UFC on ABC 5: Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria, Jacksonville, Florida, June 24

[Georges Hefner]

Okay but I'm not sure that's a great reason to fade him

Emmett is going to be 11 pounds heavier and will have home advantage

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Emmett is going to be 11 pounds heavier and will have home advantage

That's more of a solid reason.

 

[johno]

Okay but I'm not sure that's a great reason to fade him

Definitely leave emotions out of this game, it can burn you big time

 

[Georges Hefner]

That's more of a solid reason.

Emmett also trains at Team Alpha Male. That gym is known for takedown defense. It’s going to be a striking fight & Josh is more durable and has more power. Topuria overswings & doesn’t tuck his chin. He also has no variety in his striking arsenal. He has power but his technique is that of a novice

 

[Georges Hefner]

The UFC made the main event in front of an American crowd because they want Emmett to win. They know Emmett has 5 rounds of experience. The matchmakers know that they are doing. The UFC invested a lot of money into promoting Josh Emmett. People forget UFC is a business first

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Ilia has a weak body

emmett via liver kick rd 2

 

['Suga Daddy']

The UFC made the main event in front of an American crowd because they want Emmett to win. They know Emmett has 5 rounds of experience. The matchmakers know that they are doing. The UFC invested a lot of money into promoting Josh Emmett. People forget UFC is a business first

You don’t know what your talking about haha, you thinking the UFC think Emmett is gonna win is one of the most laughable takes in a while

 

[mkess101]

Hindsight is 20/20 , he didn’t know know he was gonna win

But his choice was correct. He instinctively did what what he had to do to stay in the fight and give himself a chance to win. That's not hindsight.

 

[MixMartialFarts]

The UFC made the main event in front of an American crowd because they want Emmett to win. They know Emmett has 5 rounds of experience. The matchmakers know that they are doing. The UFC invested a lot of money into promoting Josh Emmett. People forget UFC is a business first

I feel like they definitely want Topuria to win. The young cocky (undefeated?) kid from Spain (a new market) who knocks people the fuck out. Emmet is a fighters fighter, the hardcores love him but not much of a personality and he is 38 years old, they cant make money off him long turn.

 

[HighStakesMMA]

I'll happily bite on Emmett to win and Emmett by stoppage. Topuria hits hard. Beyond that I'm not sure I've seen enough to justify these odds. Also, according to B365's current odds for Emmett to win by stoppage:

Round 1: 13.00
Round 2: 19.00
Round 3: 31.00
Round 4: 34.00
Round 5: 34.00

I will be degen sprinkling on rounds 3, 4 and 5 stoppage. If Ilia doesn't flatline Emmett in round 1-2 I think this becomes a dog fight with my money on a proven grinder with heavy hands.

 

[Thesnake101]

Ilia has a weak body

emmett via liver kick rd 2

Spinning back kick imo.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Spinning back kick imo.

I was thinking capoeira kick

 

[Thesnake101]

Taira fight cancelled cuz Rodrigues couldn't make weight, hit the scale at 129lbs.

 

[guesswhoseback]

You don’t know what your talking about haha, you thinking the UFC think Emmett is gonna win is one of the most laughable takes in a while

Uhh. Adrian yanez vs rob font. Yanez got flatluned

 

['Suga Daddy']

Uhh. Adrian yanez vs rob font. Yanez got flatluned

I'm not saying Emmett can't win. No not at all. This donkey is claiming that not only will Emmett win but that the UFC are confident he's going to. Its laughable cause they clearly think Topuria is gonna smoke Emmett, how true that is remains to be seen.

 

[guesswhoseback]

I'm not saying Emmett can't win. No not at all. This donkey is claiming that not only will Emmett win but that the UFC are confident he's going to. Its laughable cause they clearly think Topuria is gonna smoke Emmett, how true that is remains to be seen.

Lol obviously the UFC wants topiria to win

 

['Suga Daddy']

Lol obviously the UFC wants topiria to win

Yeah exactly my point

 

[King-Ryan]

Van is a better striker than Zhalgas imo, he for sure is more dangerous, and his grappling has been rapidly improving every single fight so I wouldn't be shocked if he is also the better grappler by now.

Personally, I am staying away from the fight, otherwise I would label it as dog or pass.

For me I'm liking Zhalgas here. I think Van has a more traditional striking style but I noticed he throws naked leg kicks and has tendencys to drop his hands and be there to be hit while throwing which I think Zhalgas can exploit never mind his grappling.

If Zhalgas wasn't robbed in his last couple of fights this line would probably be -400 to -500 wouldn't it? Zhalges cutting weight last week worries me but it's balanced out a bit with Van being on short notice I guess... I have Zhalgas ITD sprinkled in some side bets and his ML in a couple of parlays.

 

[King-Ryan]

Has the Allen fight been discussed much? I'm thinking about playing Allen ITD -105 and then puting Silva KO RD1 in some of my round robin degen prop side bets as a hedge.

Thoughts?

 

[Omegaboy13]

Barber is a pretty decent betting line here. Emmet at +300ish is pretty crazy, I think Ilia will win, but the 25% chance that Emmet pulls it out is pretty good parlay cannon fodder.