UFC Fight Night - Sandhagen vs Dillashaw- Offical discussion

Card said:
Short Notice:
- Belbita and Goldy - 1 week
- Elise Reed, in for Cachoeira (2 wins) - 2.5 weeks notice
- Raulian Paiva, in for Assunção (3 losses) - 3 weeks notice

Fight camps:
Cory Sandhagen vs. TJ Dillashaw - 8+ weeks
Aspen Ladd vs. Macy Chiasson - 8+ weeks
Kyler Phillips vs. Raulian Paiva - Phillips 8+ weeks, Paiva had 3 weeks
Darren Elkins vs. Darrick Minner - 8+ weeks
Miranda Maverick vs. Maycee Barber - 8+ weeks
Mickey Gall vs. Jordan Williams - 8+ weeks
Punahele Soriano vs. Brendan Allen - 8 weeks
Nassourdine Imavov vs. Ian Heinisch - 8+ weeks
Adrian Yanez vs. Randy Costa - 8+ weeks
Julio Arce vs. Andre Ewell - 8+ weeks
Sijara Eubanks vs. Elise Reed - Eubanks 7 weeks, Reed had 2.5 weeks
Diana Belbita vs. Hannah Goldy - 1 week
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Thanks for posting this it helps!
 
Bangkok ready d1 said:
Thats a shit ton of wmma... Well longuer piss breaks im gonna have to drink more
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Last week i faded wmma in a few that actually hurt me a bit.
I have no doubt some of the fighters in wmma would be optimal for fantasy play this week. I dont think you can fade some.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Elkins dec +400

great line
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I could see some Tate/Renau business happening again due to Minner's historically bad tank and propensity to get caught in a sub, but I agree.

Thinking of playing Goldy, Williams and Elkins in straight bets, maybe also a little on Paiva as well.

Anyone else think Soriano will run through Allen? I've always liked Brendan ever since I saw him duke it out with Giles, but the dude is mighty hittable above all else, and Puna has kept surprising me each time out. Oskar did manage to get him down for a little bit before he ate shit, so maybe there could be some worry there, but it's hard for me to think Allen survives the power.
 
Thesnake101 said:
I could see some Tate/Renau business happening again due to Minner's historically bad tank and propensity to get caught in a sub, but I agree.

Thinking of playing Goldy, Williams and Elkins in straight bets, maybe also a little on Paiva as well.

Anyone else think Soriano will run through Allen? I've always liked Brendan ever since I saw him duke it out with Giles, but the dude is mighty hittable above all else, and Puna has kept surprising me each time out. Oskar did manage to get him down for a little bit before he ate shit, so maybe there could be some worry there, but it's hard for me to think Allen survives the power.
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I like Puna early but if he doesn't get Allen out of there in the first I don't trust his gas tank at all on the later rounds, especially if Allen makes him wrestle and grapple a lot.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Elkins dec +400

great line
Click to expand...

I don't see it. Minner has 1 out of 11 losses by decision because he gasses and folds after a rd and a half if things aren't going his way. He did look to be better in his last fight but that was in a fight he was never in any trouble in... in a fight he loses I think he gets finished most of the time.
 
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mkess101 said:
Kind of depends how you rate TJ's wins along with how skeptical you are if he was revved up on EPO and God knows what else the whole time.

Personally I rate his wins as good but not great, and am of the mind he was likely juiced to the gills through it all.

Edit: I've been super impressed with Kyler Phillips, can't remember Paiva's fights though. Kyler juiced, but he's the real deal.
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TJ is one of the only fighters I actively dislike but you just need to watch him fight to see he is technically one of the very best fighters of all time with a high level ring IQ. I would say if he is even close to the fighter he was while champ he has a great change to win against Sandhagen (who if he are going by resumes you can argue lost fairly easily the one time he stepped up in competition). It's impossible to say how he will look after a long lay off and off the juice but I think there are some flaws in Sandhagens game that TJ can exploit. I'm tempted to play a unit on TJ, especially if his line improves.
 
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Thiago Santos has looked awful after having his knee surgeries.
The guy looks a shadow of his former self.
 
Thesnake101 said:
I could see some Tate/Renau business happening again due to Minner's historically bad tank and propensity to get caught in a sub, but I agree.

Thinking of playing Goldy, Williams and Elkins in straight bets, maybe also a little on Paiva as well.

Anyone else think Soriano will run through Allen? I've always liked Brendan ever since I saw him duke it out with Giles, but the dude is mighty hittable above all else, and Puna has kept surprising me each time out. Oskar did manage to get him down for a little bit before he ate shit, so maybe there could be some worry there, but it's hard for me to think Allen survives the power.
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I felt like Roberson should've starched Allen. Honestly I think he had a better shot than Soriano does. I could be wrong about that - I mentioned earlier I'm not a fan of Allen at all but this might be the fight to hop off the Soriano train.
 
