UFC Fight Night - Sandhagen vs Dillashaw- Offical discussion

[mkess101]

I dont hate it go for it. But i hope you didn't put it in a parley. Betting parleys last year for me have hurt me a in a way i prefer to bet singles only now. Either two singles.

No way would I parlay a longer shit like this. Hitting a prop at these odds only to get notho because the other part of the parlay missed? No way.

 

[mkess101]

It should be a hobby to everyone unless/until you have 50k or more in liquid and years of consistent results. Gotta light that fire under your old ass and realize being a hobby shouldn't mean you shouldn't take it as serious as possible. Especially your main hobby, and more especially if it involves dollars. I have plenty of skill required hobbies and i'd be much more trash at all of them if I was passive on improving. And don't worry about limits, if gambling isn't legal in your state its only a matter of time.

All i'm trying to do is help your kids never have to work via big money units placed on amazing bets like Aspen Ladd cause u take this game as serious as parenting

Well...to be fair golf is my main hobby now.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Well...to be fair golf is my main hobby now.

You're here everyday. Unless you're playing golf everyday is that really fair to say? lol

 

[Stat_Collector]

No. PretentiousPaulVarelans literally talked about hours of tape and intrinsic notes. But good job not actually reading his nonsense.

No point debating how AMAZING Ladd was anymore when it goes nowhere without her smeshing Macy "pulled out cause i'm scared" Chiasson.

I'm not replacing Ladd. "Replacing" makes no sense in this game. You either like a bet or you don't.

Which I stated why there so many reasons why it's not a good pick,that you never acknowledge to comment on her poor strk defense and her injuries and long lay off. Acl surgery is one of the worst athlete injuries . Would have like to have seen how this fight had gone.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Which I stated why there so many reasons why it's not a good pick,that you never acknowledge to comment on her poor strk defense and her injuries and long lay off. Acl surgery is one of the worst athlete injuries . Would have like to have seen how this fight had gone.

Bro the fight is off cause Chiasson pulled out via fright and NOW you wanna debate this? lol I went over my reasons, why the hell would I do it again when the fight isn't happening? lol

 

[Brockstar]

Well I already said TJ in a 5 round fight with no EPO off a long layoff could very potentially get really tired and have referenced him shooting a sloppy TD and leaving his neck exposed. So yeah, I do think that's one potential path to it hitting.

I've made $ over the years betting MMA, you can believe that or not. Never felt the need to track 3rd party because it's just extra time invested, but I do see the value of doing it for someone who's extremely serious and betting to make a living.

That’s not crazy talk. I’ll peek.

 

[mkess101]

You're here everyday. Unless you're playing golf everyday is that really fair to say? lol

Well yeah but I'm here for maybe 20 minutes on and off per day. I play golf 3 times a week maybe and that takes 4 hours.

Let me put it this way...if I had to give up golf or Sherdog, I'd miss you guys.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

With only 11 fights.
There might only two underdogs coming out of this fight card.
Surprisingly everyone made weight.

I want to believe and trust Heinisch but i just cant trust him on a fight card like this i know in a interview he said he plans to Ko Imavov.

We shall see.
As i said before we shall see what happens on the main event.
I do think Cory gets it done ITD is problary the way the go at it.
But if the old fighting TJ gets back the fight will go to dec for either one.

 

[Ballsaque]

Its not hours of tape, its called ufcstats.

you can see revesals. Ctrl time etc.

aspen ladd is not a good pick. She admitted she had to relearn everything after knee surgery, she absorbs to many strikes in every fight ,avg 5 mins ctrl time and hasn’t fought since 2019. If you had three options to play, you either pass on Aspen or go With Macy , picking aspen at -180 to -200 is the square pick.

There are safer picks in this card that you could replace lad with. While im not high on macy ‘this is still a close competetive fight with no finish , but a close decision.

I really never understood why you like aspen so much, her striking is below basic and she has no colligiate wrestling background. I mean she could win , but by how dominant a performance?

