UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Zombie

[mmagod2020]

Roberts and Edwards are British strikers with very little ground game or wrestling and Silva was exhausted in rounds 2/3 of both of those, but I agree that he could win the first 2 via lay and pray. Krause does have junk takedown defense for a former high school wrestler and bjj black belt, but I'm having trouble seeing Silva dominate 2 and 3 any more than Moraes or Alves did. If you got Silva at +150 or above, then I agree that the odds were worth a play. I think it's a little too risky for me.

You are not wrong, but Silva just always finds a way to win... in the end of the day it's a classic dog or pass for me.

 

[Martialbeef]

Hope the fools betting anything Zombie Ortega going the distance related have a lot on it so they can’t bet again next week.

 

[mmagod2020]

Lay and pray really isn’t Silva’s style, at all. He’s very aggressive. To me the odds are a bit weird in this fight, should be a touch closer to even I feel. I think it’s a good match up and I’ll put a small bet on Silva here.

Also, hi sherbettors. I have just lurked in the shadows here and there, mainly posted on UFC discussion. I thought I’d drop by here more often as I like to make bets and always look for good odds/match ups to drop some money on. I sometimes do fight(er) breakdowns and I could post some here, too.

Not the best event for betting this weekend, but I feel like Andrade is a solid bet. The way she fought Rose gives me a lot of confidence here, because Rose is a lot better fighter than Chookagian. Andrade’s footwork has gotten better and she didn’t just plod forward with no answer to Rose’s movement.

I’m also with KZ. Let’s see if he can put Ortega away!

I can see Silva dominating the first round and then running out of gas, resulting in a messy second and third round. It's more or less a 50/50 fight I would say, so Silva is the value play for me as the underdog. I'm on Andrade and KZ as well.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Moreso cards that are awful for viewing, this one should be fun but just horrible for betting. I'm eyeing quite a few LB spots though.

Willis around +300 in Belly worth a look. On the Cyborg/Blenncowe o1.5 too at -142

I was thinking of bukauskas and krause after the first round as some possible LB options if their opponents look tired. What LB fights did you have in mind to look out for?

 

[Wiktoruspro]

My thoughts exactly. If Bukauskas is able to survive the first round, things could get interesting in a hurry. btw I'm pumped to see what your boy Gamrot will bring to the table... I'm pretty high on the guy. He is solid everywhere and on top of that defensively responsible. The total package so to speak.

I watched every fight of Gamrot and his grappling is legit but he has no ko power and only ok stand up.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I'm the GOAT! Whether you like it or not, there is a new sheriff in town.

BUKAUSKAS and DA SILVA are my underdogs of the week.

Best bets: ANDRADE and KZ

Thank me later.

One thing Im afraid bukauskas is that he was geting taken down last year by Marcin Wojcik. Any info about his wrestling?

 

[benebox]

Some plays I'm considering....

Zombie ITD +100
I know Ortega has an iron chin but he gets hit way too much for my liking and has crappy TDs so am fully expecting a domination by TKZ.

Andrade decision +210
Getting these sort of odds for the favourite winning a decision in wmma isnt bad especially when she is moving up against a game opponent.

Crute Rd 1 +200
Crute always comes strong Rd 1 and Bakauska hasnt really impressed me all that much, from what I recall he gets hit a lot from basic 1, 2s and wild overhands. Crute will come in spamming TDs, then if he mixes in a couple of overhands I could see this ending in the 1st by either Sub or KO.

 

[Sadistics]

I was thinking of bukauskas and krause after the first round as some possible LB options if their opponents look tired. What LB fights did you have in mind to look out for?

Bukauskas, Krause, Grishin, possibly Andrade if she has her usual slow start and odds get wide, Said too if Striegl has a strong first round.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Bukauskas has 1 finish outside of round 1/2 and it was round 4 so that’s good news. His round 3 is +2500. Just played that and round 2. Might do round 1 @+900 but I’m confident Crute can survive 1 round.

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

I'm so tempted to blind tail Mularkey because of @Sadistics and @LiberationBets.

Lay and pray really isn’t Silva’s style, at all. He’s very aggressive. To me the odds are a bit weird in this fight, should be a touch closer to even I feel. I think it’s a good match up and I’ll put a small bet on Silva here.

Also, hi sherbettors. I have just lurked in the shadows here and there, mainly posted on UFC discussion. I thought I’d drop by here more often as I like to make bets and always look for good odds/match ups to drop some money on. I sometimes do fight(er) breakdowns and I could post some here, too.

