UFC Sao Paulo: Curtis Blaydes vs Jailton Almeida, Brazil, November 4

[DabanggData]

UFC Sao Paulo: Curtis Blaydes vs Jailton Almeida, Brazil

Saturday, November 4, 2023

The event will mark the promotion's ninth visit to São Paulo and first since UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Jacaré in November 2019

Jailton Almeida born 2.11266 miles from arena, 11 siblings

https://twitter.com/hashtag/UFCSaoPaulo?src=hashtag_click&f=live
https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/101863-ufc-fight-night
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/74240
https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...s-razor-blaydes-vs-jailton-malhadinho-almeida
https://fightodds.io/odds/4777/ufc-fight-night-blaydes-vs-almeida
https://www.bestfightodds.com/
https://www.betmma.tips/mma_betting_tips.php

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Pichel +350 vs Ismael Bonfim is pretty fucking wild. Odds are definitely off there. Pichel is up there in age and the fight is in Brazil, but Pichel will fight for your money. Haven't taped it, but made a play based on gut reaction to odds. Also think there was a strong case to giving Pichel the win against O'Madsen last time out. The fight was way closer than the scores suggest

 

[burge13]

I always seem to get Blaydes fights wrong so steering clear of it but him as dog? Semi tempting

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Black Beast replacing Blaydes

 

[guesswhoseback]

I always seem to get Blaydes fights wrong so steering clear of it but him as dog? Semi tempting

Dont gotta worry about that now

 

[burge13]

Gets Almeida a name win

 

[EndlessCritic]

how is petrosyan/rodolfo even? rodolfo is trash

 

[Jae Gibbz]

how is petrosyan/rodolfo even? rodolfo is trash

I’m leaning Petro, myself. Mainly worried about his TDD and the fight being in Brazil

 

[mkess101]

I’m leaning Petro, myself. Mainly worried about his TDD and the fight being in Brazil

As good as Rodolfo is on the ground, his TD's haven't improved as much as they should've imo. Jacare in his prime made himself into a damn good MMA wrestler, I was thinking maybe Rodolfo would too. But while his striking has improved a bit, he didn't take that leap with his wrestling. And after the Fluffy fight, he seems to be scared shitless of expending a lot of energy and gassing.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I know we all are waiting for UFC 294 to start aleady but I placed my first two bets for the event.

Armen Petrosyan to win over Rodolfo Vieira 1U @-114. A bit late to the party on this one as many sharp minds in this thread already pointed out that Petroski should be the side in this one. I can only echo what has already been said, I just don't think Rodolfo takedowns are good enough to get it consistently to the ground. Rodolfo is also on a pretty hard timer, since he gasses very fast if he can't get this to the ground. I expect the odds will widen even further on this one as soon as UFC 294 is over.

Second bet i placed was.
Vitor Petrino Win over Modestas Bukauskas + Rodrigo Nascimento Win over Don'Tale Mayes. 1U @+100
Not want to make this to long. I just think Bukauskas is pretty bad and even in his two recent wins I have been pretty unimpressed. While on the other hand, Petrino might not be the most polished fighter but he is Powerful and has descent striking. He has pretty good wrestling (which surprised me a bit) and he is a dog. I think he should win this on the feet with the power and he should be able to get this to the ground and win there as well.

Nascimento should win over Mayes pretty comfortably. He has done it before and I don't see any reason why he wouldnt do it again. Mayes is absolutely horrible. I'm ashamed to say that I bet Mayes against Arlovski and I was not happy with that bet during the fight. Arlovski looked like dog shit and still he managed to beat Mayes in the stand up. If Arlovski had just a sliver of chin left he would have beaten Mayes.
Nascimento is not a great or perhaps not even good. I actually thought that the fight against Ilir was a bit too close for my liking. I would have expected him to win more convincingly over Ilir, but it was still alright i guess.

I think all three of these lines will widen after UFC 294.

 

[Danis_champ]

Armen Petrosyan to win over Rodolfo Vieira 1U @-114. A bit late to the party on this one as many sharp minds in this thread already pointed out that Petroski should be the side in this one. I can only echo what has already been said, I just don't think Rodolfo takedowns are good enough to get it consistently to the ground. Rodolfo is also on a pretty hard timer, since he gasses very fast if he can't get this to the ground. I expect the odds will widen even further on this one as soon as UFC 294 is over.

Armen has been taken down 12 times during his UFC run and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers than Rodolfo. (AJ Dobson, Kolev) To think Armen definitely got this is imo crazy. One TD and Armen is fooked. I don't think this fight is as easy to call as it feels. My immediate reaction was too oh easy money Armen but this is more complicated.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Armen has been taken down 12 times during his UFC run and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers than Rodolfo. (AJ Dobson, Kolev) To think Armen definitely got this is imo crazy. One TD and Armen is fooked. I don't think this fight is as easy to call as it feels. My immediate reaction was too oh easy money Armen but this is more complicated.

that is true, he has always been vulnerable to back takes as well. he likes to get up and expose his back . The question comes down to if he can survive round 1 and fight the hands and avoid being choked. Once he gets passed rnd 1 the fight will turn in his favor with sweat and cardio.


He did a decent job against Caio in terms of choke defense. Not the best sub specialist, but he did attempt to choke Armen, but Armen fought him off well and he has a decent amount of athleticism. In round 3 he was becoming difficult to take down. I do see him winning it, if he doesn't get choked or he is down 2 rnds, rnd 3 will be his and he may score a 10-8 based on striking difference. that at least makes him somewhat safe .

IS he really any different than Chris Curtis in terms of style matchup?

