I don’t really feel like arguing but here it goes haha.
We’re arguing different things here: you’re saying that 1% of people have the potential to run a 4.6. You’re saying if everyone dedicated their time/money/lives to improving their 40 time, 1% would reach 4.6s. What’s the point of making such a difficult statement to analyze? The thread is about labeling grade-A athletes. These are athletes in the world we live in. Not some imaginary world where every single person is attempting to maximize their athletic potential.
The link I posted was an analysis of the hand timing that the NFL combine uses. It shows two things: first that hand timing reduces the athletes time due to the reaction time of the timer, and second that the reaction time is not consistent between tests. On average (small sample size) 40y times are 0.16s slower than stated by the NFL. The opposite happens with 100m times that are initiated with a gun. The reaction time is ADDED to the 100m time instead of subtracted.
So let’s say you found 10 kids who ran sub 11.3s in Colorado state. Obviously that number increases as the kids reach their early 20s but still ... how many kids are born in Colorado in any given year? There’s just no way 1% of people can run a 11.21 or 4.6 or whatever you’re saying.
~3.5 billion males on this planet. No possible way 35 million will ever have the ability to run a 4.6 40y.
Your argument that many WR and CB run sub 4.6 at the combine is not helping your case. The participants of the NFL combine are already >99th percentile.
Well that's exactly what I'm saying and I don't think it's difficult or absurd. That's how genetics works.
Larry Wheels could have just sat on his couch or did heroin for 10 years, atrophied away. He definitely wouldn't be able to deadlift even 500 pounds, not even 4 plates, maybe not even 3 plates for a single in that parallel universe. But his genetics are the same, his literal DNA coding, his type 2 muscle fiber %, his propensity to build skeletal muscle, etc.
So I don't think that's unfair at all. That's how it has to be. As for the combine, the nerd reddit post accounted for the reaction time. Colorado "the state" not the college lol. Here's a link, I mean we are going way too in depth now but:
https://www.maxpreps.com/leaders/track-field-spring-18/sprints,100+meter/stat-leaders.htm
There were 200 kids in Spring 2018 who ran 11.29 or less, who happened to be listed on this site, who happen to run 100m track. How many kids in HS run 100m in track nation wide? I don't know. And these kids are going to improve as they age, they don't peak at 17-18.
- As for the combine, you were the one who stated that the majority of participants don't run 4.60 or better. I simply showed that the averages for every position that isn't DL/OL/QB/K/P basically are sub 4.6. And okay, yeah most NFL participants are top 1% athletes already, but that's not where ALL the top 1% athletes go, and not every single one is top 1% either for the record.
~3.5 billion people is a fucking lot dude. I don't think it's that far off that 35 million
have the genetic potential to run 4.6 forty yard dashs or better. The fundamental thing here is that you believe a 4.6 is some god-tier feat, it's not. You have to be athletic to achieve it, very athletic arguably, but it's not insane. 2-3 kids from a HS class, 1/100 male non crippled humans, yeah I don't think that's far off the mark.
How many people do you think have the genetic potential to deadlift 500 lbs? How many people DO deadlift 500 lbs right now or could right now? Obviously a different thing. And yes sprinting speed/jumping is more genetic based, but I'm curious as to your standards now. Because a 4.60 is not some god tier feat of athleticism. It's just good to very good.