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Man this thread has been exhausting to catch up on.
Over 1,5 and 2,5 are good bets in the ME,the more I thought about it,the better it seemed.Two tehnical bantams,those fights usually last longer.Probably checking and figuering each other at the begining.TJ may be more cautious than usual and thus harder too KO and if he gets Cory down that gonna lose some time to. O 2,5 at 2,00 is a solid bet.Heinisch is my biggest play on this card.
O2.5 in that fight is a good parlay piece too.
Eubanks should win relatively easily, but I don't like her -400 price tag. +150 ITD is a better play.
Cory probably puts TJ out, I think I'm going to play Dillishaw +175/Cory KO +160.
If this fight goes to decision, I think TJ wins. I see him throwing a few leg kicks, some jabs, and taking Sandhagen down and just laying on top of him.
But there's a good chance that in one of the later rounds, Cory catches him in the beginning of the round during an entry and puts him out.
Those weirdos do it because they charge people money for their picks, the better ROI the more buyers, which is hilarious and just tasteless when you are misleading potential buyers with your numbers.OK that just makes them weirdos but you still have third party tracked results and statistics that let you factually know if they're good or not and what level they're on.
Yea in my opinion Gall has 0 decent wins, as I don't consider Sullivan, Salim or Sage UFC lvl. I will be a lil nervous in that first round before Gall gasses as he will be throwing like a wild man, and Williams is hittable, even though he does have an insane chin. But over the 3 rounds Gall will have keep spamming takedowns, and he doesn't have the cardio to do it
I am well aware of that Diego situation.
Regardless, Gall noticeably slowed down in the Perry and the Salim fight. Perry fight was like halfway through the second. He just couldn't handle the pressure of Perry and seemed to flinch and run away from punches. I think it might just be the nerves or how he handles himself in there rather than cardio. He doesn't like getting punched either. I was telling people Perry would ragdoll Gall on the ground. It seems like every time he fights people are under this impression that if he gets you to the ground it's over lol.
Salim was a super low-level sloppy fight. Not UFC lvl at all. He has Salims back multiple times and would just hold on, struggle to get hooks in or get reversed.
Anyway im done talking about that jobber lol. I got 3u on Williams so if he loses il be losing more than just a few arguments.
Gall's cardio really only looked bad vs Diego and that was due to him having kidney failure before the fight. He was hospitalized for like a week after that fight because of it.
Even in his losses to Brown and Perry it really wasn't cardio that was his issue. It looked like he was just too content to play guard vs Brown, and too weak physically to get out from underneath Perry. The Perry fight was super bizarre because Gall actually seemed to get the better of it standing while Perry dominated the grappling.
I still think Williams is the far slicker striker and should get the better of the exchanges. Gall is tough as hell though and willing to be in a firefight. He's also a sub threat if he gets to a good position.
Fight is a hard pass imo.
I have a hard time agreeing Jordan Ml is a hard pass at -165 when Sandhagen is a play at -170.
I know different fights at etc, but I personally think Sandhagen at around -125 is more a play. -170 and def -200 is too high imo.
How much are you actually putting into Tj looking slower at age 35 and off EPO? I know it’s something to speculate about but maybe you’re putting too much stock into it.
Let says before TJ went to 125 to face CEJ, he faced Sandhagen then what would you line the match up at?
I know Sand has improved in two years too but style wise, beating Frankie and Marlon recently still doesn’t mean he should be this big of a favorite to me.
Some really interesting fights and lines.
Playing TJ at the current price is a must. Too many unknowns. Sandhagen has shown tons of holes. Could be a quick finish for either, dominant decision for either, or a fight of the year.
Phillips itd at +300 makes sense to me. Paiva has struggled with 125ers.
Minner is right side at current price. Elkins faded badly against Landwehr and Garagorri. Small hedge on Elkins +3.5pts at -145.
Barber/Maverick line is priced about right. Barber dominated Robertson more than Maverick did.
I bet Yanez at the -170 opener so I'm laughing.
Allen/Soriano is what being an MMA fan is all about. Playing Allen +1200 tko because it's a live outcome.
Imavov/Heinisch should be close. Dog is right side.
Williams/Gall... I will lose it if Gall pulls this off. Gall has typically folded badly when he can't outgrapple his opponents. He actually showed a good mixup in gameplan his last two fights, outstriking Touahri, and arguably outstriking. Perry. But Gall just gets eaten alive by well rounded guys who mix in takedowns. In his last 2/3 Williams has lost two close fights to two studs, and a brutal KO over a top 185'er.
