UFC Sao Paulo: Curtis Blaydes vs Jailton Almeida, Brazil, November 4

[Marko Atanasovik]

I Bonfim to win - single 95%

M Diakiese to win
E Moura to win - - } locks of the night 85%
J Almeida to win

R Fakhretdinov to win
A Petrosyan to win
D Onama to win - - } 70% confident picks
Daniel Marcos to win
R Nascimento to win

C Borralho to win - - - risky fav pick 60%
E Brenner to win - - - risky fav pick 60%

M Bukauskas to win
A Hill to win - - } underdog picks 50%
N Dalby to win

 

[Stat_Collector]

I changed my mind on David Onama.

Reviewing tape, he has too much of an edge in multiple aspects, cardio, heavier punches, grappling, experience.

He should be 80% lean based on those criteria.

 

[Thesnake101]

I changed my mind on David Onama.

Reviewing tape, he has too much of an edge in multiple aspects, cardio, heavier punches, grappling, experience.

He should be 80% lean based on those criteria.

He pretty much blew away a better version of Lucas in his last fight, agreed.

Seen some money coming on Bukauskas. Prior to his fight with Pauga I would've understood it, but that showing was horrible and I'm surprised he walked away with a decision.

Vitor's own size and ability to fight hard for 15 minutes seems like it should spell doom for Modestas, especially due to his lackluster defense.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Onama out.

 

[sonhow]

Onama out.

Dammit

 

[Stat_Collector]

He pretty much blew away a better version of Lucas in his last fight, agreed.

Seen some money coming on Bukauskas. Prior to his fight with Pauga I would've understood it, but that showing was horrible and I'm surprised he walked away with a decision.

Vitor's own size and ability to fight hard for 15 minutes seems like it should spell doom for Modestas, especially due to his lackluster defense.

Vitor has his kryptonite, a heavy puncher. Modestas has been ko enough to be faded.

If i could replace David for Vitor in my parlay id do it.

I passed at first glance cause Modestas is a decent striker, but likely Vitor wins unless he gasses out and gets out pointed. But i see him getting the knock out.

 

[Thesnake101]

Onama out.

Fuck's sake.

Vitor has his kryptonite, a heavy puncher. Modestas has been ko enough to be faded.

If i could replace David for Vitor in my parlay id do it.

I passed at first glance cause Modestas is a decent striker, but likely Vitor wins unless he gasses out and gets out pointed. But i see him getting the knock out.

I think Vitor gets the KO too, hope he doesn't try to force the grappling like he did in his last few though. He should still win even if he does decide to grapple, but path of least resistance is to overwhelm Modestas on the feet.

Missed the contender series fight for the dude stepping in to face Marcos, he any good? Considering Daniel's line if the other guy is a grappler, Marcos' TDD is solid.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Missed the contender series fight for the dude stepping in to face Marcos, he any good? Considering Daniel's line if the other guy is a grappler, Marcos' TDD is solid.

Theres no value on Marcos in this spot imo, most of his win equity is tied up in a decision, so definitely dog or pass though I wouldn't exactly rush to bet the dog.

His opponent Victor Hugo Silva is a decent grappler with good top pressure and quite dangerous on top. He will pound out, submit, or stall opponents using his physicality which I think will be his biggest advantage in this spot. Marcos needs to use his footwork to stick and move and let Silva tire himself out trying to cut off the cage because if they tie up I anticipate it will result in Marcos ending up on his back.

I am considering a finish only bet on Victor Hugo Silva since he has most of the finishing equity as the harder hitting and better submission grappler. One additional thing to consider is how low volume Marcos was in his last fight. It's difficult to win a fight as a striker when you only land 5 head strikes during the first 2 rounds which is what Marcos landed.

 

[Thesnake101]

I am considering a finish only bet on Victor Hugo Silva since he has most of the finishing equity as the harder hitting and better submission grappler. One additional thing to consider is how low volume Marcos was in his last fight. It's difficult to win a fight as a striker when you only land 5 head strikes during the first 2 rounds which is what Marcos landed.

That was a drastically different performance to what he's usually shown so far though, considering that he landed more strikes in both his previous fights. His TDD also looked pretty solid so far, especially with how he shut down Saimon.

It's a risky gamble if he shows up with the same form he did for the Davey fight, but Grant has made many talented guys look bad so I'm willing to give Marcos the benefit of the doubt. If he shows up like he did for his fights against Lewis or Saimon, I think he cruises to a decision. Short-notice for Victor should also play in his favor since his cardio is good.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Rinat future champ.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Rinat future champ.

