UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev, Sat, Oct 22

Brady

Aljo

Makh (I love Charles and have backed his last three fights but he loses this)

Parlay and I keep loading and loading up on it....
 
King-Ryan said:
Don't sleep on Belal. Other two I am on as well.
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What do you think Belal offers Brady that Chiesa didn't? That's the issue I'm having convincing myself to be interested in Belal.
 
King-Ryan said:
Don't sleep on Belal. Other two I am on as well.
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Personally I think he's extremely lucky with some of his recent wins where opponents have been underperforming. I just don't think he's that good and cannot see how he wins against Brady here. I expect Brady to win by SUB...
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Better wrestling, better cardio, better striking

I think remember I’m boring is constantly underrated.
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Can you think of any fights where he's had to deal with back takes? Brady (and all the Renzo Philly guys really) is good at taking and holding the back, I think my concern is Belal gets stuck there.
 
Brady's grappling is EXTREMELY high level. I realize MMA grappling is different, but Brady beating Craig Jones should have opened a lot of eyes at how good he is on the mat. Ans yes, no leglocks allowed likely made the difference with Jones being an elite leglock guy, but we're still talking about Brady upsetting one of the better grapplers on the planet.

I am very confident that Brady wins rds 1 and 2. Now round 3...not so much. But I don't think Belal is the guy to find a round 3 finish so Brady decision (possibly sub but I lean decision) seems likely.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Can you think of any fights where he's had to deal with back takes? Brady (and all the Renzo Philly guys really) is good at taking and holding the back, I think my concern is Belal gets stuck there.
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not sure. Did maia get there for a round?
mkess101 said:
Brady's grappling is EXTREMELY high level. I realize MMA grappling is different, but Brady beating Craig Jones should have opened a lot of eyes at how good he is on the mat. Ans yes, no leglocks allowed likely made the difference with Jones being an elite leglock guy, but we're still talking about Brady upsetting one of the better grapplers on the planet.

I am very confident that Brady wins rds 1 and 2. Now round 3...not so much. But I don't think Belal is the guy to find a round 3 finish so Brady decision (possibly sub but I lean decision) seems likely.
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Brady just took him down and laid on him. It really wasn’t much of a match. I had bet Brady there.

belals only ptv is a decision while I could see Brady getting a sub or Dec. belal has good takedowns and chain wrestling. He was putting Thompson down line it was nothing. I have to look at how heavy his top is game is though. From memory it’s not my favorite and Brady seems strong and may be able to sweep

Brady is a good grappler and i think his jiu jitsu is solid. I would’ve bet him at his opener but I don’t know if I like him as a favorite. I’ve been guilty of underestimating belal and losing money. Not sure how I feel about this one. Don’t know how much value there is at current prices
 
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Mcgregorian said:
Personally I think he's extremely lucky with some of his recent wins where opponents have been underperforming. I just don't think he's that good and cannot see how he wins against Brady here. I expect Brady to win by SUB...
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I just feel like Belal gets underated alot for some reason. It's a close fight forsure I just give slight edges to Belal in every area so I personally wouldn't lay juice on either side. Since I lean Balal and he is plus money ill probably take a stab.
 
King-Ryan said:
I just feel like Belal gets underated alot for some reason. It's a close fight forsure I just give slight edges to Belal in every area so I personally wouldn't lay juice on either side. Since I lean Balal and he is plus money ill probably take a stab.
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Cause he’s a boring fighter.
 
King-Ryan said:
I just feel like Belal gets underated alot for some reason. It's a close fight forsure I just give slight edges to Belal in every area so I personally wouldn't lay juice on either side. Since I lean Balal and he is plus money ill probably take a stab.
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I think he's good but if you look at his recent wins then you've got 43? at the time year old Maia who's lost his ability to be able to take anyone down, Wonderboy in a small cage which is a big restriction for a movement based fighter and the win over Luque which while good, I feel was slightly cheapened after watching what Geoff Neal did to Luque.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
not sure. Did maia get there for a round?

Brady just took him down and laid on him. It really wasn’t much of a match. I had bet Brady there.

belals only ptv is a decision while I could see Brady getting a sub or Dec. belal has good takedowns and chain wrestling. He was putting Thompson down line it was nothing. I have to look at how heavy his top is game is though. From memory it’s not my favorite and Brady seems strong and may be able to sweep

Brady is a good grappler and i think his jiu jitsu is solid. I would’ve bet him at his opener but I don’t know if I like him as a favorite. I’ve been guilty of underestimating belal and losing money. Not sure how I feel about this one. Don’t know how much value there is at current prices
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It's not easy at all to lay on top of an elite grappler though. You gotta have crushing top control and a great feel for the slight weight shifts that top tier guys make with their hips.

