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UFC FOX 22 pbp/discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 17, 2016.

  1. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    A right hand won him the fight though o_O
     
  2. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    That's one way to look at it. He did clip him yes. But Gall completed each takedown he tried, I saw literally NOTHING from Sage that showed he had even a prayer of stopping another one. Gall was somewhat surprisingly willing to strike in rd 2, I guess he trusts his chin (which like I said last night held up 100% as he ate a couple shots while smiling). And while Sage did regain guard once (yay!) and managed to get back to his feet once, the grappling was as one sided as we'd expected.

    I'm pretty confident that Gall wins that fight without the punch that clipped Sage, but I will definitely grant that the stoppage might not have come. It may have ended up with more TD's and 30-27's or whatever.
     
  3. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    There is a reason Gall didn't try one In the second, and it was Sages footwork. He was cutting angles left and right (albeit with his chin in the air) and keeping hands at his hips for underhooks.

    The grappling was not as one sided as you expected lol you thought Gall would dust Sage and Sage reversed position in round 1

    He won but cmon. The fight ended with something no one could've predicted with Galls Track record
     
  4. BatBoyJG Brown Belt

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    Gall dominated him on the ground jb. Yes no one predicted Sage to get dropped by a punch because that wasn't super likely, but it's a fight. Gall is big, and Sage has no head movement & bad defense doesn't sound far fetched for him to get dropped.

    Most predicted that once Gall locked a sub on him he'd look around & quit which is what happened.
     
  5. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Gall won on the ground, but it's not like he blew him out lol he got reversed

    Oh cmon with this quitting stuff the kid was in a rear naked choke From a guy who wins every fight by rnc
     
  6. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I saw rd 2 differently. Seemed to me like he knew more grappling would take energy, and he was content to strike the first half of the round. Clipping Sage obviously made the rest moot. And that's the beauty of MMA, skills blend into each other. If Sage was so concerned with the TD that he felt the need to have his hands at his so low, I guess Gall's threat of grappling evened out the striking huh? Same thing happened with Mir/Kongo. At that point everyone thought the striking to be a complete mismatch but Kongo was so paranoid about getting taken down and being on the mat with Mir, he dropped his hand by his sides when Mir feinted a TD and then Mir blasted him with on overhand.

    Sage sort of reversed Gall and got back to his feet, but when Gall was laying there begging Sage to dive into his guard I'm pretty sure we all know why Sage didn't do it. Sage was in survival mode on the mat when he was on the bottom, and no interest in Gall's guard when he had top position for a few seconds.

    LOL awesome we are still talking about this the day after too.
     
  7. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    That conclusion is as much of an assumption as Gall having skills besides jits before the fight though. Literally nothing suggests it as truth. Do you know how hard it is to shoot a takedown on a guy shuffling side to side at distance? Thats probably why Gall was relying on kicks to time his entries. I'm just going off of what my eyes saw.

    Sage's hands are always low, hes karate guy. It should help him with underhooks, til he throws dumb kicks like he still did in this fight.

    Weren't you saying Gall would smoke Sage on the ground? To the point Gall decision wasn't possible? Thats why I engaged in this again. You said "you and Oblivian tried telling everyone" yet a right hand ended the fight, and Sage reversed position from bottom. At no point did you ever give Sage a chance to do so.
     
  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Sage moved side to side at distance WHEN Gall wasn't advancing. Did you notice Sage was moving side to side in rd 1 too UNTIL Gall came at him hard looking for the TD. Then what happened? Sage moved DIRECTLY backward and...got taken down. Also, notice Sage vs Barb and Marin. His hands are noticeably higher than vs Gall in rd 2. In fact, if you rewatch the fight last night, Sage's hands are lower in rd 2 than in rd 1. Seemingly because he was taken down so easily and was trying to do something to counter that.

