This card is very frustrating, since there a lot of fights determined by factors we're not privy to. Specifically, all 3 female bouts;
Loma Lookboonme vs. Jin Yuh Frey:
We know what Frey is capable of. Loma, however, is an unknown quantity. She showed a lot of improvement in every faucet of the game against Albu and then even more against Hill. That last fight wasn't bad either; after Hill clearly won round 1, round 2 and round 3 were each very close and a case could easily be made for Loma winnning either one. I had it 29-28 Hill, but either 30-27 hill or 29-28 Loma were reasonable scorecards, too.
Loma looks visibly bigger and stronger, is adaptating more to MMA, has developed her boxing, etc.
Frey at small plus odds isn't at all appealing. The idea that she is going to out-grapple Loma is a pipe dream, as her wrestling is poor and she looks especially weak in the clinch. Maybe Frey wins a razor-thin decision, but under no circumstances do I think it's a clear, decisive victory. That might be good value at +200, but not at +130.
At the same time, Loma, if she DOESN'T improve since the Hill fight, won't win convincingly either, and that's no fun at any minus odds. So it's a fight hinging on how much Loma has improved, if at all.
GDR-Pena
We know roughly where GDR is as a fighter. Pena, however, is a complete mystery. If this was the same Pena that beat Zingano and was taking down Valentina Shevchenko in their fight, she would be great value at her plus numbers.
But is it? She was far less muscular and her grappling looked much weaker against Montano. However, that was 15 months ago, on short notice, and she was quasi-retired.
If she regains her form (let alone added a few skills), which is very possible given that she is only 31, there is value on her. If it's the same Pena from the Montano fight, however, there is probably value on GDR at small minus numbers.
Props to the people who got GDR at plus numbers, as that's likely value either way, but again, we don't know.
Holm-Aldana
Holm is nearly 39. Her striking is slower, she throws less, and her cardio isn't as impressive as it used to be. I don't think highly of Aldana at all, but if you're not willing to stand and trade with Pennington, and look worse when you do, the same will be true with Aldana.
Holm from a few years ago at -120 or so would have elicited a 5u bet against this version of Aldana? Now? It's unclear. Again, just depends how much of a drop-off there is with Holm.
At the same time, what has Aldana done to play her at tiny plus numbers? She looked very even striking with Bethe Correia of all people, lost a close fight due to bad decision-making against Pennington, and was then looking even striking with Ketlen Vieira of all people (who was even worse then than she was against Eubanks recently) until hitting her with the best punch of her life.
