1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2018
    Messages:
    2,823
    Likes Received:
    375
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Why do you see no hopes? Cerrone almost always gets better the later the fight goes and has better cardio than Hernandez. Getting a sub will be more difficult the later it goes as they get sweaty but on the other hand the later it goes the more likely a KO is as he gets Hernandez timing.
     
  2. Gugabe Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2017
    Messages:
    2,190
    Likes Received:
    301
    Cliiiiiiip return to the discord. CFB might be over, but you don't need to burn your profits playing favourites in the UFC.

    True. I just think that a lot of a Hernandez win is either going to happen inside 3 mins, or just be very apparent that he's manhandling Cerrone and there's no value on him. Hernandez will probably win the first round so I should be able to pick up Cerrone @ +3/400 with some luck.
     
  3. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2013
    Messages:
    29,775
    Likes Received:
    7,583
    Location:
    Buenos Aires, Argentina
    Damn.. I love a lot of dogs:
    Edwards
    Muhammad
    Sandhagen
    Cerrone
    Glover

    I think there is value in all of them.

    BTW.. I see a little bit of discussion in Gillespie vs Medeiros. Playing devils advocate here... are you guys considering the size difference here? People claim Gregor is a small LW and Yancy has fought at 170 with some level of success.
    I dont know if that is enough to close the big gap in skills but I think it should be noted.
     
  4. Broe. Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2017
    Messages:
    3,148
    Likes Received:
    1,313
    I like Muhammad as a small underdog x 2.35. Neal looked quite good vs Camacho but Camacho is a very undersized lightweight with a severe reach disadvantage who is extremely hittable, so any decent striker would look great vs him. Neall has not faced any good competition yet and his gastank and his wrestling abilities remain questionmarks, he gassed after 1.5 rounds vs Kevin Holland. I also noticed he doesnt defend low kicks very well.

    Muhammed on the other hand has proven to be very good vs rangy strikers, he beat Means, and Jordan Mein in his previous fights, so he seems very well suited to this style matchup. Muhammad is a pretty well rounded fighter who also has decent wrestling abilities. Muhammed should have the cardio and the wrestling edge, and Neall is just a little too unproven for my liking. I don't think Muhammad should be the underdog in this fight to be honest.
     
  5. edole Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2008
    Messages:
    4,213
    Likes Received:
    21
    Location:
    TR
    I think Hernandez is a horrible matchup for Cerrone, which sucks, because he is a huge tool in my opinion.

    I also think Ostovich has a chance to box up Paige if the fight stays standing.
     
  6. edole Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2008
    Messages:
    4,213
    Likes Received:
    21
    Location:
    TR
    Gregor Gillespie seems like a fairly safe parlay piece

    Medeiros stinks
     
  7. Broe. Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2017
    Messages:
    3,148
    Likes Received:
    1,313
    lol KO'ing Lineker? have you seen him block Dillashaws elbows with his forehead on purpose? I dont think Sandhagen has the power to KO Lineker, I am not sure I have seen a chin as good as Linekers''. this fight could look a bit like the Lineker Dodson fight, but Dodson is faster and slicker if you ask me, I think a Font-lineker Kind of fight is more of what could be expected.
     
  8. edole Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2008
    Messages:
    4,213
    Likes Received:
    21
    Location:
    TR
    If Geoff Neal can stuff takedowns against Belal, he could piece him up on the feet.

    Neal has good hands, amd Belal is very hittable.
     
  9. edole Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2008
    Messages:
    4,213
    Likes Received:
    21
    Location:
    TR
    Hernandez's cardio held up fine against OAM in a very wrestle-heavy affair.
     
  10. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2018
    Messages:
    1,839
    Likes Received:
    491
    Means' wheelhouse is the clinch actually. He can strike from distance if he has to, but it's not his thing. Muhammad beat him with simple jab. J.Mein crumbles if you are able to bully him. Plain and simple. It's not a win that I can say "Belal beat Mein, so he can beat a guy who's going to be in his face right from the bell, trying to knock his block off.

    I don't see Belal's chances, unless he really sticks to a solid gameplan. I know he is smart man and probably has good gameplan for this contest, but I see him having to work hard for all his wins so far and for the most part they were v sub par competition. The only way I see him winning is if Geoff hits him so many times and doesn't get the KO and get tired. So a Bektic vs Elkins scenario... Belal is very good if he has you on the defence at all times, behind the black lines. If he is on that other side he is not nearly that good. Poor defensive responses, flinching, bad footwork... I see Neal's incredible handspeed, combined with little to no wind up on the punches and fast footwork giving Belal huge, huge problems. Neal is not a counter-puncher, he is not gonna wait, he is in your grill so Belal is going to be the hunted for a change. Since Luque fight, everybody that he fights is shying away from exchanges (except Means). This is not gonna be the case here. Neal is a very hard worker, he balances day job and MMA training, but he is disciplined and he really needs that win, so one more reason to trust him. Fortis MMA is not the best camp, but there are a lot worse places. They are doing relativeley well now.