Arce/Ewell... no real lean. Arce looked like a future champion against Ige but has since disappointed. Line is priced about right. Playing Arce -3.5pts at +140, even though I'm expecting a close fight.
Reed/Eubanks... watched zero tape on Reed. Will happily play +330 against a 36 year old woman.
Belbita/Goldy... only a true degenerate would put money on this fight. However, Belbita has only gone to decision 5 times in 19 fights. The itd line is +215.
I like TJ at this price despite favoring Cory. I don't like betting on props but TJ sub is like +1200.Playing TJ at the current price is a must. Too many unknowns. Sandhagen has shown tons of holes. Could be a quick finish for either, dominant decision for either, or a fight of the year.
What are Sandhagen's holes? I know his TDD isn't great, but I'm unsure of anything else. Genuinely asking btw lolSome really interesting fights and lines.
Playing TJ at the current price is a must. Too many unknowns. Sandhagen has shown tons of holes. Could be a quick finish for either, dominant decision for either, or a fight of the year.
Phillips itd at +300 makes sense to me. Paiva has struggled with 125ers.
Minner is right side at current price. Elkins faded badly against Landwehr and Garagorri. Small hedge on Elkins +3.5pts at -145.
Barber/Maverick line is priced about right. Barber dominated Robertson more than Maverick did.
I bet Yanez at the -170 opener so I'm laughing.
Allen/Soriano is what being an MMA fan is all about. Playing Allen +1200 tko because it's a live outcome.
Imavov/Heinisch should be close. Dog is right side.
Williams/Gall... I will lose it if Gall pulls this off. Gall has typically folded badly when he can't outgrapple his opponents. He actually showed a good mixup in gameplan his last two fights, outstriking Touahri, and arguably outstriking. Perry. But Gall just gets eaten alive by well rounded guys who mix in takedowns. In his last 2/3 Williams has lost two close fights to two studs, and a brutal KO over a top 185'er.
Arce/Ewell... no real lean. Arce looked like a future champion against Ige but has since disappointed. Line is priced about right. Playing Arce -3.5pts at +140, even though I'm expecting a close fight.
Reed/Eubanks... watched zero tape on Reed. Will happily play +330 against a 36 year old woman.
Belbita/Goldy... only a true degenerate would put money on this fight. However, Belbita has only gone to decision 5 times in 19 fights. The itd line is +215.
Takedown defenseWhat are Sandhagen's holes? I know his TDD isn't great, but I'm unsure of anything else. Genuinely asking btw lol
2nd fight: Got taken down and nearly submitted against AlcantaraWhat are Sandhagen's holes? I know his TDD isn't great, but I'm unsure of anything else. Genuinely asking btw lol
I meant takedown defense (TDD)Takedown defense
I could be wrong too. I just remember Elkins looking good in the first round and then Landwehr taking over.One thing though is I don't remember Elkins fading badly in the Landwehr fight. I remember Nate fading badly.
2nd fight: Got taken down and nearly submitted against Alcantara
3rd fight: bautista took this on short notice and was able to slam him.
4th fight: dead even fight with lineker. could have gone either way.
6th fight: taken down and subbed instantly against aljamain.
The best version of TJ isn't +180 here. We just don't know which version of TJ is going to show up.
So TDD basically. I kinda remember the fight with Lineker and it being close but Lineker was and is still a hell of a fighter. I remember him being in bad positions against Bautista and Alcantara but toughed it out. No shame to me in losing to Aljo the way he did, I think that was his best chance at a win and he got it. I can't see TJ actually trying to grapple unless he gets in trouble on the feet, if that's the case I'd think Cory would have a better chance at defending. I could also see TJ trying to get a takedown at the end of a close round. Who knows, could be a totally different TJ at this point. Kinda wanna see him win though because it's more interesting with the matchups and hype. He's also getting older while Cory should be around for awhile.2nd fight: Got taken down and nearly submitted against Alcantara
3rd fight: bautista took this on short notice and was able to slam him.
4th fight: dead even fight with lineker. could have gone either way.
6th fight: taken down and subbed instantly against aljamain.
The best version of TJ isn't +180 here. We just don't know which version of TJ is going to show up.