UFC Vegas 62: Grasso vs. Araujo, Sat, Oct 15

[Stat_Collector]

I think that was pretty early Giga though, his TDD has improved quite a lot since then. I think if they rematched now Giga would kick his ass tbh.

He also went split with Kang, he's not as bad as you might think. He came in on short notice with bad knees. Mana's been beat by Drako who is regional level, split with Canetti in a fight i thought he lost . Davis has also has an overhand like mana. He matched Zabit in rnd 1 sig.strikes in their fight. I just think it has dog or pass feel to it, a 9-3 guy who is 1-3 in the ufc, no entry through dwcs. Never really earned his stripes. Im not waging money in this fight and i only saw mana/canneti and Davis/Giga. So i'm only giving my two cents, you might have better insight.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

He also went split with Kang, he's not as bad as you might think. He came in on short notice with bad knees. Mana's been beat by Drako who is regional level, split with Canetti in a fight i thought he lost . Davis has also has an overhand like mana. He matched Zabit in rnd 1 sig.strikes in their fight. I just think it has dog or pass feel to it, a 9-3 guy who is 1-3 in the ufc, no entry through dwcs. Never really earned his stripes. Im not waging money in this fight and i only saw mana/canneti and Davis/Giga. So i'm only giving my two cents, you might have better insight.

I don't think he's shit. My main concern is just that he's so hittable. Mana I don't think is anything special but he does hit very hard (utterly starched Jose Johnson and really badly hurt Lawrence even in the 3rd round). I tend to think if he clocks Davis clean then he might very well be going to sleep or at least rocked badly enough to lose rounds.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don't think he's shit. My main concern is just that he's so hittable. Mana I don't think is anything special but he does hit very hard (utterly starched Jose Johnson and really badly hurt Lawrence even in the 3rd round). I tend to think if he clocks Davis clean then he might very well be going to sleep or at least rocked badly enough to lose rounds.

but you gotta look at the why he starched those guys. Lawence drops his hands a lot, and Jose is not a gd striker. its possible for him to ko him, but Davis might come in grappling heavy and throw mana off his game, if mana does win id play 3rd rnd stoppage.

 

[Thesnake101]

He also went split with Kang, he's not as bad as you might think. He came in on short notice with bad knees. Mana's been beat by Drako who is regional level, split with Canetti in a fight i thought he lost . Davis has also has an overhand like mana. He matched Zabit in rnd 1 sig.strikes in their fight. I just think it has dog or pass feel to it, a 9-3 guy who is 1-3 in the ufc, no entry through dwcs. Never really earned his stripes. Im not waging money in this fight and i only saw mana/canneti and Davis/Giga. So i'm only giving my two cents, you might have better insight.

One thing in regards to the Mana/Guido fight is that Mana's coach had passed away shortly before the fight, so I don't think he was in the best head space going into it.

 

[sonhow]

One thing in regards to the Mana/Guido fight is that Mana's coach had passed away shortly before the fight, so I don't think he was in the best head space going into it.

If i remember correctly most had Mana knocking Guido out in the first and when it didn't happen this seemed like the most logical explanation.
Davis is pretty weird fighter. I'd stay away from betting him if I didn't get big odds on him. On the other hand he seems to do some good things but never puts it all together to gain the meaningful wins. Is surviving rd.1 and beating Costa before it was cool his ufc highlight? I kinda remember him taking a round from Zabit before getting subbed as well though I'm not sure.

 

[Stat_Collector]

• Piera Rodriguez - By Ko 700+ is not bad.

 

[GrantSorenson]

I'll be pretty surprised if Royval wild style get's him a win over someone like Askarov.He's always dangerous but he's overachieved already IMO.Askarov will take him down hold him,take him down again,maybe get to the back in a scramble.He's 1,53 but if he got the nod against KKF he would probably be 1,30 here.

He shouldn't have got the nod against KKF, clear loss, unanimous dec. I think Royval is too much for Askarov.

 

[Bakayoko]

He shouldn't have got the nod against KKF, clear loss, unanimous dec. I think Royval is too much for Askarov.

Everyone had it 1-1 and third a close round,wouldn't be a robbery if it went the other way.
Different match-up this one though.I would understand if you think the line is wide,but you say you think Royval will win,go hard on him then at these odds.But I'm curious,why you think Royval is too much for Askarov?

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Everyone had it 1-1 and third a close round,wouldn't be a robbery if it went the other way.
Different match-up this one though.I would understand if you think the line is wide,but you say you think Royval will win,go hard on him then at these odds.But I'm curious,why you think Royval is too much for Askarov?

Royval has a ridiculous pace and is hyper aggressive. He won’t accept being on his back. Askar doesn’t have power in his hands to keep royval off of him. We’ve seen him fade in fights

askarov winning at a 70% clip? I don’t see it

 

[Esaú Moreira]

Royval's BJJ is pretty good tbf. Askarov wont be that comfortable on the ground.

 

[Thesnake101]

Royval's BJJ is pretty good tbf. Askarov wont be that comfortable on the ground.

He can get really sloppy with it though, wouldn't be surprised if we saw Askarov finally get a sub in the UFC.

Keep in mind the guy was pulling off twisters back at ACB. Honestly, I'm on the other side of the equation here, I think Royval won't be able to stop Askar from doing whatever he wants. He'll try, but I don't think he'll be good enough.

