UFC Fight Night - Sandhagen vs Dillashaw- Offical discussion

mkess101 said:
To be fair I will often comment on fights going off memory only and then watch some tape as the fights approach and it either confirms my thoughts or I see something that I didn't remember and have an altered view. Not even necessarily switching sides or anything drastic, just smaller stuff that I'd forgotten.
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Oh thats fine. I've been watching fights religiously for 17 years. I think the "Did you even tape bro?" crowd are pretentious and/or noobs to the game. I just think its funny he had an almighty attitude, dismissive of my 10/10 reasoning for Ladd being sharp (and the other guy but who cares about him), only to then be like "aight just taped heres my ACTUAL thoughts now"
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
For those who are genuinely curious, the only difference between when I first wrote about Chiasson vs. Ladd and "fully finished tape" is that I closely analyzed Chiasson-Reneau (I had watched it casually before), rewatched a few specific sequences in Ladd-Kunitskaya, and re-read my copious notes on Chiasson and Ladd. Each of which reduced my confidence in Ladd winning.

I've seen every pro fight from both Chiasson and Ladd (and a few of their amateur fights), have taped them both multiple times, and have won multiple units on each, with my only loser being 2u on Chiasson ITD against Lansberg at near-evens.

Of course, everyone is free to decide whether they find my analysis more or less convincing than the ramblings of a wannabe tout who spends most of his time here getting into idiotic, pages-long flamewars, in some cases because he lacks basic reading comprehension. (Like with mkess101)
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"Copious notes" lmfaoooo never taking this guy seriously confirmed

And i'm not tout. I'm just a proven sharp bettor, not a pretentious forum poster who acts almighty w no proven track record. Big time lmfaooo @ you thinking your forum analysis means more than proven record
 
DogsAndKisses said:
"Copious notes" lmfaoooo never taking this guy seriously confirmed

And i'm not tout. I'm just a proven sharp bettor, not a pretentious forum poster who acts almighty w no proven track record. Big time lmfaooo @ you thinking your forum analysis means more than proven record
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Paul’s been around here for a while and myself as well as other members will vouch for him.
He’s sharp and particularly good with women and heavies
 
Doggo_Stat_Collector said:
andre ewell ? any1?
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I wanted to. Can't trust a guy who looks bad in wins that are questionable decisions. When there's a bona-fide scrub he's against, sure. Against someone his level or slightly better, I lean on the other guy. I don't even think Arce is good, I just don't trust Ewell. To that point, what's he gonna do if he's down in the fight? You'd be better off asking if those judges in the Martinez fight are gonna be around to hook him up again
 
So thoughts on taking TJ as the underdog for the main event? Sandhagen is at -200 and some places -185.
I think will risk by throwing some sprakles on the underdog here amusing the old fighting TJ is back this week.

The main event might not go ITD. So its nothing i would be high on Sandhagen even though i do think he might win but i dont see a finish here.
Unless TJ comes back in fighting shape and form.
 
Full disclosure I already sprinkled a tiny bit on TJ but now I think this fight looks similar to Garbrandt vs. Font ironically enough.
 
mkess101 said:
I'd agree that once he started training with Bang his footwork improved tremendously. But that still didn't stop him from being blasted by Garbrandt in their first fight and saved by the first round bell, he essentially was lured into a brawl in that one and happened to be the guy who connected in round 2 with enough time to finish. Granted, he made adjustments for the rematch but Cody really went into spaz mode in that one.

Sandhagen isn't a perfect fighter, but he covers his holes well. He's long and diversified offensively. He has a good chin. His TDD isn't great but he's incredibly active off his back and won't just accept bottom position and lose rounds that way. And I would argue that Aljo wasn't really his "only step up in competition". Edgar obviously is past his prime, but was coming off a good performance vs a tough guy in Munhoz. Moraes was two fights removed from being champ, and was coming off a win vs Aldo (controversial to a degree, but a regardless an extremely close fight). Assuncao has been a top 5 ranked guy forever and had a win over TJ (yes back in 2013 when TJ was still at TAM). I agree that overall TJ has faced better competition, but the gap isn't THAT wide, it's not like Corey fought a bunch of bums outside of Sterling.

