UFC 228 - Till V Woodley

[Dianabol]

Nicely done and I get the reasons to bet Rivera and Price, just feel like Price's lack of defense is going to get him sparked early and Rivera is a nice matchup for Dodson. Do me a favor and "hedge" your Rivera bet with Dodson NSC (still reasonable at -1xx as Rivera isn't finishing shit). Not sure if you saw Dodson's afro, but he just looks like a guy that is going to come out gunning for the KO.

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I never hedge unless I have a major red flag come up after I place my bet, which is almost never. I pretty much do 90% of my action at Pinnacle and they don't offer anything but ML and totals. My stakes are fairly large too and I doubt I could even get enough money on a NSC prop to cover my ML bet anyway, I don't even play with books that offer it. I actually don't bet anything besides ML

I get what you're saying though, it would be a decent hedge.

I absolutely think Rivera/Dodson goes to the cards but I like Rivera to win based on his 15-1 record on decisions, Dodson is 9-9 on decisions. I also like Rivera's fight IQ and youth over Dodson too, he knows how to edge out rounds. I do see a slight decline is Dodson but he's still high level.

And with Alhassan I do think he's being overestimated, he's beaten no one, his skills don't impress, it's just raw power and athleticism. I'm done doubting Price, it may not always be pretty but he's proven himself against decent comp and he just keeps finding ways to win, also quite well rounded. I believe he should be favored

 

[edole]

No one is concerned that Rivera was flattened by a head kick on June 1st? And might have struggled with the weight cut?

 

[Dianabol]

No one is concerned that Rivera was flattened by a head kick on June 1st? And might have struggled with the weight cut?

He claims he didn't suffer a concussion, I believe that. Kind of a flash knockdown, it's not like he took a beating. I know he weighed in late but I don't think he looked that bad on the scale.

I bet Marlon against Rivera, I do think Rivera was being a tad overrated heading into that match but now I think he's being slightly underestimated now, the guy was on a 20 fight win streak prior to the Marlon loss. Rivera is a very good fighter, he's fairly consistent, much younger and still improving. I think he's easy to trust than Dodson. But Dodson does know how to make a lot of fights close. Rivera is a great point fighter though and he's got the record to prove it.

 

[Sadistics]

I never hedge unless I have a major red flag come up after I place my bet, which is almost never. I pretty much do 90% of my action at Pinnacle and they don't offer anything but ML and totals. My stakes are fairly large too and I doubt I could even get enough money on a NSC prop to cover my ML bet anyway, I don't even play with books that offer it. I actually don't bet anything besides ML

I get what you're saying though, it would be a decent hedge.

I absolutely think Rivera/Dodson goes to the cards but I like Rivera to win based on his 15-1 record on decisions, Dodson is 9-9 on decisions. I also like Rivera's fight IQ and youth over Dodson too, he knows how to edge out rounds. I do see a slight decline is Dodson but he's still high level.

And with Alhassan I do think he's being overestimated, he's beaten no one, his skills don't impress, it's just raw power and athleticism. I'm done doubting Price, it may not always be pretty but he's proven himself against decent comp and he just keeps finding ways to win, also quite well rounded. I believe he should be favored

He is 9-9 when fights go to decision, but since joining the UFC in 2011, his only decision losses are to Moraes (split), Lineker (split), and DJ x2.

I often agree with your plays, but I'm curious if you watch extensive tape as a lot of your arguments are wiki capped stats.

 

[null]

UFC 228 ceremonial weigh-in live now:

 

[PuertoRican]

Win or lose, Craig White is gonna get cut from the UFC for kissing Diego on the nose just now.

 

[Dianabol]

He is 9-9 when fights go to decision, but since joining the UFC in 2011, his only decision losses are to Moraes (split), Lineker (split), and DJ x2.

I often agree with your plays, but I'm curious if you watch extensive tape as a lot of your arguments are wiki capped stats.

