got humbled so bad we might see some decline in overall confidence.

 

[magpie878]

krylov itd +140 is an easy bet. he has only been to decision twice in 37 fights. So it is a lot better than his moneyline.

Just FYI, it's three. 3 of his last 5 fights have been decisions. The one decision win was that terrible Johnny Walker fight.

 

[The Disasters]

After taping, mkess101 made good points.

I still have Dillashaw in my head as the kid hanging around wrestling tournaments who was a bad-ass wrestler even before high school. The Dillashaw who was champ was a power-punching striker, not a wrestler. I'm not betting on Aljo, but I'm not betting on Dillashaw either. Might be missing out on the best odds we'll get on him for a while but he hasn't shown enough to be in this spot without his pre-suspension history.

Belal is confirmed though. I am not sold on Brady's cardio and heart compared to Belal and Belal will definitely fight in whichever style is most optimal for him to win. He showed that strength in how he fought Luque/Wonderboy/Maia

I'm also betting on Muradov. His takedown defense isn't terrible, and I'm sure he's been working on it. Borralho gets tired even after being on top with a body triangle the whole round. This price really surprised me.

The one that I'm tempted to bet, but probably won't, is O'Malley. I can't stand that kid but Yan showed a real low fight iq in both Sterling fights. I can see a fight where Yan gets lured into a striking battle, and O'Malley controls the distance with his jab and movement. If Yan fights like an MMA fighter he'll dominate, but against Sterling he had an offensive game plan, and when he was forced to defend some wrestling he was lost. There are only a few people in the top 15 who I give O'Malley any shot against, but Yan might be one of them.

 

[Spath]

The one that I'm tempted to bet, but probably won't, is O'Malley. I can't stand that kid but Yan showed a real low fight iq in both Sterling fights. I can see a fight where Yan gets lured into a striking battle, and O'Malley controls the distance with his jab and movement. If Yan fights like an MMA fighter he'll dominate, but against Sterling he had an offensive game plan, and when he was forced to defend some wrestling he was lost. There are only a few people in the top 15 who I give O'Malley any shot against, but Yan might be one of them.

Did you (re)watch Yan vs Sandhagen? I rate Sandhagen a lot higher than O’Malley and Sandhagen had a lot of problems dealing with Yan. Sandhagen had early success with leg kicks which is something I don’t see Suga Sean doing after getting his legs mangled up twice already. He’s also a fighter that moves a lot, tries to find angles and make his opponent to move into his strikes. Still he had a very hard time finding Yan with his punches. That’s what gives me confidence in Yan. Pretty much any Yan fight gives me confidence in him, though lol



He’s really, really good. I think he’ll land a couple of hard body kicks on Sean, too, as that was something he used and had a lot success against Corey.

 

[The Disasters]

Did you (re)watch Yan vs Sandhagen? I rate Sandhagen a lot higher than O’Malley and Sandhagen had a lot of problems dealing with Yan. Sandhagen had early success with leg kicks which is something I don’t see Suga Sean doing after getting his legs mangled up twice already. He’s also a fighter that moves a lot, tries to find angles and make his opponent to move into his strikes. Still he had a very hard time finding Yan with his punches. That’s what gives me confidence in Yan. Pretty much any Yan fight gives me confidence in him, though lol



He’s really, really good. I think he’ll land a couple of hard body kicks on Sean, too, as that was something he used and had a lot success against Corey.

I'm a big Yan fan too, and I dislike O'Malley. I'm probably reading too much into the Sterling fights but fight-iq has a major impact on my betting. I did rewatch that fight and the thing that gave me pause was that Sandhagen outstruck him in most of the rounds, and Yan didn't complete any takedowns. If this fight is all done on the feet then I think Yan should be much closer to -130. Sandhagen is certainly a better grappler than O'Malley, at least from what we've seen, but that fight was much closer than I think it should've been.

I'm just going to watch with my fingers crossed for Yan to send him to the shadow realm!

