UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai

FimbulFightPicks said:
If you´re a winner and you earn money from this you´ll overcome these limits and find a way. You´d have to have some serious reasons, or a lot of cash if its not worth it unless you´re a square. I didn´t know much about EZ but I remember he had won for many years from what he said, and then in the year he stopped on SD, he had lost a lot, and I think he said something about it fit that he didn´t have the desire that much anymore or something like that, maybe his posts are still here.

But if someone gets limited they sure will wind a way. Unless you only bet pennies and small bets and don´t win a lot, then you´ll definitely find a way. With sites like Bookmaker, the exchange, pinnacle, the many different bookies you could bet small on even if limited, you can still put down some serious cash, thousands of dollars. I dont think it´d be too hard to at least bet $10000 on each ML bet unless you live somewhere where betting is hard to do due to lack of bookies etc.
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You don’t think it’s hard to get $10K down offshore from the US?
 
Hard card to bet,initially I liked Baeza but after contemplating it would be dumb to write off Ponzi judged by only one fight,need to see more if he's regressed.Really think Amirkhani and Salikhov will win,but don't know how much value the lines have.
 
Ryan Kelly said:
You don’t think it’s hard to get $10K down offshore from the US?
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Hard perhaps, but its do able, you´ll find a way. I dont live in the US, and I´d find a way to put 10k down on a bet if thats it. The exchange alone sometimes has around 15k free, bookmaker. eu is a great place too, BOL, and a lot of small books.

Betting already is hard. If you got an edge and are a winner and you can make a lot of money, you´ll definitely find a way.
 
Some quick thoughts

- No way Breese loses to the man that looked laughably terrible vs Deron Winn right?

- I like Baeza here. I know we've only seen Ponzi back for 1 fight, but man, he went through some shit, and I was never sold on his chin. On his win streak between his KO losses (Larkin - Li, 7 fights) the only real KO threat was... Mike Perry? His other opponents were Magny, Gunnar Nelson, Nordine Taleb, Zak Cummings, Court McGee, and Andraes Stahl... Give me Baeza via KO

- Latifi at dog odds looks attractive to me, survived and almost got the decision win vs Black Beast.

- Gotta think Fiorot is gonna destroy this can they've brought in on short notice. None of her 5 opponents have had a winning or even an even record. Combined 4-19 I believe it was. Fiorot inside the distance, maybe round 1 if the odds are juicy enough.

- With a couple of robbery wins, I'd love to see Sakai lose a couple fights to even that record out. Overeem was a nice one. Unfortunately, I think Rozenstruik is KO or bust, like usual, and I think Sakai's best trait his is durability. Staying away from the main event.

- Think Dolidze will be "too big" for Starapoli. Sure he was a big welterweight, but Dolidze is a big middleweight.

- Lipski loses via wrestlefucking

- Kirk is another interesting underdog play. Think his jits is good enough to stay out of danger vs Makwan. Makwan also has nothing if he can't get a TD and keeps shooting and eventually tires out.

- Will Tybura be able to take some shots and get some takedowns, as per usual? Or will Walt Harris be able to catch him with something heavy?
 
Manon Fiorots new opponent Tabatha Ricci is a tougher fight, in my view, than her original opponent.

Ricci has mostly fought cans and this fight will be contested at flyweight despite her being a small straw-weight. Her striking defense leaves her open which could be a problem considering Fiorots record of TKO/KOs.

However, there is a lot to like, she is a BJJ & Judo black-belt that has noticeable power and can take a shot. I predict she may have trouble submitting Fiorot due to her length, but she definitely has the technique and power to get a TKO via ground and pound. Her cardio is also good so she could win a decision over Fiorot if she takes. her down multiple times.

I still would pick Fiorot to win, but anyone considering a wager on this bout should bet Ricci or pass because -500 is absolutely not warranted.
 
OuterDrake said:
Odds are in his favor, 67% favorites win. You'd rather bet on one 300+ dog or four favorable fighters with an edge? Believe it or not , spamming huge favorites with high wins consistency is a smart strategy.

imagine all the years of money you could have won on

Jones,Valentina,Nunes,Adesanya ,Usman, on all the mismatched fights they had. Parlaying these champions together and using the winnings to bet in their next bout for the last ten years, you could have made half a million dollars at least.
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That's not at all how that works. 67% of favorite ls win but you didn't account for odds, and that's .67*.67*.67*.67 to determine the odds of the 4 leg parlay hitting if you assume each fighter has a 67% chance, which comes out to about 20%. There's a reason we use the phrase "dog or pass" in mma cuz it's such a high variance sport, there is not value in taking these bets.
 
