Well, I finished fully taping Ladd-Chiasson. Despite my distaste for the polemical discussion, I initially came into the fight looking to bet Ladd. She is one of the three best wrestlers at 135 (her, Nunes, and Vieira) and has a good, if slightly overrated top game. Clinching with Chiasson isn't too difficult and in the past she has idiotically initiated herself, where Ladd's patented turning outside trip as soon as the S-grip should be successful, regardless of the ACL and MCL tear. Once on the ground, Ladd should beat her up. Even if she doesn't finish her, she should get takedowns again and again and dominate. Easy, right?
Well, that's the best-case scenario, but the more I think about it, the more other possibilities crop up.
And a lot of that has to do with Chiasson's fight against Reneau. Ripped straight from my notes; "Most recently, after stagnation, was much improved against Reneau, including a better left hook, much better defense, fighting smarter, at range, a better stance, an even more dangerous clinch striking game, and showing some nice BJJ from her back with a nifty sweep. Her cardio was better, too."
Even if we think the ACL and MCL tears and coming back don't hurt Ladd's takedowns and Chiasson hasn't improved in that regard, (fairly reasonable assumptions, to be fair) it's also reasonable to assume that Ladd will yet again struggle like hell to make 135, which is responsible for her weak chin and average cardio. And her defense, which is awful, hasn't improved in many fights.
Chiasson might be slower and less accurate than GDR, but she hits just as hard, has a better left hook, and an even more dangerous clinch striking game. There is absolutely a chance that Ladd gets caught early like she did against GDR, especially with Chiasson using her range more, and even if she doesn't, she could eat a huge elbow in the clinch or Chiasson's short right hook off the break.
But let's say Ladd avoids or eats all that and gets the takedown. What happens then? It's actually not so clear. I've always thought Chiasson was pretty good at getting back up; she has excellent butterfly hooks, and while she lacks a certain degree of natural agility, causing her to be slower in getting up from her back, she consistently gets up after takedowns, especially against opponents who aren't a big submission threat, which includes Ladd.
I also loved her use of a heel hook to sweep Reneau, which was gorgeous.
Reneau had pretty good jits herself, and Chiasson swept or got back up quickly immediately each time. Will this work against Ladd? Not necessarily; Ladd has very heavy hip pressure. But it's a possibility.
Furthermore, Ladd's top game is good, but against opponents with some actual jits themselves (Eubanks, Kunitskaya), she can't quite finish them. Which is where cardio comes in. Chiasson has had cardio struggles of her own, but looked a lot better in that regard against Reneau, including a strong round 3. Ladd's grappling weakens marginally in round 2 (although not as quickly as with Eubanks, and at about the same rate as Kunitskaya's) and by round 3, she can't get takedowns anymore. Is Chiasson's cardio good enough to win round 3, and perhaps make for a close round 2?
It's certainly possible.
There are one too many question marks and assumptions for me to play Ladd at -175, although there is certainly a chance she dominates. (For the record, I would want Ladd at better than -150, at the very least)