 

[mkess101]

Everyone had it 1-1 and third a close round,wouldn't be a robbery if it went the other way.
Different match-up this one though.I would understand if you think the line is wide,but you say you think Royval will win,go hard on him then at these odds.But I'm curious,why you think Royval is too much for Askarov?

Was definitely 1-1 but 3rd really wasn't close. KKF stuffed the only TD attempt, looked much fresher, and outlanded Ask by about double. And the better, cleaner strikes too iirc. Was a pretty clear rd for KKF.

Big takeaway for me was Askarov slowing like he did. Royval might get held down early in this one but he'll fight to the end and he's aggressive enough to get a late stoppage if Ask really slows a lot.

Not sure I'll have a bet at all but I'd be wary laying all sorts of juice on Ask here. I do think he should be favored but north of -250? No thanks.

 

[jnes]

I can see the play on Royval, dude has one of the best gas tanks and throws an absurd amount of volume and is never resting. Askarov hates fighting at a high pace. Royval will make Askarov work, but I kind of expect Askarov to bag the first 2 rounds, but by the time the 3rd comes he could be exhausted and Royval could just snag a finish out of nowhere. Not a fight I'm interested in playing, but a great fight for the division!

It's the classic betting on skill or absurd conditioning.

 

[sonhow]

Royval's game works off getting takendown and scrambling from bottom against this type of fighter. Askarov is a very good top scrambler. Unless KKF broke his confidence it's just kinda hard not to see him getting takedown + back control.
Seems pretty straight forward to me.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Generally speaking these ex ACA top Russians are extremely good at shutting scrambly BJJ down.

 

[mkess101]

Generally speaking these ex ACA top Russians are extremely good at shutting scrambly BJJ down.

I tend to agree, my hesitation with Askar is how bad his gas tank failed him vs KKF in a fight that likely wasn't as fast paced as this one will be. If not for the major questions with Askar's cardio I'd completely agree with you.

 

[Danis_champ]

Anyone else thinks Misha might be a good bet especially at those odds?

I'm aware about his chin and problems outside of the octagon but Alonzo is a big step down from the guys Misha has fought. (maybe not Jotko) Alonzo has beaten trash competition - Cherant (cut), Mozharov (fraud), Herman (old and washed). Other than that his best win is Paul Craig who was considered a bum 3 years ago. Misha would run through these guys as well.

This feels more like a coin flip fight. Alonzo could knock him out or Misha grind him out or expose that bad ground game.

Alonzo is so overrated. Ed Herman almost beat him. Alonzo 34 years old too don't see him ever becoming elite.

 

[mkess101]

Anyone else thinks Misha might be a good bet especially at those odds?

I'm aware about his chin and problems outside of the octagon but Alonzo is a big step down from the guys Misha has fought. (maybe not Jotko) Alonzo has beaten trash competition - Cherant (cut), Mozharov (fraud), Herman (old and washed). Other than that his best win is Paul Craig who was considered a bum 3 years ago. Misha would run through these guys as well.

This feels more like a coin flip fight. Alonzo could knock him out or Misha grind him out or expose that bad ground game.

Alonzo is so overrated. Ed Herman almost beat him. Alonzo 34 years old too don't see him ever becoming elite.

Problem is I just don't see Misha having the strength or technique to take Menifield down. If he does get him down then yeah Alonzo could be in real trouble, real fast. But Misha seems to telegraph his shot, and I think Menifield is too physically strong for Misha to get him from a trip or something in the clinch.

I think Alonzo sparks him pretty early when Misha gets reckless trying to Clos distance.

Edit: Also, the Herman fight was Alonzo beating the dogshit out of Ed most of the fight but Ed went zombie mode iirc. If pretty much ANY of those punches land on Misha it's almost a lock that the fight is over given how easy Misha is to put away with strikes.

 

[Broe.]

Anyone else thinks Misha might be a good bet especially at those odds?

I'm aware about his chin and problems outside of the octagon but Alonzo is a big step down from the guys Misha has fought. (maybe not Jotko) Alonzo has beaten trash competition - Cherant (cut), Mozharov (fraud), Herman (old and washed). Other than that his best win is Paul Craig who was considered a bum 3 years ago. Misha would run through these guys as well.

This feels more like a coin flip fight. Alonzo could knock him out or Misha grind him out or expose that bad ground game.

Alonzo is so overrated. Ed Herman almost beat him. Alonzo 34 years old too don't see him ever becoming elite.

Yeah he is a good bet. Menifield is pretty bad but he is heavyanded and Cirkunov is a chinny quitter so he is always a bit scary to bet on.

Imo a lot of dogs are good bets this card. I like Vergara, Swanson, Hughes and Araujo. I havent liked this many underdogs in a long time.

 

[Thesnake101]

Anyone else thinks Misha might be a good bet especially at those odds?

I'm aware about his chin and problems outside of the octagon but Alonzo is a big step down from the guys Misha has fought. (maybe not Jotko) Alonzo has beaten trash competition - Cherant (cut), Mozharov (fraud), Herman (old and washed). Other than that his best win is Paul Craig who was considered a bum 3 years ago. Misha would run through these guys as well.

This feels more like a coin flip fight. Alonzo could knock him out or Misha grind him out or expose that bad ground game.

Alonzo is so overrated. Ed Herman almost beat him. Alonzo 34 years old too don't see him ever becoming elite.

Alonzo is hard to get down and hits hard though. That seems to be more than enough to beat Misha nowadays.