UFC Fight Night - Sandhagen vs Dillashaw- Offical discussion

[mkess101]

My only concern with Sandhagen is if Dillashaw gets his back. I didn't like how quickly Sterling got the RNC and TJs best sub is his RNC. We just haven't seen him grapple much lately.

TJ isn't the same level of overall grappler as Aljo. I'd argue not even close, even if TJ's wrestling pedigree is better. I think he only has 2 RNC wins in his entire career and they were his 2nd and 3rd pro fights.

I also think Sandhagen just underrated how slick Aljo is and was too comfortable that he could escape.

 

[Bakayoko]

TJ?

I think it's time we maybe reassess him and how we view him. The first Barao win was impressive of course. Renan had been on a tear. That was the start of "TJ 2.0".

But after that, what exactly has he done that's been so impressive as to have us think he should have been some p4p killer?

He beat Cody twice (was almost KO'd the first fight). Cody who was over emotional and went into idiot brawler mode basically from the start. He lost a close decision to Dom. Beat Joe Soto and John Lineker. Then cut an absurd amount of weight and got blasted by Cejudo. All of this now with some thoughts that maybe he was "enhanced" throughout his run at or near the top of the 135 lb division.

Sorry, but I'm not convinced he wasn't just a good fighter rather than a great one. And that Sandhagen now is better than any version of TJ honestly. Maybe not the one who beat Barao the first time but even that in hindsight...there's questions if Barao was also "enhanced" and then wasn't due to USADA coming into play.

I'm playing Sandhagen with a decent amount of confidence.

You can put it that way,but you can also frame it as his only lose last couple of years other than a close split vs Cruz was Cejudo where he went down a divison.Prime TJ is great to me and would give that version a slight edge over Cory.Don't get me wrong there are better bets and values on the card,primarily Kyler , Daukaus and Allen and TJ might have lost a step,but I see it more of a close 55-45 for Cory then where it came now.

 

[mkess101]

You can put it that way,but you can also frame it as his only lose last couple of years other than a close split vs Cruz was Cejudo where he went down a divison.Prime TJ is great to me and would give that version a slight edge over Cory.Don't get me wrong there are better bets and values on the card,primarily Kyler , Daukaus and Allen and TJ might have lost a step,but I see it more of a close 55-45 for Cory then where it came now.

Kind of depends how you rate TJ's wins along with how skeptical you are if he was revved up on EPO and God knows what else the whole time.

Personally I rate his wins as good but not great, and am of the mind he was likely juiced to the gills through it all.

Edit: I've been super impressed with Kyler Phillips, can't remember Paiva's fights though. Kyler juiced, but he's the real deal.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

This is the best betting card in months

 

[svmr_db]

Shamil Abdurakhimov vs Chris Daukaus postponed until July 31st

 

[theTKDguy]

Already got minner, phillips and Barbarena on a parlay with the u4. 5 islam v moises. Fairly confident it hits. Card is gonna be exciting af, have a feeling cory gets the ko rather quickly, even tho tj is great himself and has got decent grappling to boot. Almost 3 years out the game is no bueno and even tho i think he could potentially take down cory, he doesn't really have great top control iirc and sandhagen is tricky. Imo cory is a level above on the feet and the size/reach advantage is gonna play a factor. Funky footwoork,hard to get in close range.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Already got minner, phillips and Barbarena on a parlay with the u4. 5 islam v moises. Fairly confident it hits. Card is gonna be exciting af, have a feeling cory gets the ko rather quickly, even tho tj is great himself and has got decent grappling to boot. Almost 3 years out the game is no bueno and even tho i think he could potentially take down cory, he doesn't really have great top control iirc and sandhagen is tricky. Imo cory is a level above on the feet and the size/reach advantage is gonna play a factor. Funky footwoork,hard to get in close range.

This is the 2nd guy to come in here talking about how he parlays mad lines. Cmon guys cut that out

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

God, this discussion about Ladd-Chiasson, both fighters I have successfully bet on and against many times, is a trainwreck from both sides.

-Chiasson is a better grappler than given credit for. In the Lansberg fight, she tried to grapple with her, got advantageous positions and won the first round, but gassed hard halfway through the second. She was taken down after being gassed, but continually got up. She's not going to grapple with Ladd, anyways.