OuterDrake said:
Dont agree with boser but brease is not losing that one. My point wasn’t about the picks themselves, but this mindset going around that betting on anything -200 makes it a bad stradegy.
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Betting on -200 is fine. Just don't parlay it and put your eggs all in that basket. Be much better served betting them all as singles.
 
OuterDrake said:
He can think it all he wants , he like you never post any of your winnings like i have. Until you make 4400$ in one night , then you can talk. The whole point is to pick winners, not just odds. A win is a win, rather it brings only a small value or a big one, betting 4 sizable favorites beats a big underdog that leaves reasonable doubt.

but I’m not going to reply anymore to you trolls anymore. Anyone who cant have a discussion without name calling is an emotional child looking for attention. Atleast the posters above can present their arguments with reason and logic.

blocked
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Have you really never heard the phrase "bet the line, not the team" or in this case, fighter? Bragging about unproven winnings makes you look like a child, and arguing for ignoring lines and betting big favorites parlayed makes you seem ignorant about betting. I don't know you, but that's how it seems.
 
ballsackarino said:
Don't feed the trolls guys.
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Walt looks pretty good. I know he's only a 1 round fighter but I really don't like how much Greg Hardy was able to put it on Tybura in that 1st round. Tybura has bad footwork, bad headmovement and lunges forward with his chin out in the air. Walt has pretty good takedown defence. Stylistically it favours Walt. At the very least it's dog or pass, I can't imagine paying 1.60 for Tybura
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Agree. Tybura got put out 3/5 fights at one point by Sakai, Adurakhimov, and Lewis. Walt Harris almort KOed Reem as a favorite, then got destroyed by volkov (one of only 3 actually technical HW kickboxers). Tybura isn't close to either of them, and Harris is a big step up from Hardy. If Hardy had Harris' power then he would've gotten the KO. Major recency bias here cuz of losing two in a row. I'm putting a unit on Harris. A bit of value on Harris KO r1 maybe as well, or just KO line period, haven't checked props yet.
 
Black Paladin said:
Sakai can shoot on him and take him down for a ground-and-pound session, or a submission. Not necessarily at will, but he has a good chance.
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Has he ever done that before? I've not seem him actually wrestle or use his bjj in the ufc
 
DonQ94 said:
Sakai seems to have a decent chin and output for a HW. On the contrary Rozenstruik is very low volume. So unless you banking on that KO I wouldn't touch him personally.
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In a 5 round HW fight you have to bank on a KO. If this goes the distance it'll be the most boring main event of all time even more than Gane vs Rozenstruik, cuz at least gane is good.
 
Val Dewar said:
Has he ever done that before? I've not seem him actually wrestle or use his bjj in the ufc
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That's sort of the thing: he hasn't shown it much in the Octagon yet. But he has the credentials to put it out there.

We will see Saturday night.
 
While Baeza has looked fairly good lately Matt Brown had him nearly out in the first. If Brown has you stunned what does this version of Ponzi do(big question). Latifi could have taken the fight with Derek Lewis if Lewis wasn't so massive Latifi would have gotten him down easier and more frequently. Wouldn't be shocked if Latifi even weighs more than Boser come weigh-ins as Bosers been coming in slim. Latifi must get takedowns or he's cooked.
 
Black Paladin said:
That's sort of the thing: he hasn't shown it much in the Octagon yet. But he has the credentials to put it out there.

We will see Saturday night.
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He's a BJJ brown belt but he's never gone for a proper TD in the UFC. Not to mention Rozens TDD is much better than he gets credit for, Gane had to chain TDs to get him down at all and had little success when he did.

Would be extremely surprising to see an unathletic HW who never wrestles like Sakai suddenly come out and do a better job.
 
Jordan3399 said:
He's a BJJ brown belt but he's never gone for a proper TD in the UFC. Not to mention Rozens TDD is much better than he gets credit for, Gane had to chain TDs to get him down at all and had little success when he did.

Would be extremely surprising to see an unathletic HW who never wrestles like Sakai suddenly come out and do a better job.
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You are coming at me like I guaranteed he would take that action. I just said it's not impossible.

Again, we will see Saturday night.

"Saturday Night's Alright for Fighting"--Sir Elton John

(EDIT: I see you are from the UK. I had to edit to give Elton his proper title.)
 
Jordan3399 said:
He's a BJJ brown belt but he's never gone for a proper TD in the UFC. Not to mention Rozens TDD is much better than he gets credit for, Gane had to chain TDs to get him down at all and had little success when he did.

Would be extremely surprising to see an unathletic HW who never wrestles like Sakai suddenly come out and do a better job.
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He did attempt a single leg on Arlovski but abandoned it quick
 
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