 

[BigSteve]

Gadzhi is this week's cub swanson, you guys are going off of fights from 4 years ago, abu was still training at team eagle, he's a much better fighter after four years with Javi mendez. But i said my peace, i put my money where my mouth is 250 at 700+ ko prop down, and i see a blow out -300 blowout. remind me of this post later if im right. If im wrong, one week self banned.

we have to go off fights 4 years ago the guy never fights haha. Anyway good luck, i have no $$$ in it so hope you cash

 

[KTFOvids]

charlie olives via (t)ko @ +600 is insane

 

[mkess101]

charlie olives via (t)ko @ +600 is insane

Agree, and I'm on Islam. If Charles wins its very likely that he catches Islam standing. Great line, way way more value than his ML.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Gadzhi is this week's cub swanson, you guys are going off of fights from 4 years ago, abu was still training at team eagle, he's a much better fighter after four years with Javi mendez. But i said my peace, i put my money where my mouth is 250 at 700+ ko prop down, and i see a blow out -300 blowout. remind me of this post later if im right. If im wrong, one week self banned.

You don't have to self ban dude it's not that big a deal.

 

[KTFOvids]

Agree, and I'm on Islam. If Charles wins its very likely that he catches Islam standing. Great line, way way more value than his ML.

If i had to bet the house, i'd go with islam. I think the most likely scenario is he takes olives down, grinds him until he gasses and gets the stoppage.

but, +600 for a Koing terminator machine who has finished a murders row of strikers @ LW is great value. Not to mention islam hasn't exactly looked super durable when hit.

Another factor, imo, is that olives is far too comfrtable flopping to is back; he's far stronger than he portrays, and if he's smart he'll fight TDs much harder and keep it standing instead of just gving up the TD.

 

[mkess101]

If i had to bet the house, i'd go with islam. I think the most likely scenario is he takes olives down, grinds him until he gasses and gets the stoppage.

but, +600 for a Koing terminator machine who has finished a murders row of strikers @ LW is great value. Not to mention islam hasn't exactly looked super durable when hit.

Another factor, imo, is that olives is far too comfrtable flopping to is back; he's far stronger than he portrays, and if he's smart he'll fight TDs much harder and keep it standing instead of just gving up the TD.

Agree, although I don't see Charles stopping the TD really no matter how hard he fights it. Islam's chain wrestling, trips, and throws are too good.

If I was on Charles I'd rather see him take chances throwing straight knees up the middle etc to try to catch Islam coming in. Don't just flop to guard to accept the TD but don't waste a bunch of energy fighting it either when your odds of stuffing it are so small.

 

[Stat_Collector]

You don't have to self ban dude it's not that big a deal.

jk

 

[fedortips]

i went big on Islam first td @ 1.95


Looking pretty good

 

[Orion]

If anyone is interested, I put together an extensive technical analysis on why I believe Islam will beat Oliveira. It's a long one, but there are timestamps in the description and comments to bounce around

 

[mkess101]

i went big on Islam first td @ 1.95


Looking pretty good

Wait...Islam first TD vs Charles first TD? And you got it at evens? That makes zero sense. Charles is unlikely to be able to take Islam down even once (even with Charles much improved wrestling) and Islam can take Charles down almost whenever he wants (and he'll undoubtedly want to). That line has to be a mistake.

 

[Thesnake101]

Paired Mokaev u1.5/Abubakar KO or points/Zubaira ML up for some prelim Russian action.

 

[JC615]

Wait...Islam first TD vs Charles first TD? And you got it at evens? That makes zero sense. Charles is unlikely to be able to take Islam down even once (even with Charles much improved wrestling) and Islam can take Charles down almost whenever he wants (and he'll undoubtedly want to). That line has to be a mistake.

Agreed. What book? They definitely make mistakes; for instance, I caught Trinaldo by decision at +1000 against Danny Roberts and it was fan fuckin' tastic.