Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 15, 2016.
Not worried about Gillespie being a NCAA Division I wrestling champion?
Gonna copy EzFlyer and share my weigh in thoughts:
Wow! Erick Silva looks gorgeous with that hair and beard combo, hope he doesn't change it.
I think it was just because he looked small next to franca at weigh ins?
Dropping a unit on Gregor now at +150.
She's probably getting murdered but christ Lina Lansberg is hot!
She has that "you can put it anywhere you want tonight" face.
Doubt I'll get to live bet tomorrow unless I can get btsport Working on my iPad..
Prebet again but will have to keep small
gillepsie DEC +403 now.. wth. i mean sure, that goes in line w/this absurdly big movement on franca's ML, but i think that's by far the most likely way for gillepsie to win..
i'm already on franca ML, SUB, and NSC lines.. but i'm gonna play a little gillepsie DEC +403 here.
Ahhhh kind of regretting Franca sub now that the Murican has such a nice decision line. Fuck it, hard fight to call anyway, just wanted to cheer for my countryman and fellow east coaster
Had to hit the murican wrestler small
Catching up reading 15 pages only to read silva is looking hot when we have 4 silvas on the card followed by a erection gif.
Gillespie by decision seems to have a lot of value.
LOL fucking love that gif
Never stop trolling Barry
You are a staple
You might outlast us all ITT
Idk what to do about Silva.... He looks good, he might have it in him for a round and a half who knows
Probably just gonna end up staying away, but damn, at those odds its hard not to bet on him , looking the best he has in his past 3-4 fights
Man Felder really looking much bigger
What up my ninjas! I have been trying to catch up with the UFC fight night 95 thread here you guys have put a lot of good work in here. Long AF lol ... But you have been killing it as usual I see. Still the sharpest bettors in one place! I've been killing it lately too. Just in MMA I'm +111.91 units and a 36.64% ROI
To give back I thought I'd do a breakdown of the fights for anyone who is riding the fence or has not had time to do the research. I broke down nine… well, actually 8 1/2 fights below Lol... I will give the other four either later tonight or tomorrow ...if you have any further questions with them just let me know.
Cyborg Santos vs. Lina Landsberg
In the main event, you have… Blah blah blah blah blah Cyborg by massacre...b blah blah blah blah blah… why am I even writing this we already know what's going to happen there is no point in even doing a breakdown ….doc blah blah blah blah blah…I'm wasting my time and you are wasting yours reading it.… Blah blah blah blah blah first round finish ..blah blah blah blah blah Cyborg might as well have fought CM Punk blah blah blah blah blah ..I would actually bet her to beat Mr. Brooks… Blah blah blah blah blah Bubba blah… Blah blah blah blah…can we get on with these sacrificial lamb mockeries ... blah blah blah blah… Cyborg another first-round knockout.. err ..execution.
Renan Barao vs. Philippe Nover
Poor poor feinting Philipe. Once described by carnival barker turned mixed martial promoter Dana White as the next George St. Pierre, this male nurse has had a rough go of things since his stellar season on the TUF way back in 2010. Still yet, Nover has bounced back admirably and has a golden opportunity here to set everything right. Competent in all areas, Nover is an excellent striker and holds a Black belt in BJJ to boot. The problem? Well, he's facing the former 135 pound kingpin and top five p4p mainstay Renan Barao in the former champion's backyard. What's more, anything Nover can do Barao can do better. A ninja level striker with a deadly grappling game, the Brazilian is an absolute killer when in peak form. The only problem is that ever since the loss to TJ Dillashaw in 2013 Barao's psyche has been as fragile as a six-year-old progeria patient. Nevertheless, the Brazilian is still on a level that Nover hasn't shown the ability to successfully complete. That said, if Barao comes in flat I am puts on a Uriah Hall-esque performance — unable to pull the trigger — it's very likely that this fight ends up closer than it ever should be. As such given Barao's 4-1 favorite betting line, I find no value in him at all. In fact, a prop play on Nover by decision A +500 or better may not be the craziest idea ever at this stage. Ultimately though, Barao gets back on the horse with a late second round submission victory.
