UFC Fight night Dawson vs Green PBP

[Stat_Collector]

This same argument has been rehashed over and over and over on this forum. I always find the "parlays are better!" and "parlays are a long term loser!" arguments to be weird. If you actually want to look at it purely from an objective mathematical standpoint...parlays don't add or take away any value. There's a psychological aspect to betting, so if Stat is able to stay more centered and is less likely to tilt because he risks less to win more, that matters. He may win less often, but when he does they are bigger hits. On the flipside, there can be more risk if you're spreading it out over multiple events, etc. Because of odds shifts, new information, etc. You can have 3 legs hit of a 4 leg parlay and then a few days before the final leg of your parlay you learn something that makes you wish you hadn't locked in the bet tied into the others that you've already won.

Basically, the short version is that there's good and bad about them. Which is true about most things.

yeah the multiple events stuff is a double edge sword, canceled fights take away value, or bad weight cuts, on the flip, i get early lines where lines move dramatically and i keep the value.

Another thing that Nick is missing out is that we all do parlays in one form or another. If you win a straight bet 1 week and you earn 1k and then you take the total 2k and make another straight bet. That is essentially a parlay , you just did it from a smaller pool in a longer time span.


I would rather evaluate 100 fighters in a single weekend and choose the best 3-6 best ones and bunch them up together now instead of waiting for future cards to scatter my winnings into isolated bets.

I also have nothing against straight bets. He was bragging about Cossio(who i mentioned in the bellator forum) and Cossio was losing 2 rnds down and came back from behind. That is in no way a bet i would feel proud to single bet, neither Aldrich or Bill did feel merited a single straight bet. All of those fights were between young strong fighters with equal or near skill level.

Leah McCourt was the only regret i had this weekend. She had youth and size and was a 240+ dog opening lines. That is the type of straight ML bets i make. The ones where you don't need to over explain or go to deep to validate.

 

[mkess101]

yeah the multiple events stuff is a double edge sword, canceled fights take away value, or bad weight cuts, on the flip, i get early lines where lines move dramatically and i keep the value.

Another thing that Nick is missing out is that we all do parlays in one form or another. If you win a straight bet 1 week and you earn 1k and then you take the total 2k and make another straight bet. That is essentially a parlay , you just did it from a smaller pool in a longer time span.


I would rather evaluate 100 fighters in a single weekend and choose the best 3-6 best ones and bunch them up together now instead of waiting for future cards to scatter my winnings into isolated bets.

I also have nothing against straight bets. He was bragging about Cossio(who i mentioned in the bellator forum) and Cossio was losing 2 rnds down and came back from behind. That is in no way a bet i would feel proud to single bet, neither Aldrich or Bill did feel merited a single straight bet. All of those fights were between young strong fighters with equal or near skill level.

Leah McCourt was the only regret i had this weekend. She ⁶ad youth and size and was a 240+ dog opening lines. That is the type of straight ML bets i make. The ones where you don't need to over explain or go to deep to validate.

In the end it's just whatever works for you imo. To me parlays aren't good or bad, they're just a different way to bet than making stand alone plays. I think the psychological aspect to betting gets overlooked too. For you, the feeling of hitting a good 4 leg parlay after putting in time to research might be more motivation to actually watch the tape. For someone else, not as much.

It's not one size fits all.

 

[Stat_Collector]

In the end it's just whatever works for you imo. To me parlays aren't good or bad, they're just a different way to bet than making stand alone plays. I think the psychological aspect to betting gets overlooked too. For you, the feeling of hitting a good 4 leg parlay after putting in time to research might be more motivation to actually watch the tape. For someone else, not as much.

It's not one size fits all.

its also betting limits. I’m an american who pays taxes on all my winnings. And i live in Florida that has very little options to choose from. Bovada was my go to place for a long time. they put so much restrictions on my account that i had to do prop parlays to earn 1k in winnings weekly. They would literally cap my wagers at 50$ props/ml etc

Bet online have also betting limits on regional mma 100-250 max depending on how early i make my wagers. For ufc main i get 1k limit and for most of the card it varies a few hundred bucks . And my target is always to wager to get passed 1k parlays basically allows me to bypass limit straight bets and wager over 1k with the condition that hit 2 or 3 other fights.

