UFN 118 - Cerrone vs Till - Poland

[lifeisgood12345]

I'm having trouble finding matchups that I like outside of the main event so I might just shove every dollar I own on Cerrone and call it a day. Let's talk about how ridiculously good this bet is.

Cowboy has fought 20 times from 2012-2017, and has gone 15-5. He was finished 3 times by Anthony Pettis, Jorge Masvidal, and Rafael Dos Anjos. All monsters with MUCH more finishing power than Till. And when Cerrone doesn't get finished, he is nearly impossible to beat.

His only losses were decisions to RDA and Lawler, with the recent Lawler fight being a coinflip loss that could have gone either way. A coinflip vs Lawler is probably a win vs Till, and Till is definitely not on par with prime RDA.

And that's if Till has the good fortune to survive until decision. Cowboy has won 10 of his last 20 fights ITD. His list of victims is not bad: Edson Barboza, Evan Dunham, Jim Miller, Alex Oliveira, Patrick Cote, Adriano Martins, Rick Story, Matt Brown, Melvin Guillard, John Makdessi.

Is Till more likely to survive than a random person on this list? Given that he hasn't fought a legit finishing threat yet and has to go 5 rounds, I would say no.

The current line of Cerrone -140 would arguably be accurate if we were handicapping the odds of finishing ITD. When you consider that Till is unlikely to finish and Cerrone is a clear fave to win the decision if this fight goes the distance, the current line is straight up bonkers.

I can't reconcile how Cowboy should be less than -300 here.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

fwiw, I think it has yet to be mentioned that Wilson will drop to Middleweight for his fight with Piechota.

I have been debating how much this matters-- I think probably not a ton but it could help Wilson.

I further reviewed Piechota, and the big concern for him is the gas tank. He turned into a worthless pile of ass in rounds 2 + 3 vs Rafal Haratyk

So I'm probably not going to bother with this fight.

 

[2bet]

Where is my polish Sherdogbro Wiktoruspro?
Give us some special polish insider info please

 

[piglord]

i thought i may like emeev but after tape review i can't trust him not to get wrestle fucked by the much bigger smith.

i'll be interested to see the lines on this.

i don't have one solid lean. this looks like the type of card where you play the value instead of go with strong leans (the type of card where i normally get murdered).

 

[ChoKuRei]

This is a sick card for betting, have very strong initial leans... The lines will dictate wager size indeed. Lets get it baby

 

[SBJJ]

i thought i may like emeev but after tape review i can't trust him not to get wrestle fucked by the much bigger smith.

i'll be interested to see the lines on this.

i don't have one solid lean. this looks like the type of card where you play the value instead of go with strong leans (the type of card where i normally get murdered).

I see a couple of potential spots

 

[turbozed]

Hit the Till dec line at +645. Going to go big on Cerrone at this cheap -155 price and wait for line movement to buy out. I think this matchup is probably a coinflip so might be on ML and the over later.

And of course the line keeps dropping for Cerrone, at -145 now.

 

[lawmills2006]

Cerrone in a 5 round fight? All day.

2.5u Cerrone @ -150

 

[Papi]

At current odds the value is def on cowboy for all the reasons mentioned above. I thought he would be -2xx pretty good line..till is such a fuckin sniper tho someone mentioned it earlier i wouldnt be suprised at all if till tags him rd1 and you can live bet cerrone for + money..i didnt like the way he wasnt checking kicks against bojan either

 

[Shoulder]

I really dont see Cowboy losing this, he could have won the Lawler fight and Till is on a much lower level than the guys thats been beating Cerrone. [email protected] and Ill live bet more after the first.

 

[Dick]

Smashing Cerrone at -175. I think this ends up in a similar result as Cerrone/Jury.

Putting more on Cerrone at -160 and smashing Devin Clark at -138, as well as parlaying the two.

 

[wack3d]

Putting more on Cerrone at -160 and smashing Devin Clark at -138, as well as parlaying the two.

why not play the over instead of Clark? slightly worse price but much better bet imo no way he is finishing Jan

 

[EzFlyer]

why not play the over instead of Clark? slightly worse price but much better bet imo no way he is finishing Jan

i keep tellin people this stuff!

 

[AxeMurderer]

I went with ml Clark because I think there is a better chance of a Clark finish than Jan winning. But I feel safe with both bets.

 

[EzFlyer]

I went with ml Clark because I think there is a better chance of a Clark finish than Jan winning. But I feel safe with both bets.

I disagree with that assessment, sadly :/

But I think Clark dec is most likely outcome, so it may be moot

 

[piglord]

anyone know if this will be new or old rules?

 

[SBJJ]

anyone know if this will be new or old rules?

1 judge under old rules. 1 under new rules. And 1 judge under rugby rules

Reading judges is like reading EZs betting breakdowns. Ugggghhh

 

[waiguoren]

1 judge under old rules. 1 under new rules. And 1 judge under rugby rules

funny

Reading judges is like reading EZs betting breakdowns. Ugggghhh

What? Everything EZ posts is crystal clear.

 

[SBJJ]

funny



What? Everything EZ posts is crystal clear.

Crystal Clear if you are on Crystal Meth!!!!!

 

[NinjaCat456]

anyone know if this will be new or old rules?

We generally don't know the ruleset in place until Jon Anik announces it at the beginning of the broadcast.