UFC Fight Night 184: Holloway vs Kattar

[HighStakesMMA]

I have faded Max ever since he defended his title against Aldo. How funny will it be when I put a large bet on him now only to watch his legendary chin finally get cracked? Lol.

I will have to re-watch Holloway-Volkanovski part 2 again, but I remember Max demonstrating some really dynamic striking, more so than usual. I liked what I saw. I respect Kattar's hands but Max is still in his prime and so well rounded.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm having a hard time capping Max/Kattar honestly. I think Max will have more volume of course, but Kattar will probably land the more meaningful strikes. I'd be pretty surprised to see Holloway get a finish and am a bit nervous on how judges score the volume vs. harder strikes.

 

[BigSteve]

I'm having a hard time capping Max/Kattar honestly. I think Max will have more volume of course, but Kattar will probably land the more meaningful strikes. I'd be pretty surprised to see Holloway get a finish and am a bit nervous on how judges score the volume vs. harder strikes.

Ye agree. We have just seen Arlovki beat Boser by landing 1 or 2 decent punches per round

 

[TrueAscension]

I'm having a hard time capping Max/Kattar honestly. I think Max will have more volume of course, but Kattar will probably land the more meaningful strikes. I'd be pretty surprised to see Holloway get a finish and am a bit nervous on how judges score the volume vs. harder strikes.

I see Kattar hitting air most of the time with Max out pointing him and maybe finishing him

 

[theTKDguy]

I'm having a hard time capping Max/Kattar honestly. I think Max will have more volume of course, but Kattar will probably land the more meaningful strikes. I'd be pretty surprised to see Holloway get a finish and am a bit nervous on how judges score the volume vs. harder strikes.

Agree 100%. I decided to play kattar at 2.56 and the over 4.5 as a kind of hedge (i think the fight goes the distance either way, def hope kattar takes it tho). I can see calvin getting the ko but i don't think it's likely, i'm trusting max' crazy durability here.

If max somehow gets a finish i'm fucked.

 

[Monster Meat]

Love max he arguably won against volk the second time and the first one was close so it’s not like he has fallen off any. Also the line I think is a good value bc if he did get the decision against volk he would be over 2-1 here

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Plays so far are Brown +145 and Akhmedov @ +130.

Condit is too unreliable, if Court went for TDs at all, Condit would've lost.

Condit kind of just crumbles now, and Brown could easily take Condit down, land a few hard shots, and make him quit.

It should be a 50/50. So +140 is value.

Akhmedov is being undervalued because of the Weidman loss. Weidman just matched up well with him, and it was a close fight.

He should be able to win the first 2 rounds against Breese.

Playing de chirco too I think, I'm just not that high on Buckley.

How long do yellows last? I swear it's been months.

 

[rev0lver]

I have faded Max ever since he defended his title against Aldo. How funny will it be when I put a large bet on him now only to watch his legendary chin finally get cracked? Lol.

Max might have a good chin but, rewatching Max vs Dustin 2 it's hard to get out of my mind how he was nearly finished. Different weight classes sure, but if Kattar can crack Stephens and Burgos he can crack Max.

 

[DonQ94]

I'm having a hard time capping Max/Kattar honestly. I think Max will have more volume of course, but Kattar will probably land the more meaningful strikes. I'd be pretty surprised to see Holloway get a finish and am a bit nervous on how judges score the volume vs. harder strikes.

From what I remember the judges in Abu Dhabi loved scoring volume over hard strikes, the pattern was pretty obvious.

 

[DonQ94]

Plays so far are Brown +145 and Akhmedov @ +130.

Condit is too unreliable, if Court went for TDs at all, Condit would've lost.

Condit kind of just crumbles now, and Brown could easily take Condit down, land a few hard shots, and make him quit.
.

Still, Condit never been properly ko'ed though, whereas Brown's durability is very very questionable these days. I agree that Condit's kryptonite is takedowns, but when was the last time we see Brown implement a takedown heavy gameplan? The under might be interesting, but a straight bet is a hard pass for me

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Plays so far are Brown +145 and Akhmedov @ +130.

Condit is too unreliable, if Court went for TDs at all, Condit would've lost.

Condit kind of just crumbles now, and Brown could easily take Condit down, land a few hard shots, and make him quit.

It should be a 50/50. So +140 is value.

Akhmedov is being undervalued because of the Weidman loss. Weidman just matched up well with him, and it was a close fight.