I also think there's enough examples of guys who have looked far different once they are forced off their "supplements" to say it's VERY possible (maybe even likely) that TJ will be a noticeably diminished fighter without the juice. I'm happy to play Sandhagen -170. Would I play him -250 or -300? Nah. But odds where they are, hell yes.
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I don't see getting caught by an undefeated Garbrandt as that big of a red flag (it happens sometimes). If anything I credit TJ for being able to recover and completely dominate him in the 2nd rd and the rematch.

What I meant by 'step up' was while Edgar, Moraes and Assuncao are good wins, Aljo was the only fighter he fought who at the time I considered to have the potential to actually fight for the title again. Also Moraes was never the champ, he lost his title fight and arguably should be 0-4 in his last 4. My point was its easy to discredit TJ's wins and call them overrated but then you should judge Sandhagen to the same standards.

I agree there are so many questions over how TJ will look off the juice and the long layoff, I don't blame anyone betting Sandhagen for those reasons. I'm also not convinced TJ isn't still juicing to a degree, and has an advantage by being able to mix in TD's... I favour Sandhagen but only slightly. I wouldn't be confident betting big either way.
 
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Kazda1 said:
I wanted to. Can't trust a guy who looks bad in wins that are questionable decisions. When there's a bona-fide scrub he's against, sure. Against someone his level or slightly better, I lean on the other guy. I don't even think Arce is good, I just don't trust Ewell. To that point, what's he gonna do if he's down in the fight? You'd be better off asking if those judges in the Martinez fight are gonna be around to hook him up again
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Doing further research into Juilo, he has quite the credentials outside of mma. He is my favorite type of fighter. Putting him in my linups.

Specific accomplishments in amateur competition? I accomplished a lot as an amateur: Tri-state kickboxing title, world kickboxing title, 2011 Golden Gloves boxing champion, ROC, Asylum and Helster MMA super lightweight champion, competed in a lot of NAGA tournaments and Grapplers Quest tournaments .


Julio Arce | UFC

I agree with what you said about Andre, he has been gifted a lot of SD.
 
Initially said:
Miranda is a lesbo. Maycee is the most attractive fighter Miranda has fought.

Miranda will simp for Maycee and throw the fight.

Can't beat that analysis.
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Breeh Maverick beat Pearl Gonzales, Barber looks like a potato compared to Pearl

26_Pearl_Gonzalez.jpg
 
mkess101 said:
Kind of depends how you rate TJ's wins along with how skeptical you are if he was revved up on EPO and God knows what else the whole time.

Personally I rate his wins as good but not great, and am of the mind he was likely juiced to the gills through it all.

Edit: I've been super impressed with Kyler Phillips, can't remember Paiva's fights though. Kyler juiced, but he's the real deal.
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Well,like some other guys have mentioned,prime TJ's tehnical skills are top of the crop,yeah he got rocked by Cody but still managed to win and his other wins weren't against bums,that were all good fighters.I don't put much into steroid thing being the reason he was sucessfull,I believe everybody on top is on PED's.As I said,prime TJ beats Cory IMO,now the question is how much will the inactivity affect him and we cannot know that,but this ain't Conor scenario where the guy parties and train's with his unquolified yes man,he could be back without regression.I lean Cory but no way I'll be playing him at this odds.But I might play the over more than TJ.Btw I'm impressed with Kyler too,I think he will be top 10,now Paiva ain't bad and that young he's probably improving too but that record of his is padded and I think he's level below Kyler,don't give him more than 10-15 % tops to win that fight.
 
Initially said:
Miranda is a lesbo. Maycee is the most attractive fighter Miranda has fought.

Miranda will simp for Maycee and throw the fight.

Can't beat that analysis.
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Firstly, how did you reach the conclusion Maycee is the most attractive when she beat up Jojua and Pearl.

