UFC Vegas 76: Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov, July 1

Since everyone complains I don’t share bets prefight

I have Gatto rds 2,3
Petrovic rds 2,3
Blagoy rds 2,3 rom rd 1ko
St denis +265
Carolina +190
Dawson +115
Rinat rds 2,3
Brito under 1.5 -210
Brito under .5 +190
Ferreira rd 1 +175
Strickland -170

let’s cash some big plus tickets
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
I played Gatto -175.

I think she breaks her
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Line is better than current but would still be a pass for me. I liked how Lipski looked vs Aldrich. Could be a one off for sure. I do still favor Gatto but not by much. Good luck.
 
mkess101 said:
Line is better than current but would still be a pass for me. I liked how Lipski looked vs Aldrich. Could be a one off for sure. I do still favor Gatto but not by much. Good luck.
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It’s Aldrich though. Aldrich isn’t going to push lipski and is a chinny flake herself. I bet lipski there as a sizable dog
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
It’s Aldrich though. Aldrich isn’t going to push lipski and is a chinny flake herself. I bet lipski there as a sizable dog
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True. But Lipski actually sort of looked like she knew how to angle off the few times JJ did try to crowd her. Which Lipski hadn't done before. Like even when Antonina came at her, Lipski backed straight up and conceded the clinch. It looks like she **might** have learned not to do that.
 
sonhow said:
Took one against Espino.
Theres a reason I wrote robbery lol.
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technical decision though. He couldn’t last that whole third round lol

I’m on the over at +odds so that first round gonna be sweaty.
 
What's Morales cardio and clinch grappling like? Been a while since I saw him so a bit hazy.

I'm not overly concerned on Griffin getting a KO, though I guess it's possible. I remember Griffin having decent cardio (although him getting on a bit now it may not be as good as it used to be) and generally always keeping in fights. Takedowns not great but able to keep his opponents pressed up against the cage a bit.

Not overly concerned about Morales getting taken down regularly but mostly about Morales not getting Griffin out there early and potentially slowing/accepting being pressed against the fence.
 
Dooze said:
What's Morales cardio and clinch grappling like? Been a while since I saw him so a bit hazy.

I'm not overly concerned on Griffin getting a KO, though I guess it's possible. I remember Griffin having decent cardio (although him getting on a bit now it may not be as good as it used to be) and generally always keeping in fights. Takedowns not great but able to keep his opponents pressed up against the cage a bit.

Not overly concerned about Morales getting taken down regularly but mostly about Morales not getting Griffin out there early and potentially slowing/accepting being pressed against the fence.
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Iirc he comes from a family of judokas and started with that, cardio has looked solid in the fights I've seen of his that hit the third (Contender series fight, Fugitt).

He's as blue chip as it gets as far as prospects go, and since struggles separating himself from his opponents, I think Morales wins a close decision at worst.
 
Tebowned said:
technical decision though. He couldn’t last that whole third round lol

I’m on the over at +odds so that first round gonna be sweaty.
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Yeah but he is favored and I just have hard time imagining how he puts Blagoi away. Donkey kong punching and meme subs work on certain level of competition but Blagoi is that clear step ahead from the guys he's used to put poundings on. I could see him holding Blagoi against the fence and Ivanov just not landing the bigger shots to slow Alex down. And so we have 15 minutes of stalemate.
Or maybe Alex shows something new but I wouldnt hold my breath.
 
I told Ivanov to use his wrestling and not waste the cardio early, he respond like ok, let's see what happens
 
fedortips said:
I told Ivanov to use his wrestling and not waste the cardio early, he respond like ok, let's see what happens
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id prefer if he kept it on the feet. If he can get Romanov on his back sure, but I’d want him to avoid wrestling for the most part
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
We have lipski capped as a favorite here? The same lipski who got finished by mdlr and Antonina? The flake who doesn’t like being pressured and is chinny?

rip
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The Lipski that looked way improved over JJ, who is a far better win than any of Gatto's.
 
xhaydenx said:
The Lipski that looked way improved over JJ, who is a far better win than any of Gatto's.
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I wasn’t sure if she was, but yea. She improved. The tdd looked good. Gatto fought dumb. Luckily i was able to buy lipski live at +2–
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
I wasn’t sure if she was, but yea. She improved. The tdd looked good. Gatto fought dumb. Luckily i was able to buy lipski live at +2–
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I thought Gatto fought like she normally does. She's never had a good td game and her grappling is opportunistic, not forced. She was always going to be a bit slower with her strikes.

Congrats on the win.

I picked Lipski to win by keeping it standing and just winning with faster strikes and better visuals.

But then bet on Gatto instead lol. Saw too many bettors going on Gatto and assumed I must have been wrong haha.
 
xhaydenx said:
I thought Gatto fought like she normally does. She's never had a good td game and her grappling is opportunistic, not forced. She was always going to be a bit slower with her strikes.

Congrats on the win.

I picked Lipski to win by keeping it standing and just winning with faster strikes and better visuals.

But then bet on Gatto instead lol. Saw too many bettors going on Gatto and assumed I must have been wrong haha.
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initially I thought thinking was wide. Initial feeling was to play lipski at +200. Then the line moved and I bought Gatto figuring I could always live bet out. Was also influenced by others

wmma. Gatto has success against Cortez but can’t get lipski down.

had a pretty good feeling Gatto sucked as well. Should of went with my gut read
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
wmma. Gatto has success against Cortez but can’t get lipski down.

had a pretty good feeling Gatto sucked as well. Should of went with my gut read
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Nothing to do with WMMA lol. Just a totally different fight dynamic.

It's a lot easier to hit tds on someone when you're imposing yourself on them with your striking. Gatto was bigger and longer than Cortez and was able to force her to the cage and and td easily from there. She had Cortez thinking strikes, but then shoots for a td. Lipski is bigger than Cortez and way more dangerous with her strikes. Gatto was only able to corral Lipski up like once in 15 minutes as a result.

Cortez's defensive wrestling isn't as good as her offensive wrestling either. Most girls are too afraid of her wrestling to try and take her down. Gatto is mostly an opportunistic grappler: doesn't care if she gets taken down because she's fine to work off her back. It gives her more confidence to go after a girl like Cortez, who didn't have the striking to deter her.

I don't know if Gatto really sucks. She's still going to beat a lot of good girls. I think it's more that Lipski has just leveled up. Her counter wrestling has improved a ton, as well as her fight IQ. She even seems way snappier with her strikes, which is something I feel like fighters at her age don't really increase.

Pretty excited to see where all three girls go to be honest. This new wave of FLWs is fun.
 
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