Roy Nelson v. Bigfoot Silva
Bring on the meat and reinforce the cage! With nearly 600 pounds of beef trampling across the octagon cage this weekend the UFC will need to buttress their platform and reinforce the steel cage in order to keep the big boys from spilling out. With both men entering the contest on the wrong side of 35 and having gone 1-4 in their last five bouts respectively, this is almost assuredly a loser leaves town match up. Both fighters have slowed to a trickle in recent matches yet it is Bigfoot who continues to perform as it of his feet are encased in concrete during each subsequent outing. Unfortunately, the fighter with the Easter Island sized head has a chin seemingly constructed of fine China. Meanwhile, at 40 years old Roy Nelson is still doing what he was doing 33 which is spamming that fried skillet of an overhand right like a hellfire missile towards his opponents cranium with hopes of just touching them. The last thing to go on a fighter is his power and "Big Country" still has this in spades. Moreover, as demonstrated in his latest tilt versus "The Black Beast" Derrick Lewis, Nelson showed that despite recent punishment he still has one of the all-time great heavyweight chins in MMA history. Given the stylistic matchup we are looking at another brain scrambling bit of trauma for poor Bigfoot Silva. Nelson finishes Silva inside of three minutes and packing to Bellator.
Francisco Trinaldo vs. Paul Felder
Ask yourself, is there really a more enjoyable nickname to say out loud in all of mixed martial arts then Massaranduba? Answer is an emphatic no! The 5'9" Brazilian fire hydrant Trinaldo was competitor on The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, where he competed as a fucking middleweight! Trinaldo is a gargantuan bruiser who somehow manages to make the 155 pound weight limit quite comfortably it seems. Additionally, the Brazilian has seemed to have solve the cardio problems that once plagued him early in his UFC career. Now rolling on a six fight win streak, the Black belt Kickboxer complements his striking with his proficient wrestling and a BJJ Brown Belt. The lightweight in the other corner is the fiery red head banger known as the "Irish Dragon". A brutal kickboxer, Felder is a excellent striker with power in all eight limbs. Recently he's sured up his takedown defense where he can remain vertical and ply his trade on the feet. A hulking physical specimen himself, Felder doesn't have the tank of a frame that Trinaldo sports, but the American is grizzly bear strong nonetheless. This physical strength is going to be pertinent against the Brazilian as there will be a lot of clinch fighting and Felder will need to fight off the TDA's and try to exhaust his opponents gas tank. If Felder is able to make Massaranduba work early and expend his energy, I believe he has a chance to get the stoppage late in the fight. However, the stylistic matchup favors the Brazilian and I've seen nothing to suggest that Felder has the tools to halt the Brazilian boulders momentum. Soooo... Massaranduba remains competitive in the striking while bullying Felder in the clinch en-route to winning two of three rounds.
Thiago Santos vs. Eric Spicely
A middleweight matchup between former TUF veterans. First up is a participant on the second season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, Thiago "Maretta" Santos. The Brazilian destroyer Santos black belt Muay-Thai striker with a protracted 75 inch reach. The dude has a real mean streak and you need to put him away to get him to stop marching forward. The fighter known as "Maretta" is a hard hitting sniper on the feet who also possesses a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. In short, he is a competent all around fighter with a varied skill set capable of competing wherever the fight takes place. Standing in the opposite corner will be TUF 23 participant Eric Spicely. The 29-year-old Spiceley is about as middling a UFC middleweight can be and still remain on the roster. Not without skill, the skateboard enthusiast turned full-time fighter has amassed an 8-2 record in the sport which has seen him submitted four opponents and knock out another two. Moreover, the finishes are varied with four submissions coming via four different methods. Nevertheless, Spiceley is up against it here as he's facing a straight killer who is coming off of a disappointing loss to top 10 ranked middleweight Gegard Mousassi at UFC 200. Meanwhile, Spiceley just got choked unconscious by "Smilin'" Sam Alvey. Make no mistake, Maretta is going to be hungry and Spiceley is going to be his lunch. This is the long and short of it.
