UFC on ABC 5: Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria, Jacksonville, Florida, June 24

For me I'm liking Zhalgas here. I think Van has a more traditional striking style but I noticed he throws naked leg kicks and has tendencys to drop his hands and be there to be hit while throwing which I think Zhalgas can exploit never mind his grappling.

If Zhalgas wasn't robbed in his last couple of fights this line would probably be -400 to -500 wouldn't it? Zhalges cutting weight last week worries me but it's balanced out a bit with Van being on short notice I guess... I have Zhalgas ITD sprinkled in some side bets and his ML in a couple of parlays.
When has zhalgas ever looked better than -200 let alone 4-500?
 
I am surprised nobody likes Jenkins here. He is a pretty big dog but, is a solid striker. Emmers' also looks like he would be very susceptible to calve kicks.
 
When has zhalgas ever looked better than -200 let alone 4-500?

One of his fights in the UFC he got a first round sub... yeah the guy he beat wasn't great but that would justify that price tag.

He shouldn't be that big of a favorite over anyone he's fought at the UFC level but against a guy coming in on short notice from the reginals who hasn't beaten anyone notable...
 
Emmett was hurt in the body multiple times against yair and got dropped by a liver kick and topuria has multiple KOs where he goes to the body then back upstairs (jackson and herbert). Topuria is likely to work the body against emmett and win a spirited striking bout with a stoppage in the later rounds or decision depending on how tough emmett is, but emmett by KO especially in the early rounds is possible. I don't see either fighter preferring to take it to the ground unless they get rocked. I think topuria could defend emmets tds and i think topuria could opportunistically wrestle emmett.
 
I am surprised nobody likes Jenkins here. He is a pretty big dog but, is a solid striker. Emmers' also looks like he would be very susceptible to calve kicks.

I have some small action on him... His -3.5 line is -145 I'm also looking at taking a bigger steak in that possibly
 
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