-Ladd is a better striker than given credit for. She's steadily improved over her fights, and threw a solid left hook knocking out Kunitskaya on the feet. She improved her straight left (not a true jab) in that same fight, too.

-Chiasson's striking is no joke. She's no GDR, but she is one of the harder, better strikers at 135...for as long as her cardio lasts.

-It's an open question whether Ladd will be better, worse, or the same compared to her last outing against Kunitskaya. I personally have no idea. Tearing one's ACL and MCL is very serious, and could lead to worse movement, striking, and grappling, depending on the severity of the initial injury, how good the surgeon was, the recovery, etc. but it should also be noted that Ladd gets her takedowns from a clinch, not from a shot. (On the flipside, Chiasson is better at defending in the clinch than she is defending a shot). Of course, Ladd could also have improved her skills, especially considering she looked better than ever in her last fight, against Kunitskaya, and is still only 26 years old.

Being reductive and exaggerating is fine for general MMA talk, but it's the enemy of proper analysis and capping.

 

[theTKDguy]

This is the 2nd guy to come in here talking about how he parlays mad lines. Cmon guys cut that out

Idk man, you also said it was nearly impossible that the last ME ended with a finish. Thanks for the advice tho.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

God, this discussion about Ladd-Chiasson, both fighters I have successfully bet on and against many times, is a trainwreck from both sides.

-Chiasson is a better grappler than given credit for. In the Lansberg fight, she tried to grapple with her, got advantageous positions and won the first round, but gassed hard halfway through the second. She was taken down after being gassed, but continually got up. She's not going to grapple with Ladd, anyways.

-Ladd is a better striker than given credit for. She's steadily improved over her fights, and threw a solid left hook knocking out Kunitskaya on the feet. She improved her straight left (not a true jab) in that same fight, too.

-Chiasson's striking is no joke. She's no GDR, but she is one of the harder, better strikers at 135...for as long as her cardio lasts.

-It's an open question whether Ladd will be better, worse, or the same compared to her last outing against Kunitskaya. I personally have no idea. Tearing one's ACL and MCL is very serious, and could lead to worse movement, striking, and grappling, depending on the severity of the initial injury, how good the surgeon was, the recovery, etc. but it should also be noted that Ladd gets her takedowns from a clinch, not from a shot. (On the flipside, Chiasson is better at defending in the clinch than she is defending a shot). Of course, Ladd could also have improved her skills, especially considering she looked better than ever in her last fight, against Kunitskaya, and is still only 26 years old.

Being reductive and exaggerating is fine for general MMA talk, but it's the enemy of proper analysis and capping.

lol @ a trainwreck from both sides only to start off saying the girl who got grappled by Lansberg and almost lost to Reneau the same way is a "better grappler than given credit for". No, shes not. And she'll have no choice to grapple w Ladd when shes garbage being backed up and slower girls grab her easy.

Welcome to the year 2021, where medical science has evolved to the point a pro athlete can tear an ACL and with proper recovery return to form. Ladd could be the same girl and still win easy.

Please don't talk about proper analysis when you can't even recognize how easy it is to grab Chiasson if you don't let her dictate the fight

 

[sonhow]

Don't know how anyone can back Barber over Maverick after this performance lol

She was just trying to stay busy lol. Honestly with the way the judging is who can blame her?

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Idk man, you also said it was nearly impossible that the last ME ended with a finish. Thanks for the advice tho.

lol. Guy, click the link in my sig. Also, do some research about proper betting strategy for long term profit.

You will NEVER profit long term parlaying 4 lines, and ones that are -1xx and even a dog line. I'm trying to help you bud. Be combative if you want, but its just fact betting like that is for the fishes

 

[theTKDguy]

lol. Guy, click the link in my sig. Also, do some research about proper betting strategy for long term profit.

You will NEVER profit long term parlaying 4 lines, and ones that are -1xx and even a dog line. I'm trying to help you bud.

I said thanks tho haha. I know multiple leg parlays are no bueno long term, that's why i only play them for fun (chump change). On principle, I do agree it wasn't the best idea to put a dog line in there, you're right.