 

[Thesnake101]

that is true, he has always been vulnerable to back takes as well. he likes to get up and expose his back . The question comes down to if he can survive round 1 and fight the hands and avoid being choked. Once he gets passed rnd 1 the fight will turn in his favor with sweat and cardio.


He did a decent job against Caio in terms of choke defense. Not the best sub specialist, but he did attempt to choke Armen, but Armen fought him off well and he has a decent amount of athleticism. In round 3 he was becoming difficult to take down. I do see him winning it, if he doesn't get choked or he is down 2 rnds, rnd 3 will be his and he may score a 10-8 based on striking difference. that at least makes him somewhat safe .

IS he really any different than Chris Curtis in terms of style matchup?

I'd say so, Curtis' TDD stands at a whopping 92% with Imamov being the only one to take him down. He's stuffed the likes of Hawes, Allen, Hermansson and Gastelum. Armen on the other hand only has a 36% TDD rate, all but one of his opponents has taken him down more than once, with Duncan being the only guy to not be able to.

While I do think Armen should be the favorite, I would not have much confidence on him in this matchup. Rodolfo shot 7 takedowns against Brundage, so he's more than willing to start spamming if need be, and you've got to think that Armen will end up on his back at least once.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'd say so, Curtis' TDD stands at a whopping 92% with Imamov being the only one to take him down. He's stuffed the likes of Hawes, Allen, Hermansson and Gastelum. Armen on the other hand only has a 36% TDD rate, all but one of his opponents has taken him down more than once, with Duncan being the only guy to not be able to.

While I do think Armen should be the favorite, I would not have much confidence on him in this matchup. Rodolfo shot 7 takedowns against Brundage, so he's more than willing to start spamming if need be, and you've got to think that Armen will end up on his back at least once.

yeah but he makes up for tdd in getups. every other fight besides Caio he got up. and Caio with a better gas tank and striking skills is the difference.

to keep it short a solid getup game is nearly as safe as a good tdd.

 

[Thesnake101]

yeah but he makes up for tdd in getups. every other fight besides Caio he got up. and Caio with a better gas tank and striking skills is the difference.

to keep it short a solid getup game is nearly as safe as a good tdd.

He's not fighting a one dimensional wrestler though, he's not gonna be getting up if Rodolfo puts him on his back, at the very least not if that happens early.

 

[mkess101]

yeah but he makes up for tdd in getups. every other fight besides Caio he got up. and Caio with a better gas tank and striking skills is the difference.

to keep it short a solid getup game is nearly as safe as a good tdd.

Most of the time, agree. Might be different with a world class bjj guy like Rodolfo IF Armen is giving his back to get up. We've seen plenty of times guys do that vs someone like Rodolfo (Maia comes to mind) and they end up standing but with an elite grappler on their back hunting a choke.
If Armen uses other ways to get up than giving his back, I completely agree.

 

[Stat_Collector]

He's not fighting a one dimensional wrestler though, he's not gonna be getting up if Rodolfo puts him on his back, at the very least not if that happens early.

Most of the time, agree. Might be different with a world class bjj guy like Rodolfo IF Armen is giving his back to get up. We've seen plenty of times guys do that vs someone like Rodolfo (Maia comes to mind) and they end up standing but with an elite grappler on their back hunting a choke.
If Armen uses other ways to get up than giving his back, I completely agree.

I did address the submission threat, i just see it being a threat for the first 5 minutes. once they both sweat and Viera begins to tank he's getting demolished. Armen has decent hand fighting from when he's back mounted. Reminds me of Uriah Hall who is difficult to submit.

 

[mkess101]

I did address the submission threat, i just see it being a threat for the first 5 minutes. once they both sweat and Viera begins to tank he's getting demolished. Armen has decent hand fighting from when he's back mounted. Reminds me of Uriah Hall who is difficult to submit.

IDK about only round 1, but yeah I agree that the longer it goes the less chance Rodolfo has.

 

[Thesnake101]

Fernandes as a dog vs Marc worth it? Haven't looked at his tape but Marc usually looks unimpressive against aggressive guys who can stave off his wrestling.

Also interested in Ribovics. Obviously Brenner had that KO over Guram on top of his robbery against Zubaira, but it's not like his approach doesn't hinge on his durability a lot. Feel like Ribo will match him more than willingly on the feet and he's showcased the ability to generate enough power to get ahead and stagger Elves imo. Only unknown would be what happens when they hit the mat

 

[B.Goetz]

Also interested in Ribovics. Obviously Brenner had that KO over Guram on top of his robbery against Zubaira, but it's not like his approach doesn't hinge on his durability a lot. Feel like Ribo will match him more than willingly on the feet and he's showcased the ability to generate enough power to get ahead and stagger Elves imo. Only unknown would be what happens when they hit the mat

My thoughts:

We've seen Ribovics face a couple of good grapplers. His TDD is pretty poor, but his get-ups are solid. He gassed out his last two opponents by forcing them to keep getting takedowns. Radzhabov beat him in a competitive fight because he was Ribovics' equal in striking. I don't think that's the case with Brener.

Brener outlasted two guys that are primarily grapplers (?), but still seemed technically better than him (especially Tukhugov), largely with striking pressure. He was also bigger than both of them. Ribovics is the same height as him, and probably won't be much smaller weight-wise. Ribovics will not gas in a striking battle. He has good conditioning and is most comfortable there.

The closest parallel to this match-up is Ribovics vs. Kirk, a good wrestler with a BJJ black belt, but a striking defecit. Kirk dominated early, but faded under striking pressure and forced takedowns late in the fight. The second might have also gone to Kirk if he hadn't gotten knocked down late.

I think this is a close fight. If you like Ribovics the best way to play him might be to LB him when he inevitably gets taken down in the first. A "TKO or decision" prop might be another way to go.