UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Muhammad

[100leglock]

Yall don't think Belal can pull an upset off? Hopefully ring rust is real

 

[TrueAscension]

How many fights have you actually seen that have been scored 30-29?

This made me very happy. Thank you for posting out in the most elementary way how stupid this dude is.

 

[StewDogg11]

This made me very happy. Thank you for posting out in the most elementary way how stupid this dude is.

And the thing is I’m not even adverse to scoring rounds 10-10 so I’ve scored several fights 30-29 but in reality actual judges hardly ever do it so banking on it is absolute insanity.

 

[TrueAscension]

And the thing is I’m not even adverse to scoring rounds 10-10 so I’ve scored several fights 30-29 but in reality actual judges hardly ever do it so banking on it is absolute insanity.

Oh I'd be thrilled to see 10-10 rounds because, frankly, when everyone in the world is wondering who won a round, it seems like a 10-10 is the way to go.

That said, in UFC rounds are very obviously scored 10-9/10-8 so this guy is just a retard.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Yall don't think Belal can pull an upset off? Hopefully ring rust is real

i think he does. Leon Edward's resume isn't that great. (Neither is Belal's). But Belal has been more active and his style (annoying as it is) seems to work pretty good in that Apex cage. I will be playing his ML and decision prop by itself on saturday.

When Leon caught covid, he was sick enough that he lost 12lbs. So hear is hoping he has lingering effects.

 

[MixMartialFarts]

bet 28$ to win 70$ on a parlay of Tucker and Rothwell. Probably gonna be my only bet on this card, going big on Adesanya and Yan fucked me over this weekend.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Anyone on Kape? I think he picks up the pace a little this time.

It's weird to me that his odds were evens vs pantoja and yet evens again vs someone I never heard of.

 

[ballsackarino]

It's weird to me that his odds were evens vs pantoja and yet evens again vs someone I never heard of.

Probably because that Pantoja performance was absolutely terrible. He was frozen.

 

[Sono07]

It's weird to me that his odds were evens vs pantoja and yet evens again vs someone I never heard of.

Looks like Nicolau came off TUF brazil. He beat Smolka before losing via head kick to Dustin Ortiz. I don't know much about him though. Looks like Kape has been spending time with Khabib, Umar and a few of the Dagestan boys, that inspires a little confidence.

Probably because that Pantoja performance was absolutely terrible. He was frozen.

I thought Manel was worried about Pantoja's grappling but he claims to have had trouble with his footing. Makes sense ive seen him fight in shoes before hopefully he has worked on addressing the issue. This is translated from his Kape's instagram.

"I tried to connect more blows than in the first round (I had the most accurate ones) but as everyone saw, I was slipping a lot and that didn't allow me to move forward (to have stability and firmness)

I have already suffered consequences in two fights in the past for slipping, so there was no reason to risk and be the Manel of before aggressive and fearless."

 

[Stat_Collector]

What about all the parlays you lost where you had Yadong and Bautista. This is not a profitable way to bet, it's like saying I got 4/6 numbers on the lotto, I'll win eventually.

Lotto numbers have no value, fighters skills can be measured, I know when its a coin flip, so I do the flip at least three times in every parlay and I treated as a separate thing.
If i just confidently pick one side I have the possibility of burning all my bets with one bad pick and ending my night short. I have lost parlays because I was off by just one and kick myself for not playing the same lineup with one different variable.

This method allowed me to win a draftkings tournament, Fantasy league betters apply this strategy all the time.

 

[Stat_Collector]

None of my picks are mutually exclusive, Medic wrecked Cruz and looked -400 to -500 though. Like I said anything can happen. I doubt Anders submit or finishes though. Anders 1 pro sub is over a fighter with an 0-2 record. His wins are pretty meh too, Perez was 2-6 in the ufc and just got cut, Allen and Gerald are mediocre strikers at best and always at an athletic disadvantage.

Anders could wall and stall but so could Stewart, can Anders do anything else? His IQ is pretty bad and he doesn't transition well at all. He will gives up on TD attempts to switch to a less effective approach constantly. Stewart is no genius either if he gets grounded he may engage in a dirty grappling match like he has before to sort of "get one back".