If i lived in a different country where gambling isn’t tax, and i can max bet over 1k, id never look at parlays as an option.

 

[mkess101]

its also betting limits. I’m an american who pays taxes on all my winnings. And i live in Florida that has very little options to choose from. Bovada was my go to place for a long time. they put so much restrictions on my account that i had to do prop parlays to earn 1k in winnings weekly. They would literally cap my wagers at 50$ props/ml etc

Bet online have also betting limits on regional mma 100-250 max depending on how early i make my wagers. For ufc main i get 1k limit and for most of the card it varies a few hundred bucks . And my target is always to wager to get passed 1k parlays basically allows me to bypass limit straight bets and wager over 1k with the condition that hit 2 or 3 other fights.

If i lived in a different country where gambling isn’t tax, and i can max bet over 1k, id never look at parlays as an option.

Good points.

 

[BigNick100]

This same argument has been rehashed over and over and over on this forum. I always find the "parlays are better!" and "parlays are a long term loser!" arguments to be weird. If you actually want to look at it purely from an objective mathematical standpoint...parlays don't add or take away any value. There's a psychological aspect to betting, so if Stat is able to stay more centered and is less likely to tilt because he risks less to win more, that matters. He may win less often, but when he does they are bigger hits. On the flipside, there can be more risk if you're spreading it out over multiple events, etc. Because of odds shifts, new information, etc. You can have 3 legs hit of a 4 leg parlay and then a few days before the final leg of your parlay you learn something that makes you wish you hadn't locked in the bet tied into the others that you've already won.

Basically, the short version is that there's good and bad about them. Which is true about most things.

Come on man, this makes zero sense. Parlays are losing EV unless you get lucky. Can you get lucky and hit a big one? Sure, but most the time you are losing money.

what you don’t see, is when he posts a parlay that’s a winner, he has 10-20 parlays behind that are losers.

any true gambling person who takes it serious for years will tell you parlays are for fun, but to make it your main betting style, and only doing parlays is silly.

yes I have been betting MMA for 8 years, tracked every single bet including parlays for the last 4 years so I can tell you first hand.

This forum wasn’t what it use to be, by a long mile, but remember Sadisitc? If he was around he would tell ya the same thing, trust me

 

[BigNick100]

Mate do whatever makes you happy. Im not fixing what isn't broken. Ive been here for 3 years and still hitting bets. ppl like you have been coming on here for years and saying the same shit you said. they all stopped posting and quit. Lets see if you're still around in 3 years.

I’ve been around for 8 years lmao, but this place has gone downhill pretty badly in the last few years.

I also track every single bet on a spreadsheet, all my props plays and parlays.

you”re actually talking to one of the small percentages of people that actually make profit long term betting mma.

sure don’t believe me, but lots of what you said doenst make sense and you are giving out bad advice Imo.

To each their own, but I can tell when someone actually know what they talking about when it comes to betting.

trust me, I use to do parlays all the time as well. For a good while. Thankfully I got good advice and now been killing it long term since i stopped doing parlays.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I’ve been around for 8 years lmao, but this place has gone downhill pretty badly in the last few years.

I also track every single bet on a spreadsheet, all my props plays and parlays.

you”re actually talking to one of the small percentages of people that actually make profit long term betting mma.

sure don’t believe me, but lots of what you said doenst make sense and you are giving out bad advice Imo.

To each their own, but I can tell when someone actually know what they talking about when it comes to betting.

trust me, I use to do parlays all the time as well. For a good while. Thankfully I got good advice and now been killing it long term since i stopped doing parlays.

you're account date dont mean you were here that long on betting forum, otherwise i can say i was here betting for 15 years. I visit here often and have never seen you post before. Post a bunch of slips first and make a name here first before you criticize a regular.

I wasn't giving out advice, you asked me first and brought up the subject and told me parlays are bad, and i replied why i play them. And I told you i do both straights if the odds are juicy enough.

