He has a wrestling edge and bjj advantage. He tapped a brown belt out, he could submit a guy like Jordan. He is a good value bet, and a good submission method bet.Is anyone overlooking Gall against Williams?
Gall strikes me as the type of guy who doesn't really have a game so to speak for some reason.
Jordan has pretty much made his game by outlasting guys and hurting them on the feet, his win over Gregory Rodrigues and that close decision against Kuramagomedov make me feel confident in his chances against Gall.Is anyone overlooking Gall against Williams?
Gall strikes me as the type of guy who doesn't really have a game so to speak for some reason.
not super likely but I could see him catching tj in a choke after rocking him.
Happens all the time
And if you bet .33u on every random +1200 that has no chance of hitting, you throw away profit for the sake of hope. No bueno if you wanna be a baller shot callerExactly. If I could get +1200 lines on "super likely" props, I'd be a billionaire by now LMAO.
Na don't be enabler. This is ridiculously low percentage, much lower than the price tag + risk.
Prob like 3-5 times. But to be fair most the of those came after dummies couldn't take a noob sounding smarter than them and came at me without checking my sig
And if you bet .33u on every random +1200 that has no chance of hitting, you throw away profit for the sake of hope. No bueno if you wanna be a baller shot caller
Didn't say you did. Was just answering the man, never said you specifically.Sometimes people just disagree on the likelihood of an outcome. I didn't "come after you" here, I just said I disagree on Corey's chances of subbing TJ. I think it's 10%, maybe a little higher. You think it's 0%. So we disagree, that's all.
And for some reason you're now saying I came at you?
Sure. I feel there is zero evidence to support a .33u play on a +1600 line that requires a Sandhagen guard sub after a TJ td (hes not going for a sub if he rocks TJ, the other guy is just giving random "what ifs" which is why I said don't be an enabler)And that's the thing. We just disagree on what the chances are that it hits. Which is gonna happen, right?
Didn't say you did. Was just answering the man, never said you specifically.
Sure. I feel there is zero evidence to support a .33u play on a +1600 line that requires a Sandhagen guard sub after a TJ td (hes not going for a sub if he rocks TJ, the other guy is just giving random "what ifs" which is why I said don't be an enabler)
You are welcome to blow your money, and I am welcome to say how NO ONE should be betting this way if they wanna be a baller shot caller
Cause hes not that type of fighter. He is going to go for the KO, like he always does. Do you have one piece of evidence of him rocking someone and then going for a sub?Why would he not go for a sub if he rocks him? I guess I'm confused why you think that's not possible? Corey likes to sub hunt. And again, if TJ tires and shoots a sloppy TD against a fresher Corey, his neck could be in play. It's not necessarily guard sub only imo.
I mean, if the chances of it hitting are 0% like you claim, what were the chances of Fluffy subbing Viera LOL? Negative a million percent? What about Rothwell subbing Barnett?
IDK, we just disagree and that's fine, not mad at ya bud.
Cause hes not that type of fighter. He is going to go for the KO, like he always does. Do you have one piece of evidence of him rocking someone and then going for a sub?
He likes to sub hunt vs Mario Bautista. Thats it. Hes going to work back to the feet when hes taken down, cause hes well aware Dillashaw isn't Mario Bautista. Same way he was aware Moraes and Assuncao aren't Bautista, so he worked to get up
Horrible example when Vieira was dead tired. Is that what you're hoping for? TJ to get dead tired?
Of course we disagree. I'm in the money making game. You don't make money betting 1/3 unit on random lines
Yeah so again. You're betting a lotto line with "what if?" hopes. "What if TJ did EPO and it effects him so much he gets so tired Sandhagen gets a sub like Fluffy Hernandez did?!" Thats not how ballers shot callers operate.
