UFC Vegas 62: Grasso vs. Araujo, Sat, Oct 15

can someone tell me why cub decided to cut down to 135？
 
Id wait and see how Cub looks on scales. Jonathan has lost to worse fighters than him, has lapses where he does nothing, still somehow gasses and Cub laid waste on Elkins pretty easily so I dont think he is shot or anything.
Odds only reflect on Cubs big cut imo.
 
Cub has looked great against Elkins and Pineda, but that's Elkins and Pineda. Both old, both at the end of their careers, Elkins is so beat up, so slow, so washed, that was a complete mismatch - I bet Cub big there and his KO line and KO 1. Pineda off the juice has lost what was getting him wins in the PFL, strength, cardio, physicality in the grappling. He still lit Cub's calf up with kicks to the point Cub was switching stances.

I don't think Cub is washed but he's not going to have a speed advance here, he's going to get kicked to the calf and body, he's playing a game of speed and reflexes against a younger man who's on a roll in a faster devision.

The weight cut may be easy for Cub, but how many 38 to 40 year old bantamweight are winning fights and looking good? People are pointing to Aldo making the drop and having success - Aldo was 33 at the time, Cub is one month away from 39. Aldo was fighting and competing with top tier fighters before he made the drop, he was still a top 5-3 fighter, Cub is fighting washed up old men or he's losing
 
2020Tracked said:
Cub has looked great against Elkins and Pineda, but that's Elkins and Pineda. Both old, both at the end of their careers, Elkins is so beat up, so slow, so washed, that was a complete mismatch - I bet Cub big there and his KO line and KO 1. Pineda off the juice has lost what was getting him wins in the PFL, strength, cardio, physicality in the grappling. He still lit Cub's calf up with kicks to the point Cub was switching stances.

I don't think Cub is washed but he's not going to have a speed advance here, he's going to get kicked to the calf and body, he's playing a game of speed and reflexes against a younger man who's on a roll in a faster devision.

The weight cut may be easy for Cub, but how many 38 to 40 year old bantamweight are winning fights and looking good? People are pointing to Aldo making the drop and having success - Aldo was 33 at the time, Cub is one month away from 39. Aldo was fighting and competing with top tier fighters before he made the drop, he was still a top 5-3 fighter, Cub is fighting washed up old men or he's losing
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I'm not betting Cub but hard pass on Martinez too. Paying decent juice on guys who can't or won't finish anyone decent is a long term losing strategy. There are spots to do it, this isn't one of them imo.
 
mkess101 said:
I'm not betting Cub but hard pass on Martinez too. Paying decent juice on guys who can't or won't finish anyone decent is a long term losing strategy. There are spots to do it, this isn't one of them imo.
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I believe Martinez gets the finish. You have to go back 10 years to see a quality win on Cub's record, going to decision with Artem Lobov is a recent decade highlight
 
2020Tracked said:
I believe Martinez gets the finish. You have to go back 10 years to see a quality win on Cub's record, going to decision with Artem Lobov is a recent decade highlight
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If Martinez finishes him, I'll reassess Martinez I guess. He seems to always fight safe, looks to just outpoint guys instead of hurt them. Stylistically a way different fight obviously but Cub did school on Kron when Kron was coming off an easy sub win over Caceras (who went on to win 5 straight after losing to Kron). Cub isn't in his prime, no question. It's why I have no desire to bet him here. If the line was evens or Martinez was -125 or something I'd maybe be on him. But not at close to -200.
 
2020Tracked said:
I believe Martinez gets the finish. You have to go back 10 years to see a quality win on Cub's record, going to decision with Artem Lobov is a recent decade highlight
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If Martinez couldn't finish Almeida, Perez or Morales I'm not sure I'd bet him to finish Cub Swanson who's only ever been finished by top 10 guys.
 
Fading Mana Martinez against Brandon Davis looks like a really easy decision.

I don't think much of Brandon Davis, but he caused Giga Chikadze problems years ago courtesy of his wrestling, and has beaten bums like Randy Costa and Steve 'Ocho' Peterson prior to that, so his baseline is obviously not as low as some are assuming. The fact he's made it back to the UFC with a dreadful numerical record is creditable. I think overall, he's much better than his record suggests. The dude has lost to monsters, but the problem is, he lost to them before he established himself. A game dude, reasonable wrestling, very tough for his calibre. There's real Alex Caceres vibes, here, where I'm seeing a guy who will be unfairly overlooked pretty constantly.

Mana Martinez struggled horribly with Ronnie Lawrence's wrestling, and lost on Contender Series to a very mediocre Drako Rodriguez. His striking is pretty good, and when he's got confidence, he's a challenge - but this looks like a horrible stylistic match for him.