It's nothing to do with what I'm saying, people who know me here know I've hit complete dynamite tickets over 22k in a single night with as little as a 50$ wager.

There is a reason why i have betting limits applied to my account. do you know why?

Because at one point i use to do either straight bets or parlay 2 favorites and i would consistently win 5k weekly for a few weeks. They figured out how good i was and they shut down my ability to straight bets past 300$ for money lines, for parlays the same, and for prop bets and prop parlays its down to 33-50$




As I explained above. You can only play straight betting for so long , and betting sites will eventually punish you for it.

I'm not playing parlays because i really want to. It's because i'm restricted by geography, good betting sites and being too good and having an edge.

Parlays are the only way i can bypass big payouts. It's a lot harder and requires me to be on my A game, and i get enjoyment out of hitting them because i believe it makes me better.


This is my brothers account btw, this is what everyone else gets to bet for .



Do you even pay gambling taxes where you're from?

-sincerely long-term successful player.

 

[mkess101]

Come on man, this makes zero sense. Parlays are losing EV unless you get lucky. Can you get lucky and hit a big one? Sure, but most the time you are losing money.

what you don’t see, is when he posts a parlay that’s a winner, he has 10-20 parlays behind that are losers.

any true gambling person who takes it serious for years will tell you parlays are for fun, but to make it your main betting style, and only doing parlays is silly.

yes I have been betting MMA for 8 years, tracked every single bet including parlays for the last 4 years so I can tell you first hand.

This forum wasn’t what it use to be, by a long mile, but remember Sadisitc? If he was around he would tell ya the same thing, trust me

Yes I remember Sadistic. I was here way before him, I remember everyone that's been on this forum. Literally the only person here before me is @Oblivian and I think maybe @Jae Gibbz was posting about MMA betting as long as I have. Anyway, not really the point.

What I'm saying is the math is the math.

If you bet a -180 favorite straight and win, then roll the winnings and bet that all on a -120 favorite and win, your winnings are EXACTLY what they are if you parlay those two. That doesn't mean you always should, I don't always do it. Hell, probably most of the time I'd bet them straight. And of course if your BR management style is to pull back winnings then bet the same $100 again, you'd win less if you won both but mitigate your losses if you went 1-1. The math is...the math.

I don't advocate doing only parlays. I don't care though if someone else bets that way and is actually profitable to tell that person they are doing it wrong.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Yes I remember Sadistic. I was here way before him, I remember everyone that's been on this forum. Literally the only person here before me is @Oblivian and I think maybe @Jae Gibbz was posting about MMA betting as long as I have. Anyway, not really the point.

What I'm saying is the math is the math.

If you bet a -180 favorite straight and win, then roll the winnings and bet that all on a -120 favorite and win, your winnings are EXACTLY what they are if you parlay those two. That doesn't mean you always should, I don't always do it. Hell, probably most of the time I'd bet them straight. And of course if your BR management style is to pull back winnings then bet the same $100 again, you'd win less if you won both but mitigate your losses if you went 1-1. The math is...the math.

I don't advocate doing only parlays. I don't care though if someone else bets that way and is actually profitable to tell that person they are doing it wrong.

Remember we had a thread in the heavies before EZ ever created this sub forum? Man, time flies

 

[mkess101]

Remember we had a thread in the heavies before EZ ever created this sub forum? Man, time flies

Damn right. @Oblivian was running that shit!

 

[Oblivian]

Ironically, I started these threads because of people saying you can't do something in MMA betting. The main accusation then was "you can't win betting every fight" as well as the parlay claim. At this point with the large roster, I still bet pretty much every fight and have a couple parlays (doubles only) each event. My ROI isn't what it used to be, but I've only deposited three times and I've been gambling for 13 years. First deposit was Bovada, second was 5dimes (after I pulled money from Bovada), and last was back to Bovada after the 5dimes incident. So literally, only once I have put in money from my pocket. You can gamble several different ways and make money. What it boils down to is that you know more than the MMA public. I don't miss an event and I've been this way for 15+ years. I should know more than the public, so as long as I'm not a total dumbass, I should be able to gamble and make money. It's getting much tougher with the large roster now, especially for someone who does not "study tape".