Tbh everyone who takes this serious enough to bet or look into betting every event should be tracking. Not just so forum cunts who wanna rag on a noob (not you!) have to stfu, but for things like this. .33u is not a small amount. Tracking would give you an idea of how much is lost putting that much on these types of lines and only help you improve through assessment
He doesn't have to be a sub threat, he just has to know how to defend subs. And then when he starts sweating profusely, he just has to know how to defend subs at a half measure of whatever you're expecting Sand to throw up from bottom. If you genuinely think you've found a capping edge on this line, idk what to tell you. You could've come to me and I would've given you +1600 on Sandhagen sub attempts o1.5, nvm him finishing one.Meh, I'm assessing likelihoods and betting based on how I see them. TJ is a wrestler but nowhere near the sub threat of a Barao or Moraes so yeah I think if Corey rocks him it's possible he'd grab a sub if it's there.
As for tracking, I barely have time to watch tape and I'm not betting amounts that are significant to my life at all. I agree it's a good idea, just one that I can't find time to do.
He doesn't have to be a sub threat, he just has to know how to defend subs. And then when he starts sweating profusely, he just has to know how to defend subs at a half measure of whatever you're expecting Sand to throw up from bottom. If you genuinely think you've found a capping edge on this line, idk what to tell you. You could've come to me and I would've given you +1600 on Sandhagen sub attempts o1.5, nvm him finishing one.
Tape is for the pretentious, pompous, newer fans, or of course fights that involve someone you haven't seen much of, but it really means nothing otherwise dependent on how long you've watched MMA. Its why I get a good laugh at Paul "omg Chiasson hit this inside heel hook sweep on Reneau let me jot it down into my intrinsic notes to help Sherdog out" Varelans. I'm inarguably high level, and I don't tape a lot of things. All you have to do is program your mind to think of paths to victory and how you correlate likelihood compared to a line, not watch hours and hours of tape thinking you're getting some magical edge.
Smh @ not betting a significant amount. How am I supposed to make this place the Bugatti Boys Club if we don't up these unit sizes?
It should be a hobby to everyone unless/until you have 50k or more in liquid and years of consistent results. Gotta light that fire under your old ass and realize being a hobby shouldn't mean you shouldn't take it as serious as possible. Especially your main hobby, and more especially if it involves dollars. I have plenty of skill required hobbies and i'd be much more trash at all of them if I was passive on improving. And don't worry about limits, if gambling isn't legal in your state its only a matter of time.Well we've kinda talked the line to death haha so we can move on from that specific Convo.
As for taping, my memory isn't good enough to remember a lot of what I've seen (remember I'm old) so it does help me recall stuff from fighters that I've seen a bit of but can't remember all that well. I don't think it's always necessary or the thing to cling to, but it can be a useful tool.
And bro...my risk tolerance is damn low. I live in the Midwest in a big newer house and drive a luxury car. My wife and I make good $. I'm happy. Betting is a hobby to me. If you make monster amounts and can hop on private jets to see the fights and shit, fucking awesome for you. You've got it figured out then. I got limited awhile back, but I was really only betting hundreds then, not thousands. So for me, I'm fine being middle aged suburban dad now that can win or lose a few hundred or maybe a grand on a card and not care all. When I get to Vegas yeah I'll up the amount I play if I like any lines but these days that's maybe once a year, twice tops.
I dont hate it go for it. But i hope you didn't put it in a parley. Betting parleys last year for me have hurt me a in a way i prefer to bet singles only now. Either two singles.Sandhagen sub +1200, yep playing that for sure.
Its not hours of tape, its called ufcstats.He doesn't have to be a sub threat, he just has to know how to defend subs. And then when he starts sweating profusely, he just has to know how to defend subs at a half measure of whatever you're expecting Sand to throw up from bottom. If you genuinely think you've found a capping edge on this line, idk what to tell you. You could've come to me and I would've given you +1600 on Sandhagen sub attempts o1.5, nvm him finishing one.
Tape is for the pretentious, pompous, newer fans, or of course fights that involve someone you haven't seen much of, but it really means nothing otherwise dependent on how long you've watched MMA. Its why I get a good laugh at Paul "omg Chiasson hit this inside heel hook sweep on Reneau let me jot it down into my intrinsic notes to help Sherdog out" Varelans. I'm inarguably high level, and I don't tape a lot of things. All you have to do is program your mind to think of paths to victory and how you correlate likelihood compared to a line, not watch hours and hours of tape thinking you're getting some magical edge.
Smh @ not betting a significant amount. How am I supposed to make this place the Bugatti Boys Club if we don't up these unit sizes?