Think I've seen enough of Meerschaert and Ryan Janes.
Starting with Janes, he has nice shot selection and good output, little in combination but picks off well enough as range to land sustained damage. His defence however is far behind his offence. Tall for division at 6'3 he stands very straight, if people get past the jab they can land fairly hard. Berish managed this several times early in their last fight before flagging in the second round. The other concern is the takedown defence, the gassed Berish still managed them in the third, albeit didn't have sustained control to steal the round. Stann (who always has great tidbits from his pre-fight interviews) mentioned that Janes wasn't scared of the ground (many subs to his record) but wanted to get there on his terms and that lack of wrestling technique and confidence showed thorough, and might again vs Meerschaert. He calls a second round Sub from his interview despite this, and also likes Tom Segura and Bill Burr, good dude. One thing I was surprised to discover is that he's 35! Thought of him as the younger prospect comparing records but Meerschaert is only 29!
Meerschaert is a long standing veteran of Rufus Sport, a lot of his peers are apparently high on him but it's taken him a long time to reach the UFC. His calm and composure really shined in his debut. His offence doesn't have the output of Janes but has sting on his punches. However, like Janes he has some deficient defense, some of the backing straight up defence so prevalent in Rufus Sport. One worry I have is that he does that straight into a headkick which Janes flashed a few times in his fight, as he backs and turns to the left but he's never been KO'd in his career. One thing that I really liked to hear was how much tape watching he's done according to his interview, he obviously can see many of the standing defense problems of Janes and calls a KO in R2, which is quite reasonable to believe in. However, perhaps a easier path of victory to exploit Janes on the ground, I am very confident the takedown will be there for him and he certainly has shown slick transitions to snatch subs. It's not out of the question that he gets caught himself but I have good faith in a 33 fight veteran winning mostly my sub has the cohesive ground game to avoid it, he's essentially faced similar levels of fighters as Janes for a good long while now at the upper levels of the regional scene.
In conclusion, Meerschaert is in a good position to take the win but it's not airtight, the odds are perhaps too steep but I like him above many of the similar favourites on the card. He is a fairly consistent finisher as well, so maybe the value will be there Meerschaert ITD, the really safe play might be just ITD alone. However, I am still taking him, Janes is lacking some the dynamism to make him a real risk and I feel confident that Meerschaert knows how to form a strong gameplan, after this long arriving to the UFC, I don't think he wants to be sent packing. I'm going to agree with Meerschaert here with a R2 finish, but I feel its more likely he finishes with a submission after either man has enough standing. I've parlayed him with McMann, see my previous breakdown for the reasons why I feel this is a reliable double.