I always watch tape but I feel like that is doing the bare minimum, everyone does it, sometimes tape can be misleading, things change fast in the fight game. I like to look at all angels.

I know a lot of people aren't a fan of using stats but stats are facts, but sure I take a lot of stats with a grain of salt. Variables/intangibles are what I value most, I believe that is where I find my edges.

I know Dodson has only lost to high level fighters in the UFC but losing decisions has been an issue is whole career. A lot of the time he does just enough to lose, could have lost the Pedro fight too TBH.

Rivera is great at securing and edging out rounds. He's a smart fighter. I really like how he handled the Almedia fight, he was aware it was even heading into the last round and he switched it up and used his wrestling to secure the win, smart adjustment

It wouldn't shock me if this fight was close but I do trust Rivera more than Dodson and I know Rivera is a masterful point fighter. Not hating on Dodson at all but I just think Rivera is the right side in this fight, higher output, higher win percentage, younger, 100% TDD, 15-1 on decisions and I'd be very surprised to see a finish on either side. Haven't seen Dodson look nearly as dangerous at 135 as he was at 125, still very fast though.

 

[Dianabol]

Hardest fight on the card for me to call by far is Pudilova vs Aldana, I expect nothing but a split decision

Been going to back and fourth on it all week, I just have no clue

 

[PuertoRican]

Hardest fight on the card for me to call by far is Pudilova vs Aldana, I expect nothing but a split decision

Been going to back and fourth on it all week, I just have no clue

I like Pudilova in this fight, as I think she'll show more skills in the cage. That being said, this fight is in Texas, where Mexicans are known to be favored when a fight goes to a decision.

As for Diego, he is popular in Texas. He used to do promotional stuff there a few years back, and his style suits the Texas crowd. If his fight is close at all, I think he'll get the nod.

 

[mkess101]

I always watch tape but I feel like that is doing the bare minimum, everyone does it, sometimes tape can be misleading, things change fast in the fight game. I like to look at all angels.

I know a lot of people aren't a fan of using stats but stats are facts, but sure I take a lot of stats with a grain of salt. Variables/intangibles are what I value most, I believe that is where I find my edges.

I know Dodson has only lost to high level fighters in the UFC but losing decisions has been an issue is whole career. A lot of the time he does just enough to lose, could have lost the Pedro fight too TBH.

Rivera is great at securing and edging out rounds. He's a smart fighter. I really like how he handled the Almedia fight, he was aware it was even heading into the last round and he switched it up and used his wrestling to secure the win, smart adjustment

It wouldn't shock me if this fight was close but I do trust Rivera more than Dodson and I know Rivera is a masterful point fighter. Not hating on Dodson at all but I just think Rivera is the right side in this fight, higher output, higher win percentage, younger, 100% TDD, 15-1 on decisions and I'd be very surprised to see a finish on either side. Haven't seen Dodson look nearly as dangerous at 135 as he was at 125, still very fast though.

Some good points BUT level of competition is a BIG factor in how "smart" and "masterful" guys can look. Jimmy's best dec win (given how much Faber was past his prime) is probably Munhoz. Dodson has faced WAY better overall competition. Now don't get me wrong, he's maddening in how he can clown around and have stretches of inactivity. But he arguably should have gotten the nod vs Linekar. He was as competitive as anyone prior to Cejudo vs MM. He's shown a granite chin throughout his career too.

He could def flake this one away, no question but I still gotta play him small at dog odds given the recent KO of Jimmie.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Hardest fight on the card for me to call by far is Pudilova vs Aldana, I expect nothing but a split decision

Been going to back and fourth on it all week, I just have no clue

I sprinkled Pudilova at +odds bc she is 6 years younger and their resumes are very close to even

 

[Dianabol]

I like Pudilova in this fight, as I think she'll show more skills in the cage. That being said, this fight is in Texas, where Mexicans are known to be favored when a fight goes to a decision.