Gilbert Burns vs. Michel Prazeres
Headlining the UFC fight pass event will be a pair of Brazilian grappling specialists in, Gilbert “Durinho” Burns battles fellow-155 pound colleague Michel “Tractor” Prazeres. Lightweight Sherman tank come to life Michel Prazeres is 4-2 in the UFC and 20-2 overall. Tractor uses his phenomenal strength and physicality to out muscle his opponent and drag them to the canvas where he can use his BJJ black belt and smothering grappling game. Despite having a black belt and BJJ, Tractor rarely finds the finish and has in fact not scored a single stoppage victory during his six fight UFC tenure. Conversely, his opponent this Saturday is a big finisher and with his excellent 11-1 professional record all but one were recorded before the final horn. Also a black belt in BJJ, Burns is a world-class submission grappling ace with a litany of tournament victories to his name. The 30-year-old Blackzillions fighter will enter the contest vs. Prazeres with a 4 inch height and reach advantage respectively. This will be bolstered by his strong edge in the athleticism department as Gilbert should have a prodigious speed advantage over Prazeres on the feet as well as being for more explosive and opportunistic on the mat. I expect that Burns will be able to keep this fight upright for as long as he so chooses which should benefit him given that he is the more technical striker of the two. In addition, Tractor has been incredibly vulnerable when the fight gets out of the first round as he begins to slow to a trickle until the enough nothing left in the tank by the third round. While Burns has shown a bit of cardio problems himself, he has also shown the ability to bounce back from adversity as illustrated in his third round comeback win via submission over Cowboy Oliveira. At -180 I do believe that Burns will be good for a parlay piece and I also like him as a decision prop bet as I believe that Tractor should be able to defend himself unless he is completely gassed.
Rani Yahya vs. Michinori Tanaka
This is a fight that I have either capped entirely wrong or else the book makers are off their fucking rockers. Indeed, I see this fight diametrically opposed to the betting public and line setters. Just from stylistic standpoint I believe this fight favors the Japanese import. Michihiro Tanaka. First off, Tanaka has amazing TDD as a black belt in Judo which helps keep him vertical. What's more, an educated submission grappler himself, I believe that more often than not Tanaka will be able to at least defend himself if taken down and work his way back to the feet. In the other aspects of the game Tanaka is going to have a significant edge. His striking and wrestling are much better technically and then intangibles fall in his camp as well. The Japanese prospect should enjoy an edge in both speed and explosion and cardio by a large margin as the Brazilian has a very small gas tank. Granted Tanaka's conditioning waned a bit in his fight with Joe Soto, but that fight was a very taxing tilt for both men. However, in his barn-burner of a classic against Kyung Ho Kang we saw Tanaka engage in a back and forth grappling battle for a nonstop 15 minutes with gas still left in the tank in the final frame. Also keep in mind that Tanaka has competed in three or more round bouts plenty of times outside the UFC and went five rounds twice in the Asian MMA organization PXC where as the champion he was successful both times. This against quality competition no less. Once against UFC prospect Russell Doane who he finished with a third round RNC.
Summarily, the Brazilian veteran will have all sorts of problems if he is unable to bring the fight to the mat. Rani doesn't have good striking to transition into takedowns and his shots are slow and predictable. Not only will Tanaka see them coming, but his speed, strength, and strong hips should help him negate them. Look for Tanaka to sprawl and brawl for the first round and then pour it on in the second and third stanza winning an easy 29–28 unanimous decision if not putting the Brazilian away in the third round with strikes.