Secondly, lesbian strength is the most important factor in a match up like this. How many lesbians have we seen Maycee bully around, especially at flyweight? She can barely handle the feeble straight girls. God help her now Eubanks is back at 125.
 
benebox said:
I don't see getting caught by an undefeated Garbrandt as that big of a red flag (it happens sometimes). If anything I credit TJ for being able to recover and completely dominate him in the 2nd rd and the rematch.

What I meant by 'step up' was while Edgar, Moraes and Assuncao are good wins, Aljo was the only fighter he fought who at the time I considered to have the potential to actually fight for the title again. Also Moraes was never the champ, he lost his title fight and arguably should be 0-4 in his last 4. My point was its easy to discredit TJ's wins and call them overrated but then you should judge Sandhagen to the same standards.

I agree there are so many questions over how TJ will look off the juice and the long layoff, I don't blame anyone betting Sandhagen for those reasons. I'm also not convinced TJ isn't still juicing to a degree, and has an advantage by being able to mix in TD's... I favour Sandhagen but only slightly. I wouldn't be confident betting big either way.
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Yeah IDK why I had it in my head that Cejudo took the belt from Marlon.

But yeah I agree, TJ's resume' and wins are better. I definitely wasn't saying otherwise, just that the gap in their competition isn't that wide when you dig deeper. Cody was undefeated at the time but had padded his record without beating really anyone of note before Dom. And Cody CLEARLY fought like an emo spaz both times vs TJ, it's hard to really assess those fights because Cody that looked so composed vs Dom was nowhere to be found. He just freaked out and wanted to knock TJ's head into the rafters because he hates him.

All that said, I have no problem if someone thinks the best version of TJ is better than the best we've seen of Sandhagen. I may disagree, but I absolutely understand that argument. Really though you nailed it more with why I like Corey here. The active guy who's looked razor sharp vs the guy who was busted for juicing and is (presumably, although I agree there's no way to know for sure) is off the sauce now who's coming in off a long layoff from a suspension. Easy bet for me at -170. If Corey was -250, no way. But where I got him I think it's great value.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Firstly, how did you reach the conclusion Maycee is the most attractive when she beat up Jojua and Pearl.

Secondly, lesbian strength is the most important factor in a match up like this. How many lesbians have we seen Maycee bully around, especially at flyweight? She can barely handle the feeble straight girls. God help her now Eubanks is back at 125.
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At least its not lesbo power from Brazil. I guess Miranda can be handled as she had somewhat close time with Gillian.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Firstly, how did you reach the conclusion Maycee is the most attractive when she beat up Jojua and Pearl.

Secondly, lesbian strength is the most important factor in a match up like this. How many lesbians have we seen Maycee bully around, especially at flyweight? She can barely handle the feeble straight girls. God help her now Eubanks is back at 125.
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If I was ever curious what it would be like to be with a young athletic boy, I would be into Maycee barber

#differentstrokesfordifferentfolks
 
Im liking Soriano against Allen. First of all Allen is super hittable and doesn't seem to mind getting into brawls either, very questionable fight iq. Obviously that's a bad idea against Soriano who hits like a truck.

Secondly I believe it's gonna be hard for Allen to get his bread and butter in this fight, which is his grappling. I believe he's very dangerous in scrambles and on the ground in general, but I don't rate his offensive wrestling that high. Now, I will concede that Soriano's TD defense and grappling from bottom is still a question mark. He does have a decent background as a wrestler with some judo chops as well, and I saw some good fundamentals in a regional fight.
Not sure yet if I want to hit his ML or his ITD, might hit both.
 
Sorry for off topic post, but with sports gambling legal in a lot of states now, some writers who have absolutely no clue how gambling works are trying to incorporate it into their articles and toss in catchphrases like "implied odds" and "juice"

US Women's Olympic soccer team lost an upset to Sweden in the first game.

One article where I was trying to look up what that meant for the group play advancing said

"The Americans were listed at -265 odds, so when you convert those odds to probabilities with the juice removed, it gave the U.S. about a 50% chance to win."

For reference, sweden was around +750. Draw was +350.
 
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