 

[Stat_Collector]

you're account date dont mean you were here that long on betting forum, otherwise i can say i was here betting for 15 years. I visit here often and have never seen you post before. Post a bunch of slips first and make a name here first before you criticize a regular.

I wasn't giving out advice, you asked me first and brought up the subject and told me parlays are bad, and i replied why i play them. And I told you i do both straights if the odds are juicy enough.

It's nothing to do with what I'm saying, people who know me here know I've hit complete dynamite tickets over 22k in a single night with as little as a 50$ wager.

There is a reason why i have betting limits applied to my account. do you know why?

Because at one point i use to do either straight bets or parlay 2 favorites and i would consistently win 5k weekly for a few weeks. They figured out how good i was and they shut down my ability to straight bets past 300$ for money lines, for parlays the same, and for prop bets and prop parlays its down to 33-50$

View attachment 1005747


As I explained above. You can only play straight betting for so long , and betting sites will eventually punish you for it.

I'm not playing parlays because i really want to. It's because i'm restricted by geography, good betting sites and being too good and having an edge.

Parlays are the only way i can bypass big payouts. It's a lot harder and requires me to be on my A game, and i get enjoyment out of hitting them because i believe it makes me better.


This is my brothers account btw, this is what everyone else gets to bet for .

View attachment 1005748

Do you even pay gambling taxes where you're from?

-sincerely long-term successful player.

i should have bet on edson with my bros account . that image looks really nice now lol

 

[Georges Hefner]

I’ve been around for 8 years lmao, but this place has gone downhill pretty badly in the last few years.

I also track every single bet on a spreadsheet, all my props plays and parlays.

you”re actually talking to one of the small percentages of people that actually make profit long term betting mma.

sure don’t believe me, but lots of what you said doenst make sense and you are giving out bad advice Imo.

To each their own, but I can tell when someone actually know what they talking about when it comes to betting.

trust me, I use to do parlays all the time as well. For a good while. Thankfully I got good advice and now been killing it long term since i stopped doing parlays.

You got bullied by everyone here. It’s my turn now. Come back loser, we are not finished yet

 

[BigNick100]

You got bullied by everyone here. It’s my turn now. Come back loser, we are not finished yet

what shit are you talking, bullied lol..a true long term bettor knows

 

[BigNick100]

you're account date dont mean you were here that long on betting forum, otherwise i can say i was here betting for 15 years. I visit here often and have never seen you post before. Post a bunch of slips first and make a name here first before you criticize a regular.

I wasn't giving out advice, you asked me first and brought up the subject and told me parlays are bad, and i replied why i play them. And I told you i do both straights if the odds are juicy enough.

It's nothing to do with what I'm saying, people who know me here know I've hit complete dynamite tickets over 22k in a single night with as little as a 50$ wager.

There is a reason why i have betting limits applied to my account. do you know why?

Because at one point i use to do either straight bets or parlay 2 favorites and i would consistently win 5k weekly for a few weeks. They figured out how good i was and they shut down my ability to straight bets past 300$ for money lines, for parlays the same, and for prop bets and prop parlays its down to 33-50$

View attachment 1005747


As I explained above. You can only play straight betting for so long , and betting sites will eventually punish you for it.

I'm not playing parlays because i really want to. It's because i'm restricted by geography, good betting sites and being too good and having an edge.

Parlays are the only way i can bypass big payouts. It's a lot harder and requires me to be on my A game, and i get enjoyment out of hitting them because i believe it makes me better.


This is my brothers account btw, this is what everyone else gets to bet for .

View attachment 1005748

Do you even pay gambling taxes where you're from?

-sincerely long-term successful player.

and thats why you must use as many sites as you can, mix bets around so you dont get limited. but thats bound to happen. Yes i also open multiple accounts on families names to get around it as well. I also pay taxes depending, I cash out my sites in btc. depending on if I can sell that btc on the black market or not, I sell it and transfer it to my US accounts and pay tax on it.