Lol

 

[johno]

What? He's super active off his back. Subbed Batista with an armbar. And TJ off the EPO. Easily could see him slow down late and get sloppy and leave his neck out there on a half assed TD attempt if he's getting pieced up standing.

You're really shitting on a very small stab at a +1200 prop LOL? I mean, it's inherently unlikely to hit at these odds so I guess it's an easy "I told you so" for you when it doesn't...

Damn right man. Could definitely see tj shooting a desperation take down when the stand up isn't going well for him

 

[Siver!]

I'm thinking Sandhagen beats TJ inside the distance. That only leaves two possible options; I really don't think a Sandhagen sub is out of the question. The likely outcome if Sandhagen does win ITD is a (T)KO, clearly; but it's not THAT easy to put TJ's lights out. If the finish is a product of TJ tiring but he remains durable, which sounds reasonable, then the chances of a submission increase IMO.

Do I think +1200 is good value? Probably not - I won't be betting it - but would I tell someone they absolutely shouldn't bet that line? No. It's not THAT unlikely.

 

[Siver!]

He doesn't have to be a sub threat, he just has to know how to defend subs. And then when he starts sweating profusely, he just has to know how to defend subs at a half measure of whatever you're expecting Sand to throw up from bottom. If you genuinely think you've found a capping edge on this line, idk what to tell you. You could've come to me and I would've given you +1600 on Sandhagen sub attempts o1.5, nvm him finishing one.

Tape is for the pretentious, pompous, newer fans, or of course fights that involve someone you haven't seen much of, but it really means nothing otherwise dependent on how long you've watched MMA. Its why I get a good laugh at Paul "omg Chiasson hit this inside heel hook sweep on Reneau let me jot it down into my intrinsic notes to help Sherdog out" Varelans. I'm inarguably high level, and I don't tape a lot of things. All you have to do is program your mind to think of paths to victory and how you correlate likelihood compared to a line, not watch hours and hours of tape thinking you're getting some magical edge.

Smh @ not betting a significant amount. How am I supposed to make this place the Bugatti Boys Club if we don't up these unit sizes?

Honestly, this post is nonsense.

How is watching tape 'pretentious or pompous'? Like anybody has a perfect memory of every fight. What are you working on, the 'feel' of the 'memory' you had of previous fights? This isn't a team sport where the number of participant teams is limited to 20 or so. Nobody is having anything like perfect recall of all these fighters.

All I can think is you're only betting a tiny percentage of fights/fighters to be able to take such an attitude. Cool. But that's not always where value lies, and value can often lie in double checking and cross referencing your original take. You don't have to tape every single fight, naturally; but there's always going to be one where you think the line is off enough to want to double check.

But your criticism of the Paul Varelans guy for writing long posts about a particular fight is rendered redundant when you spew so much irrelevant crap in endless numbers of posts that have nothing to do with the fight/fights. You've posted maybe ten times in this thread about the same point about TJ/Cory that there can only be one person wasting their own efforts in pretentious pursuits.

And just to make sure this post doesn't go down the 'DogsAndKisses' route of utter irrelevance, I'm going to pick Belbita over Goldy based on the fact it's probably going to be a stand up fight and Belbita is the more technical fighter. The fact it's a pick 'em, that should offer some value.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Added fdns rd 3 -170 for the costa/yanez fight.

so now I’m on yanez ml, yanez rd 1 ko, yanez ko, under 1.5 and fdngtd

like this fdngtd bet a lot, got it at -220

 

[Stat_Collector]

Wrestling edge? When has he displayed good wrestling in the UFC lol. Jordan is the one with a wrestling background and actually using it in fights

Both wrestled hs, a junior title hardly makes up for it. Mickey has used his takedowns successfully and submitted his opponents , submitting other grapplers and transitioning from takedown to passing guard is a skill in itself. The added bjj credentials makes Gall a better wrestler. He has been grappling far more in general . Bjj tournaments have lots of wrestling in them. Example Naga world championships starts from the feet and has takedowns in them.

 

[BigSteve]

I notice you couldn't give me specific examples. Do you watch tape? Not trying to be rude, just what I'm noticing from your comments.