    Last: I've got a question, how many times Belal had to defuse a knock out artist in the UFC?
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2019
  11. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2018
    Messages:
    2,823
    Likes Received:
    375
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Not saying its bad but it looked like it was taking its toll by the end he just pushed through. I didn't mention it as a big advantage for Cerrone but it is definitely something in his favour and show Hernandez won't be able to simply outwork him.
     
  12. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2018
    Messages:
    2,823
    Likes Received:
    375
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    As much as I said how I thought Belal could be a good dog, Neal is a seriously tough fight. If nothing else we've seen Belals chin cracked before and betting on him is relying on him to go wrestling heavy (with success) and ideally cause Neal to slow down. I might do a small bet on Belal's ML but theres a lot of potential for him to get destroyed here and I wouldn't be that confident in Belal, a small bet at +150 seemed smart but not a big bet when he's closer to +120. The decision line will probably be the smart bet.
     
  13. Dianabol Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2018
    Messages:
    689
    Likes Received:
    0
    https://www.betmma.tips/MMAGE

    My full results from last year +80u, 18% ROI
    Should actually be +85u cause I did bet Yair but forgot to post.
    My goal is always too get at least +100u a year and keep my ROI at least 20%, came a little short last year but that won't happen again.

    Only bet ML because of unit size
     
  14. GoldenWolf87 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2018
    Messages:
    4,733
    Likes Received:
    2,226
    I like the chances for Geoff Neal getting a KO win though. By the way whose vinicius castro? the UFC site has no info on that fighter whose going agaisnt menifield.
     
  15. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2018
    Messages:
    1,839
    Likes Received:
    491
    Like C.Anderson last week (if you going to bet more on Anderson, hedge it with Latifi inside 1st), I think anybody willing to bet big on Neal should hedge it with Belal's decision (and I think I'm going to do that). This is, I think, Belal's only way to win. He has to survive rough first round and hope Neal slows down a lot for the 2nd and 3rd IMO.
     
  16. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2017
    Messages:
    2,928
    Likes Received:
    460
    Yance will lose, dont bet him. Get a dog with a real chance to win.
     
  17. Dianabol Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2018
    Messages:
    689
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gotta agree with pretty much everything but I'm not picking Edwards.

    I don't like the move to 155 for Bermudez, don't think he has the right frame for 155, too short. Suspect chin, 4 fight losing streak, 16-9 pro record, 32 years old, I think it's fair to say he's past his prime and his prime was never that good.

    But I would also argue that Bermudez's last 3 losses were total coin flip fights, besides the Glenn fight which was kind of a robbery. Those losses could have been wins, Bermudez fought close and got unlucky with the judges. Had Bermudez won those fights yet performing the same, the line for this fight would be totally different, get what I'm saying?

    Even with everything going against Bermudez, I just can't get over the massive edge in experience he has over Edwards. Edwards is 6-2 and his competition level isn't comparable to Bermudez's at all.

    Yes Edwards has a solid wrestling background, KO power he's younger, he's bigger, athletic, 6" reach advantage, trains at the MMA Lab which is a great gym. Edwards seems like a real confident/cocky kind of fighter and he just got dominated in his last fight, I wonder how much did that damage his confidence and how it will affect this performance.

    I have to favor Bermudez because besides punching power, Edwards hasn't shown me anything that makes me think he can win this fight. Could totally see Edwards KO'ing Bermudez but have a hard time seeing him win a fight that goes down the stretch. As you said Edwards has never won a fight outside of the 1st round. Also have to think this is do or die for Bermudez, backs against the wall, he needs this win, fighting at home.

    You would not believe this but Bermudez has been a betting favorite over his last 15 opponents, the only fighter he wasn't favored over in the UFC was Diego Brandao in his UFC debut. Bermudez is the cheapest he's been in 15 fights and its against Te Edwards, crazy.
     
  18. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2017
    Messages:
    2,928
    Likes Received:
    460
    Vanzant vs Ostovich is dog or pass. Both are only fap fap material, fightwise they are awful.
    Vanzant is definietly no parlay material.
     
  19. Dianabol Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2018
    Messages:
    689
    Likes Received:
    0
    PVZ will beat Ostovich, I guarantee it.

    Ostovich is a jobber, 500 fighter, trains at a bum gym, lost to low level competition and on top of that she enters this fight with a lot of personal problems.

    PVZ is more athletic and skilled everywhere. She outstruck JRC with a broken arm and won the 3rd round. Look at PVZ losses, only to good fighters, not bums like Ostovich. PVZ is still a young improving fighter too, her best his to come.

    I think PVZ wins her tune up fight and does so easily.
     
  20. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2017
    Messages:
    2,928
    Likes Received:
    460
    Maybe she will but I dont trust her, she trains at a bum gym too either.
    Odds to shity to bet her single, and to much risk to parlay her but thats just my opinion.
    I will parlay Lipski for sure.
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.