He should be able to win the first 2 rounds against Breese.

Playing de chirco too I think, I'm just not that high on Buckley.

How long do yellows last? I swear it's been months.

And here we go with your first value play in 2021 ...
De Chirico

 

[Deleted member 316645]

And here we go with your first value play in 2021 ...
De Chirico

I said I bet on Akhmedov and Brown, and am leaning De Chirco for value, because Buckley doesn't deserve to be that much of a favorite.

Relax kid, I thought I sent you to time out in the middle of 2019. It's been pleasant without you around.

When I bet on big dogs, like JDS at +400, you give me shit even if I win over 1k in the same night.

 

[sonhow]

Still, Condit never been properly ko'ed though, whereas Brown's durability is very very questionable these days. I agree that Condit's kryptonite is takedowns, but when was the last time we see Brown implement a takedown heavy gameplan? The under might be interesting, but a straight bet is a hard pass for me

He did take Saunders down and gnp'd his way to victory. Also Wonderboy years ago.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Still, Condit never been properly ko'ed though, whereas Brown's durability is very very questionable these days. I agree that Condit's kryptonite is takedowns, but when was the last time we see Brown implement a takedown heavy gameplan? The under might be interesting, but a straight bet is a hard pass for me

The hardest punch we've seen Condit land in 6 years was the one against McGee in rd1.

I think it's close on the feet, and Brown has the ability to get takedowns to secure rounds. It's not a good fight to bet on, or bet a lot though I'll admit.

Much more confident in Akhmedov.

 

[rev0lver]

I said I bet on Akhmedov and Brown, and am leaning De Chirco for value, because Buckley doesn't deserve to be that much of a favorite.

Agree that Buckley's odds suck for betting because of his hype. But Di Chirico straight up isn't that good. He'll bring serviceable wrestling at best with a sizable discrepancy in standup. Seems like a gimme fight for Buckley so the UFC can keep his hype train going. Would rather pass or take the juice than play mid-sized dog odds on a mediocre fighter on their way out of the UFC.

 

[StewDogg11]

Plays so far are Brown +145 and Akhmedov @ +130.

Condit is too unreliable, if Court went for TDs at all, Condit would've lost.

Condit kind of just crumbles now, and Brown could easily take Condit down, land a few hard shots, and make him quit.

It should be a 50/50. So +140 is value.

Akhmedov is being undervalued because of the Weidman loss. Weidman just matched up well with him, and it was a close fight.

He should be able to win the first 2 rounds against Breese.

Playing de chirco too I think, I'm just not that high on Buckley.

How long do yellows last? I swear it's been months.

I think if Brown takes Condit down he’ll very likely be receiving the 11th submission loss of his career. Brown was fragile even when he was in his prime and even more so now. I think Condit finishes him.

 

[2020Tracked]

Got Condit KO at 5.00, I think Brown's chin is toast

 

[Sono07]

I can't help but think Brown is the more shot fighter at this point. He still has power but his strike defense and reactions are bad. Condit should be able to get in and out of range and land at will.

If Brown goes for TDs I wouldn't be surprised if he gets subbed. Condit reversed Alex Olivera a few times and threatened Chiesa from his guard.

Funny comment from Condit after his last win, even Brown couldn't disagree. It probably doesn't help Matt had some kind of leg surgery back in July though.

 

[Broe.]

I can't help but think Brown is the more shot fighter at this point. He still has power but his strike defense and reactions are bad. Condit should be able to get in and out of range and land at will.

If Brown goes for TDs I wouldn't be surprised if he gets subbed. Condit reversed Alex Olivera a few times and threatened Chiesa from his guard.

Funny comment from Condit after his last win, even Brown couldn't disagree. It probably doesn't help Matt had some kind of leg surgery back in July though.

Yeah totally agree that Brown looks more shot than Condit. He lost a lot of what made him so great. He still almost KO'd Baeza though which is quite an accomplishment.

 

[ctelooming]

Yeah totally agree that Brown looks more shot than Condit. He lost a lot of what made him so great. He still almost KO'd Baeza though which is quite an accomplishment.

More shot, absolutely. But mentally Condit just isn't what he used to be and fights super tentative. At least with Brown you know he's going in there to push the pace and implement his game. Not betting on this fight, but a small bet on Brown by decision wouldn't be awful. Condit's chin is still good and can only see him getting finished if Brown lands a deadly elbow in the clinch or something.