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UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.

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  1. Captain Crunch28 Green Belt

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    I'm down 5u I'm gonna gamble 5u on the all American to get back to even.
     
  2. kenfloshogun Blue Belt

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    Darren Elkins - Dennis Bermudez
    +185 -238
     
  3. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Man it's so hard to count out Elkins anymore. I remember people giving him a good shot against Bektic and I thought they were crazy. He gets the fucking SHIT kicked out of him then somehow not only survives but come back to win! That's the coal miner, all I know is hard work and pain type mentality that makes Elkins what he is. Definitely not laying the juice on Dennis, Elkins seems like the play at that price.
     
  4. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Weidman SUB is +861... isn't he supposed to be really good on the ground? Can anyone comment on KG's grappling
     
  5. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Kelvin has really good back taking skills and a nice rnc to go with it. He got a couple guys on tuf with rnc's and all of his real (by real I mean not that sub by punch bs) pro sub wins have been by rnc. Other than that I haven't seen anything from him to suggest he'll be throwing up a really good guard or something if the Chris takes him down. He also hasn't had a sub win since Ellenberger like 2.5 years ago.

    Weidman hasn't had a sub win since late '11 when he d'arced Filthy Tom unconscious. He seems to have decent front headlocks but I'm not sure he'll get Kelvin with them. Might be worth a flier though at that price though, but then again I love to bet the big +money props so I'm a bit biased.
     
  6. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    That's a super line. As I said, I have a really hard time seeing Weidman get a decision so it's either sub or GNP to win.
     
  7. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Magny was able to out grapple Gastelum for two rounds and even had his back in the second round I believe. I feel like Weidman is happier just going w punches but I can see him grabbing an RNC if he were in a similar situation. Magny was able to land 6 takedowns against Gastelum! Idk, I guess the price is forcing my hand in making a play on Weidman SUB
     
  8. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    that's a good point, also I wonder how much Chris has been working on his grappling since he's lost three times in a row all by ko (I know the Gegard one doesn't count as much but still). It wouldn't surprise me if he's really been trying to get back to the wrassling and sub stuff, his skills are there, and Kelvin's become such a good striker. He SHOULD try to be getting td's and passing to set up chokes and stuff but who knows where Chris's head is at, atm.
     
  9. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Very true, good point. I do want to point out how good Magny's become on the ground since he's been in the ufc, as well, though. Really underrated grappler. Remember when Seth Bacynsky (sp?) out grappled him? That would never happen nowadays. one of the biggest 180's I've seen in a fighter in a fairly short time span. Everything from his wrestling to his guard has gotten really good.
     
  10. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    Why doesn't the Mousasi knockout count as much? I know it was a questionable call but it was pretty inevitable that weidman was going down sooner than later. He was gassed and was getting destroyed with mousasi stand up. Facts are facts and weidman has gotten finished in his last 3 fights and has gassed in each of them.
     
  11. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    I said it doesn't count as much b/c it doesn't, is all. Romero flying kneed him and Luke beat the piss out of him for like an hr straight before Herb's lazy ass stopped it. The last one I had money on Gegard finishing him but we can't really compare that loss to the other two. The other two were way more brutal. Moose fight was weird, Chris was playing the game and got caught and tried to get a dq or nc b/c he was losing. Not the same as the last two.
     
  12. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    i'm not doing anything on weidman-gastelum until i see weidman's physical shape (i'm aware it get him the win vs mousasi, but it's relevant for the fight)
     
  13. t6p Brown Belt

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    I was actually looking at that line too. Magny had him mounted multiple times those first two rounds and Kelvin gave up his back in most of those instances IIRC. He even had him flattened out briefly. Kelvin was able to escape, but I'm not sure how easy that's going to be for him against Chris. He's so much bigger and stronger.
     
  14. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    Is it possible that the Magny fight was just an off night? He's never showed that flaw in any other fights really.

    Chris is just taking a lot of damage. It catches up. The Moose fight probably was the most damage of them all because it wasn't quick.

    If this was 3 I'd probably take the Chris here. But I really think he's gonna be in bad shape half way through
     
  15. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Didn't someone here say they had inside info on people close to him wanting to him call it a career after the Romero loss?

    The big factor for me is that Chris has taken so much damage in all his losses, that third? round vs Luke when he was saved by the bell was brutal, that knee and the beating vs Romero. I just don't know how anyone can trust Chris body after the damage and the neck surgery (it was the neck right?).

    I usually read in too much too career trajectories but Weidman and Gastelum are really in as opposite directions as they come.
     
  16. MFCharon White Belt

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    Against Gastelum the boxing went well, but don't forget Weidman is another 3" bigger as does he have 4" more reach compared to Kennedy. So does his boxing really get going? I have my doubts. Also because Gastelum hasn't proved himself against top tier fighters.
     
  17. vkram Brown Belt

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    If Weidman is gassed I don't think the reach will matter that much, plus Gastelum is used to fighting taller/bigger guys even at WW.
     
  18. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Betsafe got odds on Cummins/Vilante, -130/+105
     
  19. MFCharon White Belt

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    Good point @vkram

    Maybe I shouldn't touch this match. Odds are maybe set right with no value on both sides.
     
  20. vkram Brown Belt

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    I liked Gastelum as the underdog but now I think the odds are more or less on point. I think that its a good fight to livebet, especially if you are on Gastelum as Weidman very often wins the first round.
     
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