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- Aug 31, 2017
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I'm having trouble finding matchups that I like outside of the main event so I might just shove every dollar I own on Cerrone and call it a day. Let's talk about how ridiculously good this bet is.
Cowboy has fought 20 times from 2012-2017, and has gone 15-5. He was finished 3 times by Anthony Pettis, Jorge Masvidal, and Rafael Dos Anjos. All monsters with MUCH more finishing power than Till. And when Cerrone doesn't get finished, he is nearly impossible to beat.
His only losses were decisions to RDA and Lawler, with the recent Lawler fight being a coinflip loss that could have gone either way. A coinflip vs Lawler is probably a win vs Till, and Till is definitely not on par with prime RDA.
And that's if Till has the good fortune to survive until decision. Cowboy has won 10 of his last 20 fights ITD. His list of victims is not bad: Edson Barboza, Evan Dunham, Jim Miller, Alex Oliveira, Patrick Cote, Adriano Martins, Rick Story, Matt Brown, Melvin Guillard, John Makdessi.
Is Till more likely to survive than a random person on this list? Given that he hasn't fought a legit finishing threat yet and has to go 5 rounds, I would say no.
The current line of Cerrone -140 would arguably be accurate if we were handicapping the odds of finishing ITD. When you consider that Till is unlikely to finish and Cerrone is a clear fave to win the decision if this fight goes the distance, the current line is straight up bonkers.
I can't reconcile how Cowboy should be less than -300 here.
Cowboy has fought 20 times from 2012-2017, and has gone 15-5. He was finished 3 times by Anthony Pettis, Jorge Masvidal, and Rafael Dos Anjos. All monsters with MUCH more finishing power than Till. And when Cerrone doesn't get finished, he is nearly impossible to beat.
His only losses were decisions to RDA and Lawler, with the recent Lawler fight being a coinflip loss that could have gone either way. A coinflip vs Lawler is probably a win vs Till, and Till is definitely not on par with prime RDA.
And that's if Till has the good fortune to survive until decision. Cowboy has won 10 of his last 20 fights ITD. His list of victims is not bad: Edson Barboza, Evan Dunham, Jim Miller, Alex Oliveira, Patrick Cote, Adriano Martins, Rick Story, Matt Brown, Melvin Guillard, John Makdessi.
Is Till more likely to survive than a random person on this list? Given that he hasn't fought a legit finishing threat yet and has to go 5 rounds, I would say no.
The current line of Cerrone -140 would arguably be accurate if we were handicapping the odds of finishing ITD. When you consider that Till is unlikely to finish and Cerrone is a clear fave to win the decision if this fight goes the distance, the current line is straight up bonkers.
I can't reconcile how Cowboy should be less than -300 here.