Kazda1 said:
I felt like Roberson should've starched Allen. Honestly I think he had a better shot than Soriano does. I could be wrong about that - I mentioned earlier I'm not a fan of Allen at all but this might be the fight to hop off the Soriano train.
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Really, I thought Allen was a surefire win there. Roberson crumbles against pretty much any competent grappler, he even got tapped by Vettori without putting much of a fight.
2020Tracked said:
I like Puna early but if he doesn't get Allen out of there in the first I don't trust his gas tank at all on the later rounds, especially if Allen makes him wrestle and grapple a lot.
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Puna's more of a question mark since he hasn't faced much adversity yet, so he might very well get caught in something nifty as well, lord knows Brendan thrives in scrambles.
 
benebox said:
TJ is one of the only fighters I actively dislike but you just need to watch him fight to see he is technically one of the very best fighters of all time with a high level ring IQ. I would say if he is even close to the fighter he was while champ he has a great change to win against Sandhagen (who if he are going by resumes you can argue lost fairly easily the one time he stepped up in competition). It's impossible to say how he will look after a long lay off and off the juice but I think there are some flaws in Sandhagens game that TJ can exploit. I'm tempted to play a unit on TJ, especially if his line improves.
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I'd agree that once he started training with Bang his footwork improved tremendously. But that still didn't stop him from being blasted by Garbrandt in their first fight and saved by the first round bell, he essentially was lured into a brawl in that one and happened to be the guy who connected in round 2 with enough time to finish. Granted, he made adjustments for the rematch but Cody really went into spaz mode in that one.

Sandhagen isn't a perfect fighter, but he covers his holes well. He's long and diversified offensively. He has a good chin. His TDD isn't great but he's incredibly active off his back and won't just accept bottom position and lose rounds that way. And I would argue that Aljo wasn't really his "only step up in competition". Edgar obviously is past his prime, but was coming off a good performance vs a tough guy in Munhoz. Moraes was two fights removed from being champ, and was coming off a win vs Aldo (controversial to a degree, but a regardless an extremely close fight). Assuncao has been a top 5 ranked guy forever and had a win over TJ (yes back in 2013 when TJ was still at TAM). I agree that overall TJ has faced better competition, but the gap isn't THAT wide, it's not like Corey fought a bunch of bums outside of Sterling.

I also think there's enough examples of guys who have looked far different once they are forced off their "supplements" to say it's VERY possible (maybe even likely) that TJ will be a noticeably diminished fighter without the juice. I'm happy to play Sandhagen -170. Would I play him -250 or -300? Nah. But odds where they are, hell yes.
 
I will absolutely be betting on Elkins via rd 2 and especially rd 3. Minner rd 1 is probably always worth a shot, too, but my pick is Elkins.
 
Soriano was an all american elite college wrestler. His Tdd will be on point. I feel he has all the things checked to beat a guy like Allen. An undefeated fighter with stud wrestling and heavy hands at near even odds is a steal in my book.
 
I hate TJ. But if you measure TJ on his body of work, he's one of the most all-around impressive fighters, P4P, in recent memory. And TJ from 2018/19 would absolutely run through Sandhagen IMO.

Now you gotta factor in the layoff. OK, we've seen guys come back from layoffs successfully (i.e. Cruz). So while it's a red flag it's not a death sentence. Then you have to factor in the fact that TJ is off the EPO. The question I ask myself is, how much did the EPO contribute to TJ's success? He still had all-around impressive skills and displayed good fight IQ.

Then I circle back to this price on TJ this fight. If he was a favorite there's no way I'd touch him. But can I see a scenario where he puts together his all-around skills and savvy and grinds out Sandhagen? Unfortunately yes. This fight should be a pass for me, but little by little I'm inching toward taking a stab on TJ. I'll feel really stupid if he looks like his old self, because the old TJ at these odds would be one of the most preposterous value bets of the decade.
 
Chris Baynham said:
Thiago Santos has looked awful after having his knee surgeries.
The guy looks a shadow of his former self.
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No. He dropped Glover 2-3 times. Glover is just Glover and doesn't die. And then fought a better fighter in Rakic to a 29-28 loss.
 
HighStakesMMA said:
I hate TJ. But if you measure TJ on his body of work, he's one of the most all-around impressive fighters, P4P, in recent memory. And TJ from 2018/19 would absolutely run through Sandhagen IMO.

Now you gotta factor in the layoff. OK, we've seen guys come back from layoffs successfully (i.e. Cruz). So while it's a red flag it's not a death sentence. Then you have to factor in the fact that TJ is off the EPO. The question I ask myself is, how much did the EPO contribute to TJ's success? He still had all-around impressive skills and displayed good fight IQ.

Then I circle back to this price on TJ this fight. If he was a favorite there's no way I'd touch him. But can I see a scenario where he puts together his all-around skills and savvy and grinds out Sandhagen? Unfortunately yes. This fight should be a pass for me, but little by little I'm inching toward taking a stab on TJ. I'll feel really stupid if he looks like his old self, because the old TJ at these odds would be one of the most preposterous value bets of the decade.
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What that TJ did makes you feel he's some kind of all-time stud that at his best runs through Sandhagen?

Or you just mean by your own eye test he looked that good?
 
I'm passing on betting, but the old TJ still likely loses to Sandhagen. Its just a bad stylistic matchup for him unless he can get tds all over the place and/or hold top position. And this coming from someone who doesn't think TJ did roids other than the EPO he got caught for, and wouldn't argue with anyone who thinks hes the GOAT BW up til present day
 
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