    I guess if you want me to say Sage did better on the mat than I thought I'll agree. He was in survival mode for sure, but he did survive the initial ground exchange. He ate some gnp but did get back to his feet after Gall tried to advance to mount. So no, he didn't get "smoked" in rd 1, I agree there. Gall won rd 1 easily with grappling, but Sage did survive.

    Edit: And I never said Gall dec was impossible. Unlikely sure, but not impossible. I bet Gall ML in addition to my other bets. If I thought him winning a dec was impossible, I wouldn't have touched his ML. Would have made no sense LOL.
     
  9. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Yeah Gall came at him with the td in the first after he threw a kick, like I said lol. The kid clearly has no IQ, that conclusion is sealed after this one.I was happy he was at least staying way on the outside in round 2.

    All the hand shit aside, i'm just baffled you could go to the extent of being one of those "I told you so" guys on this one when its not like your read was spot on lol. Like you just admitted, Sage clearly did better on the mat than you expected when he pulled off a reversal from a real bad spot and the fight wasn't ended with some master class of Jits. It was ended with a right hand that was literally impossible to rationally predict when we had noooo idea what Gall's striking would look like.
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Nah it's not "I told you so". I already said I didn't expect Gall to drop him with a punch. But Gall DID dominate the grappling, even in rd 1. He didn't stop Sage, I realize that. But it's not like the round was up for debate right? And Gall's TD wasn't off a missed kick from Sage. Sage threw the kick but had already reset I'm pretty sure. (Would need to check that to be totally sure to be fair).

    My read wasn't "spot on", I agree. That said I did think Gall would have success with TD's--he did. I did think he'd dominate the grappling--he did (he did get impatient and try to get mount too quickly and Sage did a nice job using it to spin him and stand up--no question--but again Gall EASILY won rd 1 purely with grappling, you obviously saw that too right?) And the first chance Gall had to get a dominant position he took it and ended the fight.

    I've talked about in other fights the different ways being an elite bjj guy vs someone who's not is a big advantage. Namely Conor vs Nate. Meaning if Sage drops Gall with a strike, he's scared shitless to follow to the mat to try to end it due to the grappling disparity. And while it was reasonable for sure to think that Gall had less of a chance of catching Sage with a strike and dropping him, the thing is that IF he did we'd see exactly what we saw. Zero hesitation to dive in and finish via sub like Cerrone has done multiple times.

    MMA is tricky because everything blends into everything else. I'll stand by the fact that giant grappling disparities bleed into everything and affect multiple areas of a fight. It messes with guys heads. I don't think Colby is necessarily a better striker (or not as much as we saw last night anyway) than Barb, but he lit him up yesterday and I think some of it was because after the first few TD's, Barb was just paranoid about getting dumped on his head again and froze up.

    Shit dude, I don't know it all or even close. And having done it for awhile maybe I'm too much grappling tourney nerd LOL. I just see a gap that big in that dept and the things Sage was showing previously and that was enough for me. Sage's poor fight IQ was also a factor in my bets too, no doubt.
     
  11. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Oh BatBoy, WTF do you know...like we are supposed to take advice from a guy who still only a purple belt LOL Good to see you're still alive brother!

    As for Jouban, I kinda agree. I think on a good day he can beat top 10-15 opponents but I have a lot of trouble seeing him consistently get his hand right against the upper echelon of the division, especially anything under top 12 . I wouldn't mind saying to him fight someone like Leon Edwards to get a really good taste of where he is. Edwards also happens to be one of three flight went straight and doesn't have an opponent lined up. Another fighter that is ranked for lower than him, but is also on a three fight win streak oh his own and who currently has the wind at their back is Vicente Luque. I think a Luque vs. Jouban tilt would be a banger of a scrap and would give the winner of the fight a 4-fight win streak and well positioned to make some noise.
     
  12. t6p Brown Belt

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    Good call there, I hadn't thought of that fight but I love the Luque vs Jouban matchup.
     
