some of my reads I promised I would be doing more regularly, but have failed so far.
Impa/Sasha: I remember Sasha being much worse before I re-taped it. I like his striking, has a little O'Malley about it. Wide stance, low hands, feints, nice pull counters, and footwork. The defense is nowhere near as good and when you pressure him into a brawl he is super hittable. He is tough but can be Koed. I would have played him against Impa at these odds if not for that big weakness. Pittolo was doing good picking Impa apart but the power and pressure eventually took over. This is a pass especially with the uncertanty of Impas weight cut.
Jung/Knight : I got Jung as an even-money dog before tape. Everyone seemed to be on Knight, didn't know what I was missing. Taped it, and I think I might keep the action, worst case reduce to 1u. Massive reach and height advantage on Jung. Knight is very hittable and green with his standup. Leaves his chin out for the taking. Jung should jab him up, maybe KO him. Was very disappointed in Camur clinching Knight like an idiot for 3 rounds. The clinch is Knights only way to win, although Jung works to get up ASAP. Knight has good volume with the kicks and decent gass, but the way he reacts to getting hit might sway the judges even though Jung can be a bit low volume.
Saldana/Griffin: Didn't go deep into this one. Watched a bunch of Saldanas fights, I like how composed he is. This could look a bit like the Zalal fight where he picked Griffin apart and Griffin was selling out for the clinch. I think this fight is a bit volatile and I dont like how Saldana needs space to work, mixed with Griffin being a wild man. Pass.
Shore/Azure: Interesting fight. Technical Welsh grappling V grinding USA Wrestling. I think Azure has a big athletism and strength advanatge. I have noticed Shore get outmuscled on the regionals in a few of his fights, and even against the 2 low-level opponents in the UFC. He kind of needs good timing or needs to be up against the cage to complete a takedown. He makes up for the lack of strength with the way he chains his wrestling and always looks for the back in scrambles. He tends to get more takedowns late as he has good cardio, which works against Azure who is always going at full speed and slows down quite a bit. He gave up his back to Cole and Katona in the third which is no bueno here. The things I noticed from tape made me want to pass, but I did get Shore at 1.80 which I thought wasn't bad in what could be a close 29-28. I have that feeling that Shore could roll here, due to him being more cerebral and making the right moves when it matters. Could potentially let the 1u ride.
Castro/Danho: Got 4u on Castro. Danho is shit, he was shit 4 years ago against the bottom-of-the-barrel UFC opposition and he should have 2 UFC losses. He is also constantly looking to quit. Only reason its not a max bet is due to it being low level HW, and Danho being the bigger man. After tape, though I think Castros chin will hold up, and in turn, his speed and leg kicks will kill him.
Makdessi/Ignacio: I have seen some people on here say this could be a similar fight to Pinedo, who is also a tall Latin fighter and got picked apart by the bull for 3 rounds. Only problem is Pinedo is absolute trash and doesn't have 30+ Kickboxing wins like Ignacio. Even then, the two times Pindo actually let his hands and kicks go ( it was legit only 2 times in the whole fight ) it looked like he stunned Makdessi. I will be honest I did feel like passing after seeing Ignacios DEC loss and split DEC win on the regionals that were both standup fights. But he is young and improving, and this is more of a fade on Makdessi who has next to no output and will be at a 7.5inch disadvantage. Have 2u on Ignacio will most likely add one more.
Nina/Dern: Skipped to this fight on the main card due to all the chatter its creating, got me excited. I like what I see from Nina, yes she does give up about a takedown per fight, but its from fighters like Markos, Ghadela, Suarez. She also legit seemed to have improved every single fight, actually winning the 3rd round against Suarez who GNPs and chokes girls out. Nina was never in any danger, just gets mat returned over and over and keeps getting back up without giving up any dangerous positions or eating brutal GNP. I like her footwork and calf kick too, which is a proper calf kick, nice and low. One thing I dont like is her lack of power. She dosent really discourage girls from pressuring her and basically always needs to point fight to a decision. Dern is very aggressive, to the point she is a bit too wild sometimes. But she cracks hard and the pressure might make the round close even if she doesn't get the takedown. Regardless still can't pass on Nina with all her advantages, standup, great TDD and getups, footwork and the calf kick. Just need to decide on my stake. Got 3u atm but don't think I will go that big with Derns improvements snd Ninas layoff.
