UFC 258: Usman vs Burns

theTKDguy said:
I think it's gonna be primarily a striking match and i like burns chances there. Played him straight and have vieira on a parlay, think he rolls easily.

indeed. It's more less his only ptv. Will put a couple coins once lines are available.
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Why are you betting an underdog with a -400 favorite? You can just add 25 pct to your bet and not even sweat the Viera fight at all.
 
TrueAscension said:
Why are you betting an underdog with a -400 favorite? You can just add 25 pct to your bet and not even sweat the Viera fight at all.
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i have burns straight, and also have vieira on a parlay (with sean brady).
 
Strictly a feel play. I think Burns finishes Usman. Usman's whole game is shutting down the fight with grappling. If Burns comes in hot and can disengage those grappling positions I think he can make Usman very uncomfortable and find an early finish. I love the r1 and r2 finish props for Burns.
 
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LEMONZEST said:
Strictly a feel play. I think Burns finishes Usman. Usmams whole game is shutting down the fight with grappling. If Burns comes in hot and can disengage those grappling positions I think he can make Usman very uncomfortable and find an early finish. I love the r1 and r2 finish props for Burns.
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That’s a big question if Durinho can disengage from Martys grappling, Gunnar Nelson easily controlled Burns against the cage for extended periods in their fight, granted this was Durinhos second UFC fight in WW and two years ago. Giblert did way better during clinch-situation in the open during that fight, even hurt Nelson a few times ircc.

But I def see value in the above plays, or Burns KO +800.
 
I know I'm the guy that just bet like 5 grand on Michael Johnson last week.. but does anyone really see Heinisch making this remotely close. Think gastelum is a bargain at -210 (I already bet him) and most likely Gastelum by KO prop. Think I'm gona load up and use him as a parlay piece. Might be the lock of the card for me.
Also not scared to hammer away on Ricky Simon. And I got on Gabe Green at -110. Not chasing him at -130 but I'm tempted. I think Green is still great value. Also like the under 2.5 at even money. I'm thinking Green breaks down Rowe. Might get him w a barrage or even a head kick on the taller fighter. Fuck it. But let's just say Rowe does win. It will be by KO. I like Green and the under
 
WolfgangKennelz said:
I know I'm the guy that just bet like 5 grand on Michael Johnson last week.. but does anyone really see Heinisch making this remotely close. Think gastelum is a bargain at -210 (I already bet him) and most likely Gastelum by KO prop. Think I'm gona load up and use him as a parlay piece. Might be the lock of the card for me.
Also not scared to hammer away on Ricky Simon. And I got on Gabe Green at -110. Not chasing him at -130 but I'm tempted. I think Green is still great value. Also like the under 2.5 at even money. I'm thinking Green breaks down Rowe. Might get him w a barrage or even a head kick on the taller fighter. Fuck it. But let's just say Rowe does win. It will be by KO. I like Green and the under
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I've mentioned in other threads I think Heinisch has some intangibles on his side like motivation & drive, he moved to Thailand a while back to level up on his game. Gastelum by comparison can barely be bothered to show up in shape. Not saying Gastelum will lose or anything necessary but I think Heinisch at the current odds is a good bet.

Gastelum by KO, really doubt it. Heinisch seems to have a pretty good chin, never been KO'd yet in his career. And size wise he is a lot bigger than Gastelum and I think he'll be able to take whatever shots Gastelum gives him.
 
WolfgangKennelz said:
I know I'm the guy that just bet like 5 grand on Michael Johnson last week.. but does anyone really see Heinisch making this remotely close. Think gastelum is a bargain at -210 (I already bet him) and most likely Gastelum by KO prop. Think I'm gona load up and use him as a parlay piece. Might be the lock of the card for me.
Also not scared to hammer away on Ricky Simon. And I got on Gabe Green at -110. Not chasing him at -130 but I'm tempted. I think Green is still great value. Also like the under 2.5 at even money. I'm thinking Green breaks down Rowe. Might get him w a barrage or even a head kick on the taller fighter. Fuck it. But let's just say Rowe does win. It will be by KO. I like Green and the under
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I think youre paying some really bad prices, again
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
I think youre paying some really bad prices, again
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On who ? Gastelum, Simon, and Green?

I've been on the correct side like Kellehers last 5 fights. Betting with and against him has made me serious money. Think Simon just clinically defeats him rather easy, gets thru half guillotines and controls him at least 2/3 of the fight. Green I'm 90% sure will win. Just haven't seen Rowe fight in almost 2 years and can be improved. But I wouldn't be betting ON him. Think I got Green at a steal -110 ... and Gastelum I can't see being a bad price. Gastelum always the smaller fighter. Nothing new. Just think he's a level above Heinisch. Heinisch got in the game late, been playing catch up and been getting by with determination and willpower also physical strength. Gastelum been doing this against the elite for over5 years now and he's still only 29. Losing by quick sub to Hermansson and getting outstruck by Till isn't terrible. Think he hurts Heinrich here
 
WolfgangKennelz said:
On who ? Gastelum, Simon, and Green?