BJJ tournaments are all well and good, I do them my self and I have horrendous wrestling lol. I just pull guard.
Have you actually seen Gall use good wrestling? From the tape that I have watched, he has horrendous wrestling. He will shoot an opportunistic double occasionally, which to me is like closing your eyes and landing an overhand right.

Iv seen him struggle with wrestling against Salim, struggle to takedown Brown. I have also seen him dominated in the wrestling and grappling by Perry and Diego Sanchez. On the other hand iv seen Williams takedown both Ramazan and Caron on the contender series. I have also seen him get up straight away against Imamov who has way better takedowns than Gall, and then sprawl the attempts later on while gassed. Gall mostly goes for opportunistic back takes and scrambles. Just my 2 cents

 

[ExitLUPin]

Got the jitters and cashed out of my large Brendan Allen bet. Between the article that came out about him considering retiring (at 25!) before his last fight against Roberson, the fact that he seems to have had some trouble with the weight cut (185.5 but really took his time about it), and the sheer number of posters and outlets thinking Soriano takes this one, I'm less sure than I was.

Still going to put a small bet on him just for the sake of fun.

Soriano at even odds feels like free money lol

 

[Thesnake101]

I notice you couldn't give me specific examples. Do you watch tape? Not trying to be rude, just what I'm noticing from your comments.

BJJ tournaments are all well and good, I do them my self and I have horrendous wrestling lol. I just pull guard.
Have you actually seen Gall use good wrestling? From the tape that I have watched, he has horrendous wrestling. He will shoot an opportunistic double occasionally, which to me is like closing your eyes and landing an overhand right.

Iv seen him struggle with wrestling against Salim, struggle to takedown Brown. I have also seen him dominated in the wrestling and grappling by Perry and Diego Sanchez. On the other hand iv seen Williams takedown both Ramazan and Caron on the contender series. I have also seen him get up straight away against Imamov who has way better takedowns than Gall, and then sprawl the attempts later on while gassed. Gall mostly goes for opportunistic back takes and scrambles. Just my 2 cents

You took the words right out of my fucking face. Williams best spots have seen him take it to bigger guys than Gall while keeping the fight where he wants it, and I think he's got David Terrell in his corner so I can't say I'm too worried about what Gall might do to him on the mat.

If Gall beats Jordan I'll engage in copious amounts of cbt.

 

[Macaque]

If Gall beats Jordan I'll engage in copious amounts of cbt.

Ayo

 

[BigSteve]

Ayo

He just jinxed both of us lol

 

[Stat_Collector]

I notice you couldn't give me specific examples. Do you watch tape? Not trying to be rude, just what I'm noticing from your comments.

BJJ tournaments are all well and good, I do them my self and I have horrendous wrestling lol. I just pull guard.
Have you actually seen Gall use good wrestling? From the tape that I have watched, he has horrendous wrestling. He will shoot an opportunistic double occasionally, which to me is like closing your eyes and landing an overhand right.

Iv seen him struggle with wrestling against Salim, struggle to takedown Brown. I have also seen him dominated in the wrestling and grappling by Perry and Diego Sanchez. On the other hand iv seen Williams takedown both Ramazan and Caron on the contender series. I have also seen him get up straight away against Imamov who has way better takedowns than Gall, and then sprawl the attempts later on while gassed. Gall mostly goes for opportunistic back takes and scrambles. Just my 2 cents

i think his best takedowns (Gall) are his single legs. Referencing Sage, and Sullivan. I guess I'm looking at this from the perspective of: you got to lower level fighters with similar records. One fought in the ufc multiple times, and has several decent wins vs a guy who is 2-2 , I'm not sold on Gall i feel maybe he is a 50/50 bet but at 160+ i'm going to just play him in a hell mary parlay , or watch the live bet into the third round and see if Jordan's stamina begins to fail him.

I can see Jordan lighting him up on feet. But gall showed toughness in the Perry fight, so he could at least go the distance.

But if you pick Jordan , I understand 100% why, its a good bet.