  13. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    We both prob need to be checked, but i'm fairly certain Sage threw a low line sidekick and Gall moved right in on him for it. You didn't go full "I told you so" route, my bad on that one. But How can you even point out you and Oblivian talking about Sage's willingness to grapple when that was the rare thing he fixed here? lol

    I'm just saying, you thought Gall based on jits credentials would dominate the grappling to the extent it was over when it hit the mat. It wasn't, Sage reversed. Never in a million years would you have given any credence to that possibility. This wasn't a Demian Maia performance. The kid scored a td, had a good position, and lost it to Sage Northcutt. And he scored one takedown with no sign whatsoever he could score another in the 2nd. I take the L, but the result is as much of an anomaly as the prefight hypotheticals. You were saying yourself on the feet Sage should light him up. No one could have seen a right hand being the end of Sage's night, cause the only right hand we've seen Gall throw was at a journalist. I don't even regret betting Sage like I do PVZ (I DEFINITELY regret ending up almost 2u deep though, thats for fucking sure). The entirety of round 2 up to the right hand he did a good job at keeping the fight where he wanted. Hes just the biggest wash out ever, and Gall has come out of thin air and now proven to be a legit prospect
     
  14. Ukram Silver Belt

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    thought the same thing but like another regular suggested the take down sealed it in the judges eyes.

    Had a sneaky feeling russian rockhold would look better then his ufc debut ko loss, but no way to prove it.
     
  15. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Fair points. I still say Sage backed straight the fuck up when Gall advanced and would have done it again (Gall didn't try another one, but I can't believe he wouldn't have at some point), but pretty irrelevant now. Sage did marginally better on the ground than I thought, I cede that for sure. Gall was too aggressive trying to mount there, he got a little antsy to end it I'd imagine.

    I stand by giant grappling disparity is more meaningful than almost anything else in MMA (when coupled with sub par TD defense). I know the punch was the beginning of the end, but I'm not sure that lands if Sage isn't so concerned with being on the mat again.

    The thing is, at Sage's age he CAN still be something other than a washout. The kid needs to focus on grappling full time for like a year. Go up to NJ and train with Gall for crying out loud. Gall said he likes Sage, I'm sure he'd be good with it. Or go somewhere else where he can REALLY focus on becoming legit on the ground and work on his TDD.
     
  16. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Sage really does need to get away from his daddy, its his only hope.

    Anyways, before this consumes our lives again, what are the odds Sage vs CM Punk is next? Who else is there for either of them?
     
  17. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Sage would just wreck Punk LOL, and he'll be like -600.

    Punk literally showed zip vs Gall. It was takedown, gnp, give the back, goodnight. There wasn't one second where Gall wasn't in control. At least Sage has showed us some real positives. He's still a fighter, and Punk isn't.

    Sage can make 155 right? There has to be some fringe low level guy there he can get back on track with right? While he hopefully learns some actual grappling skills. For Punk...IDK. I mean hell maybe they set this fight up just because Punk has a contract and if he really wants to I guess they have to give him another fight. He can't beat anyone on the roster though. I'll bet on whoever he's fighting most likely unless it's like -1200 or something silly.
     
  18. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I dare someone to name a LW on the roster Sage can beat lol. Before last night I thought Holtzmann was the only one, but Holtzmann would wreck Sage
     
  19. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    LOL beats me. Gouti? O'Reilly?

    Man IDK. Sage should just take a year off and work on nothing but grappling.
     
  20. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    According to bloodyelbow's Victor Rodriguez in his winners and losers article, Hector Sandoval is a loser on the night for "not being willing to engage" (fucking lol. Did he miss the first 2 rounds?), and Luis Da Silva is neutral cause, even though he got wrecked and looked like garbage, he "got subbed by a submission guy so no surprise there"

    I hope this bum lurks here, cause the consistent level of shit in those articles is astonishing. Do none of his colleagues have a discussion with him about these consistently horrific opinions? lol
     

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