Btw, anyone who has been here long enough will tell ya I use to post here all the time and give predictions on bets. This site isnt a shell of what it use to be, and most of the good posters have left sherdog. Thats also facts.

Do track your bets on a excel spread sheet? There is a mma betting excel that is out there you can start with. You can add as many types of bets to the spreadsheet, weight classes.

I track all my bets, have ml odds in different sections. -101 to -150 range, -151 to -200. same with dogs, +101 to 150. Same with all the props, gtd, itd, sub, tko, etc.

I track all my straight bets. I track doubles. I track triples. I also track any legs over 3 as multi long bets. I can tell you what my ROI is on all of those and all the prop bets.


I track every single thing. Whats your ROI?

How many bets you want me to post? I hit dogs like crazy the last couple weeks. I went 3-0 on KSW bets, all dogs. I can post anything bro, just let me know. Hit barboza pre, and nice live odds. I bet Vivi as a dog. I bet Martinez as well.

Also, how can you tell me this is true .

" If you win a straight bet 1 week and you earn 1k and then you take the total 2k and make another straight bet. That is essentially a parlay , you just did it from a smaller pool in a longer time span".

If you use units, why you betting 1k that won you 2k total and then turning that 2k on the next bet? Risk management and using unti sizes are key to long term success. All depends on unit sizes.

 

[Stat_Collector]

and thats why you must use as many sites as you can, mix bets around so you dont get limited. but thats bound to happen. Yes i also open multiple accounts on families names to get around it as well. I also pay taxes depending, I cash out my sites in btc. depending on if I can sell that btc on the black market or not, I sell it and transfer it to my US accounts and pay tax on it.

Btw, anyone who has been here long enough will tell ya I use to post here all the time and give predictions on bets. This site isnt a shell of what it use to be, and most of the good posters have left sherdog. Thats also facts.

Do track your bets on a excel spread sheet? There is a mma betting excel that is out there you can start with. You can add as many types of bets to the spreadsheet, weight classes.

I track all my bets, have ml odds in different sections. -101 to -150 range, -151 to -200. same with dogs, +101 to 150. Same with all the props, gtd, itd, sub, tko, etc.

I track all my straight bets. I track doubles. I track triples. I also track any legs over 3 as multi long bets. I can tell you what my ROI is on all of those and all the prop bets.


I track every single thing. Whats your ROI?

How many bets you want me to post? I hit dogs like crazy the last couple weeks. I went 3-0 on KSW bets, all dogs. I can post anything bro, just let me know. Hit barboza pre, and nice live odds. I bet Vivi as a dog. I bet Martinez as well.

Also, how can you tell me this is true .

" If you win a straight bet 1 week and you earn 1k and then you take the total 2k and make another straight bet. That is essentially a parlay , you just did it from a smaller pool in a longer time span".

If you use units, why you betting 1k that won you 2k total and then turning that 2k on the next bet? Risk management and using unti sizes are key to long term success. All depends on unit sizes.

That is the account balance.



That is all bank deposits. Not including around 8-9k in account balance in bet sites .
I dont get why you think i lied. Like dude its not like mma is the hardest sport to guess right. My older sister can make a parlay and win. She has called some crazy predictions just by looking at a profile pic and telling me who she believes is more intimidating and gives off more confident energy. Mma is not like any other sport where you have so many nuances and variables , like those of team sport.

And as i said, i also do straight bets. im not against it. i think you should become a well rounded player and include parlays into your game. Low sprinkle 1/3 unit parlays .

 

[Stat_Collector]

and thats why you must use as many sites as you can, mix bets around so you dont get limited. but thats bound to happen. Yes i also open multiple accounts on families names to get around it as well. I also pay taxes depending, I cash out my sites in btc. depending on if I can sell that btc on the black market or not, I sell it and transfer it to my US accounts and pay tax on it.

Btw, anyone who has been here long enough will tell ya I use to post here all the time and give predictions on bets. This site isnt a shell of what it use to be, and most of the good posters have left sherdog. Thats also facts.