Currently, i only go big on one or two lines per event (very confident, mainly over/unders or FDGTD) and play a couple of stupid, small parlays. It's working for me. For example, i wasn't THAT confident islam was gonna finish bjj dude so i didn't want to put big money on it, but still wanted to have some action cause i liked the odds. Had to put it on a 15$ parlay for the lolz.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

lol @ a trainwreck from both sides only to start off saying the girl who got grappled by Lansberg and almost lost to Reneau the same way is a "better grappler than given credit for". No, shes not. And she'll have no choice to grapple w Ladd when shes garbage being backed up and slower girls grab her easy.

We'll see. I'm not disputing that Ladd might very easily take her down, but the analysis has to go beyond something as sloppy and factually inaccurate as "Lansberg dominated her grappling, lol!".

Welcome to the year 2021, where medical science has evolved to the point a pro athlete can tear an ACL and with proper recovery return to form. Ladd could be the same girl and still win easy.

Again, another oversimplification. Treating ACL tears for top athletes has certainly improved by leaps and bounds over the past decade, but she didn't just tear the ACL, it was the MCL, too. We also don't know how severe each tear was. We also don't know who her surgeon was, how good of a job he did for that precise surgery, etc. And there are absolutely athletes, even nowadays, who permanently decline after such an injury, or at least take 2 years to get back to their full form.

One of Ladd's past victims, Tonya Evinger, declined by a lot when she fucked up her ACL.

These are a lot of variables we don't know the exact answers to.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

We'll see. I'm not disputing that Ladd might very easily take her down, but the analysis has to go beyond something as sloppy and factually inaccurate as "Lansberg dominated her grappling, lol!".



Again, another oversimplification. Treating ACL tears for top athletes has certainly improved by leaps and bounds over the past decade, but she didn't just tear the ACL, it was the MCL, too. We also don't know how severe each tear was. We also don't know who her surgeon was, how good of a job he did for that precise surgery, etc. And there are absolutely athletes, even nowadays, who permanently decline after such an injury, or at least take 2 years to get back to their full form.

One of Ladd's past victims, Tonya Evinger, declined by a lot when she fucked up her ACL.

These are a lot of variables we don't know the exact answers to.

OK but she did and there was more to it, you're just being hyperbolic.

This isn't oversimplification this is fact. If in the year 2021 you're thinking to yourself "aCl iNjUrY, wHaT wIlL hApPeN?" then you need to take your brain out of 25 years ago. Why don't you give an example of UFC fighter who did so and returned looking like garbage (tonya evinger lmfao), as to actually make a point instead of calling things oversimplification while talking in hypotheticals? Cause I can't name one, but can use examples to support my claim, including Cub Swanson coming back from one at 36 years old and looking great vs Pineda. Also, if you think some random doctor is doing the surgery instead of someone from the UFC, just lol.

Wrong. We know the EXACT answer to what happens when you try to take Chiasson down. You get the td. We know the EXACT answer to how Chiasson fights when not coming forward and dictating. Shes low level.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Why don't you give an example of UFC fighter who did so and returned looking like garbage (tonya evinger lmfao),

This sentence is so funny and revealing. You demand an example, abruptly admit that I've already provided one, but then dismiss it with "lmfao".

Again, I understand we all have a tendency to exaggerate and massage the truth when trying to win Internet arguments. But that's the enemy of good analysis of capping.

Also, if you think some random doctor is doing the surgery instead of someone from the UFC, just lol.

How do you know this? I've heard of fighters going to UFC-affiliated doctors as well as non-affiliated doctors.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

This sentence is so funny and revealing. You demand an example, abruptly admit that I've already provided one, but then dismiss it with "lmfao".

Again, I understand we all have a tendency to exaggerate and massage the truth when trying to win Internet arguments. But that's the enemy of good analysis of capping.



How do you know this? I've heard of fighters going to UFC-affiliated doctors as well as non-affiliated doctors.

yeah cause your example is stupid. Tonya Evinger was never good. And surprise, you can't provide another one.

I don't need to win internet arguments, I win money. And its proven, unlike you coming to forum to be passive aggressive and act like you're all knowledgeable when your breakdown was complete rubbish.