Not the best event for betting this weekend, but I feel like Andrade is a solid bet. The way she fought Rose gives me a lot of confidence here, because Rose is a lot better fighter than Chookagian. Andrade’s footwork has gotten better and she didn’t just plod forward with no answer to Rose’s movement.

I’m also with KZ. Let’s see if he can put Ortega away!

I don't know if Silva can get a sub against Krause, but maybe I'm really off. The odds opened VERY off and all the value was on Silva. Should be a fun fight.

Andrade has definitely improved her footwork and head movement, but didn't she still have problems closing distance in 1 and 2? She worked the body and legs hard in 2 and Namajunas slowed like she does, but Andrade couldn't get the takedown until the 3rd. I don't see that being as big of a problem against a striker like Chookagian and Andrade's chin should be better at 125 so bullying her way in should be much easier. I think the odds are pretty accurate and the first round will tell us a lot.

Moreso cards that are awful for viewing, this one should be fun but just horrible for betting. I'm eyeing quite a few LB spots though.

Willis around +300 in Belly worth a look. On the Cyborg/Blenncowe o1.5 too at -142

Won that Over 1.5 by 6 seconds, good call.

 

[Kazda1]

I bet Andrade a few days ago and was planning on taking a pass on the rest of this card. Came to Vegas yesterday for a job interview this morning that got rescheduled until Monday morning. Now I'm thinking about getting out the tape and betting more just because I've got nothing better to do.

I've been reading the thread and it seems like KZ is the easy play. May I ask a question? You ever sometimes not tape a fight and say to yourself for some strange contrarian reason, "Ooooh that's a good underdog play?" Like you ever say that to yourself without having studied the fight and being distant with no money on the line? Then sure enough that upset happens and you're pissed because you didn't bet it just because?

Like for no reason whatsoever, without having taped anything Ortega related, I think he's going to win. It just feels really weird. I hardly remember his other fights outside of two - the Holloway loss and the Moicano win. It's like Ortega's luck of losing until he wins ran out against Holloway but for some reason I think that's going to be the case here again. He'll be losing again until out of nowhere he wins or he just rolls over KZ.

I want to clarify again, I could be completely wrong and I hope for the sake everyone who bet KZ that I'm wrong and he wins. I love me some zombie too, but I have a weird gut feeling about this one.

 

[rille31]

anyone else having trouble accessing betonline?

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[t6p]

anyone else having trouble accessing betonline?

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Same here.

 

[rille31]

Same here.

What country are you located in?

 

[Pfooter24]

I don't see Mateusz Gamrot losing. He is a real safe parlay piece in my eyes.

Nice!

 

[Pfooter24]

I like Claudio & chookigan in 2 competitive fights

 

[BigSteve]

Another interview, skip to the end for retirement talk

 

[SolarSeiko]

I watched every fight of Gamrot and his grappling is legit but he has no ko power and only ok stand up.

I'm not even gonna bother betting or parlaying gamrot but the guy should cruise to a DEC. Fighting a bunch of roided polish dudes should give him the edge.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

I bet Andrade a few days ago and was planning on taking a pass on the rest of this card. Came to Vegas yesterday for a job interview this morning that got rescheduled until Monday morning. Now I'm thinking about getting out the tape and betting more just because I've got nothing better to do.

I've been reading the thread and it seems like KZ is the easy play. May I ask a question? You ever sometimes not tape a fight and say to yourself for some strange contrarian reason, "Ooooh that's a good underdog play?" Like you ever say that to yourself without having studied the fight and being distant with no money on the line? Then sure enough that upset happens and you're pissed because you didn't bet it just because?

Like for no reason whatsoever, without having taped anything Ortega related, I think he's going to win. It just feels really weird. I hardly remember his other fights outside of two - the Holloway loss and the Moicano win. It's like Ortega's luck of losing until he wins ran out against Holloway but for some reason I think that's going to be the case here again. He'll be losing again until out of nowhere he wins or he just rolls over KZ.

I want to clarify again, I could be completely wrong and I hope for the sake everyone who bet KZ that I'm wrong and he wins. I love me some zombie too, but I have a weird gut feeling about this one.

Ortega subs guys who are inexperienced or don’t have the grappling ability of TKZ. It’s in the realm of possibility, but Brian’s shit is too tricky for TKZ to fall into IMO. You need a Jacare or demian Maia type honestly, a systematic breakdown to get the choke while Ortega just jumps on something.

 

[mmagod2020]

I watched every fight of Gamrot and his grappling is legit but he has no ko power and only ok stand up.

True, but I trust him to stay technical and safe on the feet and then get a couple of takedowns. Should be enough against a powerful, but wild Kutateladze.