I've been on the correct side like Kellehers last 5 fights. Betting with and against him has made me serious money. Think Simon just clinically defeats him rather easy, gets thru half guillotines and controls him at least 2/3 of the fight. Green I'm 90% sure will win. Just haven't seen Rowe fight in almost 2 years and can be improved. But I wouldn't be betting ON him. Think I got Green at a steal -110 ... and Gastelum I can't see being a bad price. Gastelum always the smaller fighter. Nothing new. Just think he's a level above Heinisch. Heinisch got in the game late, been playing catch up and been getting by with determination and willpower also physical strength. Gastelum been doing this against the elite for over5 years now and he's still only 29. Losing by quick sub to Hermansson and getting outstruck by Till isn't terrible. Think he hurts Heinrich here
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Simon and gas

I just don’t see much value left at current odds. When you start getting into 80% territory you probably don’t want to be betting guys who get tapped by heel hooks.

Same principle as Michael Johnson last week. Yea he should beat guida. But will he do it 8 out of 10 times?

I see multiple paths to victory for both heinisch and kelleher. Not a great spot to lay that juice if you ask me, especially not a high volume play

you think guys with long term success like sadistics are betting Simon at -250? Or gastelum at -230?

I don’t like talking people out of their leans, especially if you’ve done the research, but I would advise you not to go anything above 2 units on each
 
guidi said:
Anyone got a good read of Pitolo vs Marquez? I'm slightly on Marquez he is coming off a long layoff but Pitolo has just not looked good in his UFC run, he got out pointed by Impa very easily last time out and just doesn't seem UFC level.
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I actually think Marquez wins by submission here...
 
danareem said:
That’s a big question if Durinho can disengage from Martys grappling, Gunnar Nelson easily controlled Burns against the cage for extended periods in their fight, granted this was Durinhos second UFC fight in WW and two years ago. Giblert did way better during clinch-situation in the open during that fight, even hurt Nelson a few times ircc.

But I def see value in the above plays, or Burns KO +800.
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Burns also took that fight on 10 days notice. That info that gets circulated is bad info IMO and can sway someone to lean a certain way. It's almost like MMA math it shouldnt have that much of a factor.

Id be more concerned with Woodley controlling the clinch vs Burns.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Simon and gas

I just don’t see much value left at current odds. When you start getting into 80% territory you probably don’t want to be betting guys who get tapped by heel hooks.

Same principle as Michael Johnson last week. Yea he should beat guida. But will he do it 8 out of 10 times?

I see multiple paths to victory for both heinisch and kelleher. Not a great spot to lay that juice if you ask me, especially not a high volume play

you think guys with long term success like sadistics are betting Simon at -250? Or gastelum at -230?

I don’t like talking people out of their leans, especially if you’ve done the research, but I would advise you not to go anything above 2 units on each
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I understand what you're saying. I think Simon is a little wide but for good reason. But I think that -210 (not -230) on gastelum is a very nice line. Heinisch had to scrap for that win against Carlos junior... wasn't an easy fight junior gassed too. Gastelum has gone 5 ridiculously hard rounds before. I honestly would play gastelum up to 3 to 1 , and think the -210 I'm getting is a gift. Heinisch I'd expect to be much improved since those carlos junior and cezar Ferreira fights, but I wouldn't expect the 32 year old to really close the gap on a 29 year old fighter. Gastelum had solid amount of time off. Took no real damage in a long time. I think the multiple paths to victory for Heinisch a lot of people see are moreso mirages.. respectfully of course. Losing 3 fights in a row to top 5 guys one being ufc champion in a fight he got 2 of the 5 rounds ... I don't mind laying juice wen I think it's a lock. I also fire bullets. Never been scared. It's how I bet. I'm up almost $11,000 in 2021 even after that MJ debacle last week. I trust the process. Just think gastelum is borderline undervalued here
 
2020Tracked said:
Why is Kelvin Gastelum getting so much love this week when you can get much more proven and consistent fighters in Ricky Simon and Usman for the same price
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Ricky Simon can get Kod and Baldy can crack. I feel safer with Kelvin than I do Simon but thats just me.
 
Well Theres a big difference between -210 and the -260 range for Simon and Gastelum. Simon is proven, but kelleher has also proven he can grab victories as the lesser fighter. I'm still in on Simon. Love him here. But gastelum I got bigger... sadly I'm gona be very occupied Saturday with many boxing cards. And boxing is my bread and butter. Got a couple really nice leans already
 
2020Tracked said:
Why is Kelvin Gastelum getting so much love this week when you can get much more proven and consistent fighters in Ricky Simon and Usman for the same price
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Yeah kelvin is gonna disappoint again. He is still the same guy that was soundly beaten by Neil Magny imo. One good performance vs Adesanya doesn't negate all the shitty performances.
 
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