I don't have huge faith in either guy. I think Stewart wins comfortably in space and I think he will be able to keep the fight there. I want to fade Anders for the same reason I fade Walt Harris and Greg Hardy. Former football players with suspect cardio who need to blitz their opponents to have success like they are making one big play at a time. If Anders can't push forward he won't get to rest, recharge his cardio and he probably gets outstruck/overwhelmed like he did against Rountree or like Harris and Hardy have been.

Edit* Alonzo Menifield is another former footballer with a terrible cardio and a one trick approach.

I think this is a bad way of choosing fights, you are giving 100% non usability on bias alone, you have to take in consideration who they are facing, Menifield beat Paul Craig who is top 15, and has solid tdd. Ko power is very valuable, A guy that can end a fight in one punch can mean the difference of you having big earnings, I like those odds.

I think relying on predictions is never good, we can all predict things to happen, but numbers and records don't lie. Both of these guys have had the same number of unsuccess in the ufc 5-5 and 5-6 , this is a -120 for both guys, Stewart is being inflated here. I'm not sold on Anders but being that its a close fight on paper I'll take the +155
price point, and risk two parlays with him in it. I wont touch stewart at his -190, I'll either remove both of them in most of my parlays or play Anders in a small 1-2 parlays, this will increase chances of profitability for less risk.

 

[Sono07]

I think this is a bad way of choosing fights, you are giving 100% non usability on bias alone, you have to take in consideration who they are facing, Menifield beat Paul Craig who is top 15, and has solid tdd. Ko power is very valuable, A guy that can end a fight in one punch can mean the difference of you having big earnings, I like those odds.

I think relying on predictions is never good, we can all predict things to happen, but numbers and records don't lie. Both of these guys have had the same number of unsuccess in the ufc 5-5 and 5-6 , this is a -120 for both guys, Stewart is being inflated here. I'm not sold on Anders but being that its a close fight on paper I'll take the +155
price point, and risk two parlays with him in it. I wont touch stewart at his -190, I'll either remove both of them in most of my parlays or play Anders in a small 1-2 parlays, this will increase chances of profitability for less risk.

What part of Alonzo beating Craig involved Craig's takedown defense at all? Craig was the grappler yes but Alonzo never wanted to take him down. That's like me saying Belal loses because he is muslim and Edwards likes bangers and mash.

That further proves my point about Alonzo being a 1 trick pony. Having KO power is great, not having the cardio to sustain it is worth considering as well.

One minute we should trust the records and statistics and the next you are hoping for a KO against a man who has never been KOed. Or a sub from someone with questionable grappling control and little submission experience.

"Angela Hill
J.J. Aldrich
Gavin Tucker / Dan Split 50/50
Marcelo Rojo
Misha Cirkunov
Belal Muhammad/Leon Edwards Split 50/50
Don Madge
Rani Yahya
Ben Rothwell
Gloria de Paula
Eryk Anders/Darren (split 50/50)
Jonathan Martinez
Jason Witt"

What part of your model determines 10 of these fights while leaving 3 to chance? Maybe Stewart isn't worth the price both men are questionable. Why the intent on such a broad approach if you believe at least 70% or more will hit?

 

[Stat_Collector]

What part of Alonzo beating Craig involved Craig's takedown defense at all? Craig was the grappler yes but Alonzo never wanted to take him down. That's like me saying Belal loses because he is muslim and Edwards likes bangers and mash.

That further proves my point about Alonzo being a 1 trick pony. Having KO power is great, not having the cardio to sustain it is worth considering as well.

One minute we should trust the records and statistics and the next you are hoping for a KO against a man who has never been KOed. Or a sub from someone with questionable grappling control and little submission experience.

"Angela Hill
J.J. Aldrich
Gavin Tucker / Dan Split 50/50
Marcelo Rojo
Misha Cirkunov
Belal Muhammad/Leon Edwards Split 50/50
Don Madge
Rani Yahya
Ben Rothwell
Gloria de Paula
Eryk Anders/Darren (split 50/50)
Jonathan Martinez
Jason Witt"

What part of your model determines 10 of these fights while leaving 3 to chance? Maybe Stewart isn't worth the price both men are questionable. Why the intent on such a broad approach if you believe at least 70% or more will hit?

I meant Menifield has good tdd not Craig. My mistake on that.

Ultimately I dont know , but all the other fighters past my criteria for likely wins. I'm still on the fence for jj Aldrich and see value in Casey for her win on Angela Hill.

So i'll explain down the list why certain fighters get the pass and others don't. Opp means opposition , as i'll use that word often.