Do track your bets on a excel spread sheet? There is a mma betting excel that is out there you can start with. You can add as many types of bets to the spreadsheet, weight classes.

I track all my bets, have ml odds in different sections. -101 to -150 range, -151 to -200. same with dogs, +101 to 150. Same with all the props, gtd, itd, sub, tko, etc.

I track all my straight bets. I track doubles. I track triples. I also track any legs over 3 as multi long bets. I can tell you what my ROI is on all of those and all the prop bets.


I track every single thing. Whats your ROI?

How many bets you want me to post? I hit dogs like crazy the last couple weeks. I went 3-0 on KSW bets, all dogs. I can post anything bro, just let me know. Hit barboza pre, and nice live odds. I bet Vivi as a dog. I bet Martinez as well.

Also, how can you tell me this is true .

" If you win a straight bet 1 week and you earn 1k and then you take the total 2k and make another straight bet. That is essentially a parlay , you just did it from a smaller pool in a longer time span".

If you use units, why you betting 1k that won you 2k total and then turning that 2k on the next bet? Risk management and using unti sizes are key to long term success. All depends on unit sizes.

and as far as unit sizes. even if you scatter your bets across many small bets. it's the equal of making multiple two team parlays.

anytime i bet straight, and no parlay, it's because i saw no other bet that week that felt safe. I don't mind parlaying two dogs, if i'm going to bet my winning on the next leg anyways.

 

[BigNick100]

View attachment 1007050

That is the account balance.

View attachment 1007051

That is all bank deposits. Not including around 8-9k in account balance in bet sites .
I dont get why you think i lied. Like dude its not like mma is the hardest sport to guess right. My older sister can make a parlay and win. She has called some crazy predictions just by looking at a profile pic and telling me who she believes is more intimidating and gives off more confident energy. Mma is not like any other sport where you have so many nuances and variables , like those of team sport.

And as i said, i also do straight bets. im not against it. i think you should become a well rounded player and include parlays into your game. Low sprinkle 1/3 unit parlays .

ok, so clearly you dont know shit lol. Your sister? lmao come on. You said nothing, posted some numbers on a sheet and showed a parlay from last year that Im not sure is even yours lol..and how much money has you lost all together doing parlays over and over? You couldnt even tell me your ROI lol.

Honestly, you sound just like someone that was exposed as a big fraud on youtube. Same way of talking too lol..not saying its you, but sounds very similar.

I rest my case that sherdog has gone to shit.

 

[Stat_Collector]

ok, so clearly you dont know shit lol. Your sister? lmao come on. You said nothing, posted some numbers on a sheet and showed a parlay from last year that Im not sure is even yours lol..and how much money has you lost all together doing parlays over and over? You couldnt even tell me your ROI lol.

Honestly, you sound just like someone that was exposed as a big fraud on youtube. Same way of talking too lol..not saying its you, but sounds very similar.

I rest my case that sherdog has gone to shit.

this is just autism at this point. you will double down on your retardation. its like i gave you more credit to have a ounce of humility and admit you were wrong .

why would i have my spreadsheet from this year when i haven’t filed for taxes yet?

Roi is not something listed on any gambling site. and second you make it seem like i’m convincing you I made a million dollars and i’m trying to defraud people. i’m not a tout and i don’t sell crap here. i give info here for free and users here can attest i’ve made them money.

I’ve literally posted free money threads that all panned out successfully. at least 3x

you keep trying to also make it seem like i instigated the conversation. you attacked me and now asking about your own stubs, like i ever gave a shit about you. i never called you out. you seem very insecure with yourself. You took advice 3 years ago, and i kept moving and improving my game. you probably have never had a successful year of profit and you wanna project your own skill level onto someone you know is better than you. that is about as much time you get from me. i can honestly say you are the one and only person i need to block. nothing of worth comes from you.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

People doubting @BigNick100 smh

I’ll ad my two cents as far as parlays

a lot of people don’t know how to do it successfully long term, or even understand how a multiplier works That being said there are many ways to be profitable and it can be done