Erick Silva vs. Luan Chagas
After initially blazing through his UFC competition like a California wildfire, Brazilian Erick Silva looked like he was ready to rape and pillage the division. Until he didn't. Still An ultra-dynamic talent at 32, Silva holds black belts in both Karate and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Overall he is 6-6 in the octagon and is 0-5 in all bouts that have went past the first frame. What's more, he's had his brain scrambled numerous times now and appears to be a casualty of USADA. Meanwhile, Silva will be taking on a prospect who has the type of hype around him that he once had when he faces fellow countrymen Luan Chagas. A black belt in BJJ and karate himself, the 23-year-old prospect will make his sophomore appearance this weekend after an impressive draw against veteran Sergio Moraes in his Octagon debut. With a record of 14-1, Chagas has finished 10 fights in the first round; winning by eight submissions and six knockouts respectively. Long story short, this fight matches up a pair of men who don't prefer to get paid by the hour. Still, look for Silva to pick his shots and use his veteran savvy instead of untempered foot on the gas aggression this time. From interviews Silva is happy training in his hometown and being around his family and children. And from all accounts appears to be in a great place mentally. Moreover it's important to note that in losses to DHK, Fitch, Magny and Matt Brown, all of Silva's L's have been at the hands of A-level fighters. What's more, even in defeat Silva was a hairsbreadth from victory in each of them. Only against Norine Taleb was Silva straight up mauled and Taleb's no mark. Having said that, Silva feasts on average competition and if Chagas isn't as good as we think — or has yet to make the leap to top 20 status at the very least — he is going to be another middling WW scalp on Silva's mantle. As the underdog I'm going to ride with the veteran who has proven that he can get past good but not great fighters.
Gregor Gillespie vs. Glaico Franca
Sorry this one is a little bit longer but I had more to say:
Of all the fighters on the card this weekend remember to bookmark the match between the first two fighters on the docket as you'll get a glimpse of former D-1 national wrestling standout and über mixed martial arts prospect Gregor Gillespie. Entering the contest with an unblemished 7-0 record, Gillespie is the Ring of Combat Lightweight champion. The undefeated 29-year-old trains out of the Bellmore Kickboxing Academy and Scarola BJJ where other beasts such as Andre Harrison, Ryan LaFlare, Dennis Bermudez and Costa Phillippou among other notables have plied their trade. Gillespie was the 149 pound champion at Pennsylvania wrestling powerhouse Edinburgh University which is the program that brought us Josh Koscheck. Much like Kos, Gillespie has a terrific double leg TD he utilizes which is accentuated by his amazing speed, scrambling ability and conditioning. While his standup is still in the beta stages, it is serviceable enough to remain competitive and allow him to use it as a smokescreen to transition successfully into his freight train of a double leg takedown. From there he works his man over from top control never letting them rest.
As an underdog I would be very heavy on Gillespie if it weren't for the fact that he is so undersized. His future undoubtedly lies in the 145 pound — or possibly even 135 — class. Just 5'9" tall with an average frame, Gillespie isn't going to be able to hang with the monsters of the division. What's more, he doesn't have a Tibau-esque frame to make up for his shortcomings. Worse still, Gillespie's opponent is going to be the 6'0" Glaico Franca who at 25 years old is solid prospect himself. Additionally, Franca is a versatile martial artist with excellent MT skills and with a history in Judo has a nice set of grappling chops himself. This evidenced by his seven career submission victories. Nevertheless, as the underdog I do believe that Gillespie holds value and if he can get out of the first round without getting submitted, I believe that he can use his fantastic conditioning to wear his Brazilian foe out in route to winning a clear-cut decision. Though that may be a bit tricky in Brazil. If the fight was in Vegas I would be much more confident in Gillespie.
When I finished my plays I'll post a few picks ITT and if I forget I will leave them open free in my CT account .. It's $15 for the full card but just disregard that as the FREE plays should show up. I posted some of them above. MMAGamblingTips.cappertek.com
Yep.. Other observations were that Tanaka, Thiago Santos and Ortiz were visibly larger and Erick Silva looked to be in the best condition in the post USADA timeframe.
With you on everything but Gillespie. Bol to us
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