Angela Hill- Safe bet but she is very inflated, I might put her in some parlays but will switch her for a more profitable favorite.Yoder has weaker opp ratings and weak striking and TD, and Angela is coming off two close fights vs top 15 opp so she passes my criteria.

J.J. Aldrich- Ok so I'm going to have Casey in two Parlays, I see value in her with the win on Angela as stated above. She is a bjj black belt so she deserves a nod.

Gavin Tucker / Dan Split 50/50 Dan Ige is split for me because he is a good favorite with good opp wins and top 15 status, but Gavin is a decent dog with solid wrestling and bjj black and solid thai boxing.

Marcelo Rojo- Jourdain could win this but he is extremely inflated, Marcelo at 200+ for his experience and explosive striking and high sub wins is a steal in my book.

Misha Cirkunov overall high opp wins on Jimmy Crute , high level bjj black and adcc gold medal, this one is a no brainer.

Belal Muhammad/Leon Edwards Split 50/50 Both guys are 18-3 and Leon has shown trouble with wrestlers and has a long lay off. Belal at 200+ is a good bet for his well rounded game. Leon at -270 will have one parlay, but i will either remove both guys or have belal in a lot of parlay picks.

Don Madge-removed, but he was my favorite dog in this card for his prior thai boxing background and good clinch wrestling which at 230+ was a steal, I was not gonna touch Hasrat at all, maybe remove Don in 1 or 2 parlays.

Rani Yahya so much experience in grappling and Ray has been subbed 3 times and has low opp wins besides a win on Jimmy Flick but not enough there to get the nod for a good dog.

Ben Rothwell-opp wins + exp and power. a good safe bet and -120 is a good price point.
Gloria de Paula- little inexperience, will avoid her in some of my parlays but will include her in a lot, due to size speed and gym .

Eryk Anders/Darren (split 50/50)-pretty much laid out why.
Jonathan Martinez- Im still on the fence on this one, Will include Jon on some but switch him for Grant due to the +240, although i need to still think that through.

Jason Witt" under price , this fight should be split, Witt has twice the amount of exp and solid grappling Mattew has no prior wrestling background and has a prior loss to William knight a grappler.

Ultimately my selection is based on price points, this comes from my draftkings experience where you had to select fighters based on a 50k salary limit and determine how to get the most success for their price point.

 

[StewDogg11]

These threads have become useless with the ramblings of the parlay moron polluting them.

 

[TrueAscension]

Meth is a hell of a drug

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Edwards win this with ease via better cardio, more diverse and better striking, more dominant clinch control, and better grappling if it does hit the ground.

 

[benebox]

If we were having a discussion on who was going to win , Id go with Leon, but because there is money involved, I'm going to gamble on Belal, and hope Leon is ring rusted .

Anything can happen in this sport, so many people like to pretend like they have a crystal ball(not you in particular) but so many think fights will go out how they imagine they would. Belal could smash Leons head open with an elbow and receive a cut stoppage, he could slam him down and Leon could snap is arm, or Belal could land an overhand that puts Leon to sleep.

Same with Anders, I know Stewart is the favorite , But i'm trying to make bigger money for smaller bets, so I'm playing a lottery ticket, where I have a guy with 8 kos from his 13 wins, and banking on a flash ko. These things happen all the time. Mma is a volatile sport. Anyone who is athletic and packs a decent punch or kick can knock each other out. I see this whole event as three to four coin flips for the chance of me either losing 19$ or gaining 99k on a 11-12 parlay. I know it seems unlikely, but I have gotten 9/11 before . its not crazy to think Belal could win this.

My advice would be bet the underdog if you think there is value but consider the decision props instead of hoping for flash KOs or freak accident if you are looking for those wide odds. 7 of Belal last 8 UFC wins are by decision and Leon has never lost ITD (other than by disqualification) and you are getting it at +400 odds.

 

[benebox]

Edwards win this with ease via better cardio, more diverse and better striking, more dominant clinch control, and better grappling if it does hit the ground.

Leon decision at even money is probably the play I'll go for.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Leon decision at even money is probably the play I'll go for.

I think that's the most likely outcome, but there's a decent chance he finishes him.

I'll be playing Leon rd4/5 for sure.

 

[burge13]

Leon must know he needs a finish to get people excited. Covington will get a shot before him if he isn't more appealing to fans on return