UFC on ESPN 19 Hermansson vs. Holland

[Broe.]

Dolidze by sub x 9 seems nice. He has a bunch of different subs on his record and Allan loves to lose by sub.

Edit: i see a bunch of people had the same thought. The line of x9 is still available at some euro bookies.

 

[mkess101]

I want to bet Hermansson but something is stopping me pulling the trigger.

Tape says Herm, to be honest Vettori didn't really impress me on tape. Jack Slack called him 'meat and potatoes' on twitter and I agree. Not that he's bad but he's basic, he doesn't do that much, what he does he makes work and it is effective, I just don't know if it's enough to beat top 5 opponents.

I believe Vettori clearly lost two rounds to Izzy and I also think he lost the Ahkmedov fight. So his best will is maybe Robertson? A two time weight missing kick boxer and he even got his back taken in that fight.

I also didn't like the way Vettori got taken with some many body locks and trips by Shoeface, he has definitely improved since then but so has Herm and I also think Herm has the better body lock take downs and is much more athletic than Shoeface.

I'm finding hesitation in betting Herm more based on his mental lapses, I do think there are some small questions over his chin and him giving up when he is hurt, but at the same time he showed great resilience against Thales to fight through a broken rib and survive a deep head and arm choke.

Power seems to scare him off and shell him up and and I don't think Vettori has that power.

Both have shown good volume and set high paces but I do side with Herm there also.



Why am I not betting Herm?

IMO Hermannson is too opportunistic and slick with his grappling to pay any juice at all on Vettori here. I know the line is close, but even at -135 or whatever Marvin is, I couldn't see betting him. He could be controlling the action for 15 minutes, make one mistake, and be tapping seconds later. Way too nervewracking to make that play.

On the flipside I can see a case for a play on Jack. I don't LOVE it, because I think Vettori likely will get the better of more exchanges than not when it's standing. But I can see it. Wouldn't dream of making it a big play or anything but Jack as a dog might have a bit of value. I think if forced I'd make him a very slight favorite honestly. Something like Hermannson -120, Vettori +100 seems about where I'd cap it?

 

[Captain Crunch28]

What time are the weigh-ins today? Can’t seem to find it anywhere

 

[piglord]

i'm on john allan ml +180 with a sprinkle on dolidze sub +800.

 

[Captain Crunch28]

Looks like weigh-ins are at 12pm ET

 

[sonhow]

OSP 207,5

 

[StewDogg11]

OSP 207,5

Only a pound and a half over, think he’ll keep trying?

 

[sonhow]

Only a pound and a half over, think he’ll keep trying?

He kinda looked content on scale
Did his usual hand move and all that.

 

[Card]

Jamahal Hill (205.5) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (207.5) - Forfeited 20 percent

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I like villante/collier over 1.5 at -150. Both of these guys are mediocre and coming from lower weight classes where they were unsuccessful.

Gian is a notorious gasser and I would never consider playing him as this big of a favorite and actually think there may be value on collier

 

[Deleted member 316645]

After watching tape on Nate and Mosvar, Mosvar should win. But that line(betmgm has him at -650 right now) is WAY too wide.

Threw 100 on Nate @+450

 

[Wiktoruspro]

After watching tape on Nate and Mosvar, Mosvar should win. But that line(betmgm has him at -650 right now) is WAY too wide.

Threw 100 on Nate @+450

Lol You think Evloev wins but you bet Nate because he has bigger plus number



Numbers dont fight, Evloev will win

 

[Oblivian]

We got some fun grappling matches on this card. Damon Jackson/Ilia followed by Flick/Durden followed by Leavitt/Wiman followed by Smolka/Quinonez. We are probably looking at 2 hours of scrambles!

 

[TrueAscension]

I am really confused why Jack is a dog here. Vettori has beaten no one. This screams "there are levels to this game" imo

 

[rev0lver]

I was trashing Smolka a little bit earlier but the more I think about it, I think he could be the best pick of this card at -130 or so. Quinonez gatekeeps the lowest tier of the division and has always lost to anyone decent. Smolka's record is spotty against even mid-tier guys, but he's way better on paper here and Quinonez might not even be mid tier at the ufc level

 

[carolinagrapple]

We got some fun grappling matches on this card. Damon Jackson/Ilia followed by Flick/Durden followed by Leavitt/Wiman followed by Smolka/Quinonez. We are probably looking at 2 hours of scrambles!

I love betting the over/unders on subs for the entire event and this should be a good for that. Unfortunately I don't see them listed on betanysports...arggg

 

[TrueAscension]

I was trashing Smolka a little bit earlier but the more I think about it, I think he could be the best pick of this card at -130 or so. Quinonez gatekeeps the lowest tier of the division and has always lost to anyone decent. Smolka's record is spotty against even mid-tier guys, but he's way better on paper here and Quinonez might not even be mid tier at the ufc level

key words “on paper”
dog or pass imo but bol

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I am really confused why Jack is a dog here. Vettori has beaten no one. This screams "there are levels to this game" imo

Well i actually like Jack as the underdog. I think Jack gets it done.

 

[rev0lver]

key words “on paper”
dog or pass imo but bol

Yeah and Smolka usually fights much better or worse than he should on paper. But my dog or pass instinct stopped hitting for me here the more I looked into Quinonez. He's an ok wrestler with mediocre-to-ok striking. 9 fights into the UFC and a win over Smolka would be his best win by a wide margin. His path to victory is most likely Smolka making a mistake and getting trapped in a sub, but with less ability to do that than most of Smolka's competition. Small favorite odds looks pretty good against that.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Lol You think Evloev wins but you bet Nate because he has bigger plus number



Numbers dont fight, Evloev will win

I think Evloev doesn't win nearly as much as the odds indicate, thus there being value on Nate at the current odds.

This is basic shit. I'm not surprised so many people on here give you shit for being an idiot now, lol.