I just don't see Belal outgrappling Brady anytime during the first 10 minutes. And I have a hard time believing that Brady doesn't know that Belal is the better striker so Brady is extremely likely to force the grappling (hell, if he did it vs Chiesa he's doing it here).
 
mkess101 said:
It's not easy at all to lay on top of an elite grappler though. You gotta have crushing top control and a great feel for the slight weight shifts that top tier guys make with their hips.

I just don't see Belal outgrappling Brady anytime during the first 10 minutes. And I have a hard time believing that Brady doesn't know that Belal is the better striker so Brady is extremely likely to force the grappling (hell, if he did it vs Chiesa he's doing it here).
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Brady played it super safe. he may have attempted to pass once or twice. For the most part he just used his wrestling and strength.

There wasn’t a lot of bjj at play there from what I remember

I hate belal and I hope Brady wins but who’s to say that he can take down belal and avoid being taken down himself? Belal has the experience and has fought and beaten high level guys.

Brady was getting tagged by chiesa standing. Belal has a high fight iq and knows how to win rounds. He’s going to expect a grapple heavy gameplan from Brady.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Brady played it super safe. he may have attempted to pass once or twice. For the most part he just used his wrestling and strength.

There wasn’t a lot of bjj at play there from what I remember

I hate belal and I hope Brady wins but who’s to say that he can take down belal and avoid being taken down himself? Belal has the experience and has fought and beaten high level guys.

Brady was getting tagged by chiesa standing. Belal has a high fight iq and knows how to win rounds. He’s going to expect a grapple heavy gameplan from Brady.
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I mean yeah, it was kinda like Couture/Jacare grappling match from way back. But even just holding an elite guy down isn't easy, you gotta be super sound in your top control. It's why elite bjj players will even pull guard vs good wrestlers. They are confident they'll find a sweep or opportunity to set up a sub.

Brady's striking isn't good. Belal has the advantage standing. But I think Brady's grappling is just better, including his TD game. I think he gets Belal down and keeps him on his back in rds 1 and 2. Brady likely slows after that and could easily drop rd 3.
 
I don't think Olives has the power to spark Islam out super quickly. Grappling exchanges will happen in this fight. It's possible Olives wins a war of attrition but most likely Islam gets him down and gets a submission
 
Charlies been subbed with flash subs but hes beaten every grinder hes faced so far in his career. Except Frankie but that was long ago before he knew how to strike. Meanwhile Islam/ Khabib duo havent faced a guy like Charlie Olives.
Dunno who wins but its all just super exciting to me. Seems like something has to give.
 
sonhow said:
Charlies been subbed with flash subs but hes beaten every grinder hes faced so far in his career. Except Frankie but that was long ago before he knew how to strike. Meanwhile Islam/ Khabib duo havent faced a guy like Charlie Olives.
Dunno who wins but its all just super exciting to me. Seems like something has to give.
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Pettis subbed him after a lot of back and forth on the mat. But honestly, that was a different version of Oliveira. It's really hard to take much away from old fights where he was cutting an absolutely absurd amount of weight. He's just a different guy now.

But Islam is one of those generational grapplers. Watching him on the mat, you see how special he is. I just don't think Charles will be able to deal with it.
 
mkess101 said:
Pettis subbed him after a lot of back and forth on the mat. But honestly, that was a different version of Oliveira. It's really hard to take much away from old fights where he was cutting an absolutely absurd amount of weight. He's just a different guy now.

But Islam is one of those generational grapplers. Watching him on the mat, you see how special he is. I just don't think Charles will be able to deal with it.
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Pettis one was definitely a flash sub and just absurdly long time ago. Oliviera is one of the prime examples how much fighter can change in few years.
Once again this all pre fight betting stuff comes down to how good we all think a fighter is. My head wants to agree with you though Im very much rooting for Charles in this one if no money on the line hehe.
 
sonhow said:
Pettis one was definitely a flash sub and just absurdly long time ago. Oliviera is one of the prime examples how much fighter can change in few years.
Once again this all pre fight betting stuff comes down to how good we all think a fighter is. My head wants to agree with you though Im very much rooting for Charles in this one if no money on the line hehe.
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Pettis was a flash sub? I swear it was later in the fight and there had been a whole bunch of back and forth grappling?
 
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