OK, lets do this!
My initial thoughts
WITHOUT freshly watched tape of both fighters of each bouts. I'm going to share my gold (sarcasm) with you, lovely lads.
Holloway v Orgeta screams PASS to me. Just from a betting perspective I would like to bet Ortega (IF he was bigger dog), dude is
insanely durable and he is in the fight until the final horn. You bet against him you pray every God you can think of and cross your fingers every god damn second is passed he won't do something absolutely unexpected and amazing to finish the fight and take your money away, because you didn't saw the same exact thing happening time after time before and still was dumb enough to bet against him.
Valentina is gonna make light work out of Jedrzejczyk yet again. Reasons:
Too big, too fast, too strong. Shevchenko is going to throw her around like a kid in the clinch. Her
core strength is insane, man. To have that control of opponents in the clinch and even @135, you gotta be VERY strong. Core strength is directly connected to punching power and to the ability to punch and kick a lot without tiring yourself out too easily.
Valentina backers worring she might lose close decision?
-> She is not losing a close decision, no way. She is absolutely gonna win with a wide decision at the minimum. She was much more active in her first fight @ 125 vs that brasilian bum. She is
much more athletic than Joanna. I love Jedrzejczyk, but she is
outgunned here big time. I know Val was in close decisions more than once @ 135, but she was not cutting hardly any weight there, walking around 137? Especially in her first 2-3 fights in UFC she was very small, I noticed her putting some good size when she fought Pena and Nunes in the rematch but still was smaller.
She won't let the judges rob her of another win, I'm telling you. She is gonna be active and she will score a lot.
Not with her striking but mainly in the clinch. Joanna have no hopes in the clinch with her, just too underpowered. The only thing I can think of Joanna possibly doing to better her chances is to change her style enterely. She has to use a lot,
a lot of kicks and frustrating in and out movements and long weapons like the jab, a ton of feints too. She need to be
way out of clinch range and never come close. 25 mins to never let Val grab her in a collar tie is so unlikely that it's insane. This whole thing about the style change is in the realm of dreams. It's never going to happen. Even if it happens, she still has negligible chances of actually winning like that.
Jerdzejczyk is too slow to go in and out, her thing is cardio, she is not dynamic type of fighter - too slow footed.
Gunnar Nelson is going to submit Cowboycerroliveira
They
are small chances brasilian cowboy finds his chin, but would not bet on that.
Nelson is more dynamic Cerrone with even more potent grappling and better wrestling. And did you saw how he looks now? God damn.
I have mixed feelings about Jimi Manuwa.
I like him as an underdog a lot. The odds on that fight were out for long time and I was mildly shocked he is the underdog. But I don't know about him... Just too lackadaisical sometimes. But he is bigger and equal if not better athlete than Santos. He has serviceable wrestling, can take Santos at will I think. I don't know about that fight, have to watch tape to refresh my memories. But picking Jimi for sure, I don't know about betting him, tho.
Eryk Anders v Elias Theodorou. I don't know how anybody can pick Anders here. Let alone bet him! But have to say -
I am not good at picking his fights... As usual when newcommer debuting I didn't watch much on his local scene or didn't put any weight in his wins there. So I picked and bet on Natal. Well, bad for me. But didn't learn my lesson, bet on him next 2 times v Maluko (nice) and lost fuck ton of money v Machida. When he lost to Machida I had
finally pretty good idea what he is capable of and what type of opponent he can beat. Was shocked he was so big favourite vs that scary faced guy and the fight was pretty much what I expected. Was absolutely no surprised he lost to Santos and was not surprised in the method that this happen.
Pretty boy Theodorou made Tavares work for his win. He is a winner, I can't say it better, he just finds a way to win.
Boring, ugly ass fighting style but he is a winner. His hands are trash, but Eryk is not Mayweather either. Eryk just can't strike, his posture is weird, don't have good footwork, he gets tired if he is forced to do more than he likes. And he usually do very little. 3 rounds of kicks and some wrestling from Theodorou is going to be suffcient enough to win. He has wins over people a lot better than Eryk.
Sorry, Elias haters.
Devin Clark is going to get absolutely smashed by Rakic. I like all of Rakic's game he is my boy @LHW, him with Dom Reyes are the best young prospects of this division IMO.