As for Diego, he is popular in Texas. He used to do promotional stuff there a few years back, and his style suits the Texas crowd. If his fight is close at all, I think he'll get the nod.

I certainly think Pudilova has higher career potential and I think she's already a solid fighter. But both her and Aldana are involved in a lot of close fights. I just see a very competitive striking match and I think the judges are gonna be splitting hairs. I can't even pick a winner in this fight, all I can pick is a split decision. One day I'm leaning one way then the next I'm leaning the other. Prior to tape I was Aldana, after tape I was Pudilova but now I just don't know. F it, I guess I'll pick Pudilova, I like how game she, she's nasty in there.

 

[Dianabol]

I sprinkled Pudilova at +odds bc she is 6 years younger and their resumes are very close to even

Yeah being the younger fighter is a statistical advantage. Pudilova is also more likely to make the bigger improvements since she's young in he game.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Being younger is meaningless by itself if the 'older' person is only 30, and they both have the same amount of fights. Unless you have strong evidence Aldana has had significantly more wear and tear in those fights, being 30 shouldn't put her at a disadvantage at all.

 

[matthew55]

call me crazy, but I think we could see a couple finishes in the women's fights, if not all. Aldana/ Pudilova will in all likelyhood be a standing match and they both have some pop and I could see it turning into a brawl..I feel a little more confident that Suarez submits or pounds out Esparza at some point..and I believe Andrade can eventually get Karolina down and either submit or pummel her from there..I know ppl are saying its not the greatest matchup for Suarez but I think she's a relentless beast who is only getting better and will be fighting for the belt soon, so I have the most confidence she gets it done.

 

[mkess101]

call me crazy, but I think we could see a couple finishes in the women's fights, if not all. Aldana/ Pudilova will in all likelyhood be a standing match and they both have some pop and I could see it turning into a brawl..I feel a little more confident that Suarez submits or pounds out Esparza at some point..and I believe Andrade can eventually get Karolina down and either submit or pummel her from there..I know ppl are saying its not the greatest matchup for Suarez but I think she's a relentless beast who is only getting better and will be fighting for the belt soon, so I have the most confidence she gets it done.

Not to mention Tatiana looks gigantic next to Carla. Even if you believe Carla has the skills to hang (I don't), the sheer size difference should be enough to let Suarez dominate the grappling.

 

[Dianabol]

Some good points BUT level of competition is a BIG factor in how "smart" and "masterful" guys can look. Jimmy's best dec win (given how much Faber was past his prime) is probably Munhoz. Dodson has faced WAY better overall competition. Now don't get me wrong, he's maddening in how he can clown around and have stretches of inactivity. But he arguably should have gotten the nod vs Linekar. He was as competitive as anyone prior to Cejudo vs MM. He's shown a granite chin throughout his career too.

He could def flake this one away, no question but I still gotta play him small at dog odds given the recent KO of Jimmie.

Yeah I can understand that, if Dodson wins I'm almost sure it'll be a split

Dodson does a great job of making rounds close and hard to define a winner

Dodson no doubt a top 10 BW but he is slowing down a tad and he's power hasn't translated to BW it seems, I think he should try and return to flyweight if he loses to Rivera, he has good reason to do so.

 

[Dianabol]

Montano should be stripped

She held up the division for months with her injury problems and now she pulled out of a fight she knew she was going to lose. I don't know how much of that is cowardice TBH

Valentina is the uncrowned champ, she's been ready to fight for the title for a long time and now she's been robbed of that opportunity. Just strip Montano and let Valentina and someone else fight for the vacant belt in the next couple months.

Montano was always a paper champ and everyone knew it. She did win the belt on December 1st last year, not that long ago but IDC, she should be stripped

Probably won't happen though

 

[ill800]

they should give shevy the belt

She mentally beat her

 

[lefontes]

Aldana is going boxing clinic on Pudilova. 15 minutes Pudilova eating jabs. Pudilova dont have tdd and this fight will be stand. Irene is going to win this easy. $$$$