How do I know this? Cause I follow the sport. The UFC isn't NOT going to recommend a doctor to an American fighter. Extremely funny this is legitimately something you think should be a concern, as if Aspen Ladd and/or UFC is going to let some random dude do the surgery

 

[Siver!]

Minner vs Elkins looks to have some value with Elkins as high as +150 according to bestfightodds.

Minner's not an easy out, he rocked Herbert Burns on DWCS before being outclassed on the ground (Burns locked in a triangle armbar with real ease) - his striking is generally pretty aggressive, so concerns about Elkins bleeding every fight are genuine - if Minner lands, which is pretty likely, we're going to see crimson. Minner, generally regarded as a submission expert, seems to get tapped quite frequently, and did so at the hands of an overweight Grant Dawson - no shame there - but while Elkins has got a couple of submission wins in his last 6 outings, it doesn't seem hugely likely he'll add to Minner's poor record of submission defence.

It's also very unlikely Minner will tap Elkins - Elkins has only been tapped once in his career, and that was 11 years ago against Charles 'Do Bronx'. Elkins has beaten a guillotine-heavy fighter before in the overrated Tiequan Zhang, and Ryan Hall never really got his jits going against Elkins - he largely won with kicks.

Elkins' recent four fight losing streak started against Volkanovski, followed by Lamas, Hall and Landwehr. Lamas is still decent, Hall is an abstract puzzle Elkins wasn't smart enough to solve, while Landwehr was able to take advantage of Elkins' hit-ability. Elkins submitted Eduardo Garragorri and opened a big favourite for that fight, and prior to his losing run he submitted the erratic Michael Johnson. A cause for concern is that Elkins' PTV looks like a decision win, given he's unlikely to submit Minner (he's not as good as Burns or Dawson at this point), but he hasn't outpointed anyone since 2017. That's a long time ago.

Minner most recently out-pointed Charles Rosa, comfortably out-grappling him, but wasn't able to secure a submission - there's every chance Minner can do that to Elkins, especially if he can rock him early, but the chances of a repeat of the Minner win over TJ Laramie are slim-to-none.

I see Elkins driving through Minner, he's the bigger, stronger fighter, slightly weaker in terms of striking, and spending a lot of time looking for takedowns and driving Minner to the fence. Ordinarily, that would play into Minner's guillotines, but I'm thinking Elkins is too seasoned for that. If Minner had a size or strength advantage, I'd pit him as an even bigger favourite; but I'm not sure how he's going to get his offence going. If grabbing a sub is unlikely, if he's not the stronger wrestler, and if he isn't able to consistently (keyword) catch Elkins with some significant strikes in each round, I can only really see him steadily dropping points. You beat Elkins by keeping him on the feet and teeing off on him; you expose his poor striking defence. That doesn't represent a realistic option for the Minner that I've seen.

I'm going for a decision win for Elkins, with the outside bet of 'The Damage' pulling off a submission in R2 or R3 (based solely on how susceptible Minner has been to getting tapped not only by BJJ aces, but anyone with some Jiu Jitsu).

 

[Card]

Short Notice:
- Belbita and Goldy - 1 week
- Elise Reed, in for Cachoeira (2 wins) - 2.5 weeks notice
- Raulian Paiva, in for Assunção (3 losses) - 3 weeks notice

Fight camps:
Cory Sandhagen vs. TJ Dillashaw - 8+ weeks
Aspen Ladd vs. Macy Chiasson - 8+ weeks
Kyler Phillips vs. Raulian Paiva - Phillips 8+ weeks, Paiva had 3 weeks
Darren Elkins vs. Darrick Minner - 8+ weeks
Miranda Maverick vs. Maycee Barber - 8+ weeks
Mickey Gall vs. Jordan Williams - 8+ weeks
Punahele Soriano vs. Brendan Allen - 8 weeks
Nassourdine Imavov vs. Ian Heinisch - 8+ weeks
Adrian Yanez vs. Randy Costa - 8+ weeks
Julio Arce vs. Andre Ewell - 8+ weeks
Sijara Eubanks vs. Elise Reed - Eubanks 7 weeks, Reed had 2.5 weeks
Diana Belbita vs. Hannah Goldy - 1 week

 

[Card]

Goldy got COVID in March (was sick for a month), sounds like she's known that's she going to fight since April. Working with Gillian Robertson.