I'd be interested in Brandon Davis + Jacob Malkoun, and I'd probably be more worried about Malkoun coming through a very technical challenge against Maximov - but one I think he can win, given Maximov doesn't finish at this level and Malkoun is far too pressure heavy for him from what I've seen.
 
Siver! said:
Fading Mana Martinez against Brandon Davis looks like a really easy decision.

I don't think much of Brandon Davis, but he caused Giga Chikadze problems years ago courtesy of his wrestling, and has beaten bums like Randy Costa and Steve 'Ocho' Peterson prior to that, so his baseline is obviously not as low as some are assuming. The fact he's made it back to the UFC with a dreadful numerical record is creditable. I think overall, he's much better than his record suggests. The dude has lost to monsters, but the problem is, he lost to them before he established himself. A game dude, reasonable wrestling, very tough for his calibre. There's real Alex Caceres vibes, here, where I'm seeing a guy who will be unfairly overlooked pretty constantly.

Mana Martinez struggled horribly with Ronnie Lawrence's wrestling, and lost on Contender Series to a very mediocre Drako Rodriguez. His striking is pretty good, and when he's got confidence, he's a challenge - but this looks like a horrible stylistic match for him.

I'd be interested in Brandon Davis + Jacob Malkoun, and I'd probably be more worried about Malkoun coming through a very technical challenge against Maximov - but one I think he can win, given Maximov doesn't finish at this level and Malkoun is far too pressure heavy for him from what I've seen.
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Davis got by against Costa purely on his toughness though, and he faced a similar matchup for his UFC return against Daana and wound up getting ran over without putting too much of a fight, so he might be falling off. Think he came in injured for that one, but still, didn't like that look for him.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Davis got by against Costa purely on his toughness though, and he faced a similar matchup for his UFC return against Daana and wound up getting ran over without putting too much of a fight, so he might be falling off. Think he came in injured for that one, but still, didn't like that look for him.
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Agreed, and that's basically the Randy Costa story - survive his first attacks, you'll win.

But Giga is another devil, and a totally different level to Costa or Mana.

I don't like this fight for Mana, I think they're misjudging it.

It's worth noting how Danaa walked through Cannetti - which shows us he's a little above this level in terms of finishing ability.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Davis got by against Costa purely on his toughness though, and he faced a similar matchup for his UFC return against Daana and wound up getting ran over without putting too much of a fight, so he might be falling off. Think he came in injured for that one, but still, didn't like that look for him.
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He has been fighting with no ACL on the regionals and his UFC debut. That explains why he looked so much worse and less athletic. He has had surgery on it after the Danna fight, so surely some improvements are to be seen. Mana has the same faults as Davis, both aren't very athletic or explosive. Guido at his age looked way quicker and stronger, as did Danna against Davis. They have a lot of similarities actually, but Mana does possess more one-punch power. Dog or pass for me but a tough fight to get a read on.
 
Siver! said:
Fading Mana Martinez against Brandon Davis looks like a really easy decision.

I don't think much of Brandon Davis, but he caused Giga Chikadze problems years ago courtesy of his wrestling, and has beaten bums like Randy Costa and Steve 'Ocho' Peterson prior to that, so his baseline is obviously not as low as some are assuming. The fact he's made it back to the UFC with a dreadful numerical record is creditable. I think overall, he's much better than his record suggests. The dude has lost to monsters, but the problem is, he lost to them before he established himself. A game dude, reasonable wrestling, very tough for his calibre. There's real Alex Caceres vibes, here, where I'm seeing a guy who will be unfairly overlooked pretty constantly.

Mana Martinez struggled horribly with Ronnie Lawrence's wrestling, and lost on Contender Series to a very mediocre Drako Rodriguez. His striking is pretty good, and when he's got confidence, he's a challenge - but this looks like a horrible stylistic match for him.

I'd be interested in Brandon Davis + Jacob Malkoun, and I'd probably be more worried about Malkoun coming through a very technical challenge against Maximov - but one I think he can win, given Maximov doesn't finish at this level and Malkoun is far too pressure heavy for him from what I've seen.
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Not sure I agree with this. Davis tends to get hit a lot and Mana has one punch KO power which he carries late into the fight.
 
Why do some people keep saying that 'Maximov will be the bigger guy in this fight'

Based on what? I think tapo has Malkoun's heigh incorrect. it says 5'9" but he looks 6'1". Face to face he looked an inch shorter than Allen.

1241220672.0.jpg
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Not sure I agree with this. Davis tends to get hit a lot and Mana has one punch KO power which he carries late into the fight.
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davis has some wrestling pedigree in his arsenal, watch the giga fight

pass for both

edit : it was brought up before.
 
Last edited:
Stat_Collector said:
davis has some wrestling pedigree in his arsenal, watch the giga fight

pass for both
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I think that was pretty early Giga though, his TDD has improved quite a lot since then. I think if they rematched now Giga would kick his ass tbh.
 
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