You literally say the same thing about every fighter that starts off 3-0

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

You literally say the same thing about every fighter that starts off 3-0

I said that for Rinat and Basharat only.
Basharat skillwise one of the best bantamweights.
Rinat most dominant wrestler in a WW (current) in my opinion.

 

[guesswhoseback]

I said that for Rinat and Basharat only.
Basharat skillwise one of the best bantamweights.
Rinat most dominant wrestler in a WW (current) in my opinion.

one of the thousand fighters u have named as future champ u will get and you can say hey i was the first to call it lol

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

one of the thousand fighters u have named as future champ u will get and you can say hey i was the first to call it lol

I am one of the thousand your mom's lovers.

 

[rev0lver]

Missed the contender series fight for the dude stepping in to face Marcos, he any good? Considering Daniel's line if the other guy is a grappler, Marcos' TDD is solid.

He's actually pretty dynamic on the feet, and likes striking (cmon, his nickname is Striker) in spite of his number of sub wins.

He's legit and very experienced. He will kind of hunt for certain things though instead of flowing, like dropping for leglocks in top control. But he has the tools to win anywhere.

I do think Marcos has the better fundamentals in the striking here, but Hugo as a 2-to-1 dog is a solid choice and there's no way I'd pay juice on the favorite here.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Fuck's sake.

I think Vitor gets the KO too, hope he doesn't try to force the grappling like he did in his last few though. He should still win even if he does decide to grapple, but path of least resistance is to overwhelm Modestas on the feet.

Missed the contender series fight for the dude stepping in to face Marcos, he any good? Considering Daniel's line if the other guy is a grappler, Marcos' TDD is solid.

Agreed.

The problem with betting against or for Hugo is there isn't enough tape to find on him. The one tape i found, he koed them with a well timed overhand with some power. I just don't have enough tape here. I didn't like Marcos last showing either. There is also a wide experience gap.

 

[BigSteve]

Agreed.

The problem with betting against or for Hugo is there isn't enough tape to find on him. The one tape i found, he koed them with a well timed overhand with some power. I just don't have enough tape here. I didn't like Marcos last showing either. There is also a wide experience gap.

theres a bunch of tape, 3 rounds decision on fight pass. He goes into round two against one of better opponents on Fitve then he quits due to broken toe or something. And I guess contender gave us a slight extended fight. I do fear he gasses although in that fight pass fight he looked as gassed as contender and still hit TDs. Could look like Olivera fight if he keeps pushing it

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

He goes into round two against one of better opponents on Fitve then he quits due to broken toe or something.....Could look like Olivera fight if he keeps pushing it

I think you are referring to his fight against Derinaldo Guerra where his opponent, not him, retired on their stool after the first round due to a broken hand.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I might look stupid in retrospect here, but I feel like we are getting a really good price on Denise Gomes.
I know a lot of people are on the Hill side and the odds have come down significantly, but I don't agree here.

Hill has played spoller quite a few times in the past and this could certainly be Hill giving Gomes a vet lesson, but I don't think so.

Hill likes fights that are contested on the feet at kickboxing range where she can dictate the pace and outpoint her opponents with higher volume and pace. However, when she is pressured on the feet and taken down she doesn't react well.
Look at her last fight. Dern was coming at Hill with high pressure swinging wild punches on the feet and Hill was tagged on multiple occasions and didn't look comfortable at all. When she was taken down she didn't really have a good answer. She is not at all threatening from her back and she struggled to get back up.
I think this fight could actually play out a bit similar, which I know sounds weird since Dern and Gomes are very different fighters.
I think Gomes will pressure with big punches, then crash in to clinch against the cage where it will be fairly even. Gomes will then either go for a takedown or they will break away... rinse and repeat.

Gomes will land the harder punches on the feet and the slightly higher volume of Hill will not be enough to make up for it. Gomes will also imo have some success with her takedowns and ground game. Gomes has shown that she does have descent cardio so I don't expect the pace of the fight to significantly change over time.

I also question Hill durability at this point. She was seriously rocked both by Dern and by Lupita. I think the age is starting to show.

All in all I think these odds are pretty generous, I took a 2U shot on Gomes ML @-116.

 

[EndlessCritic]

someone please explain how petrosyan/rodolfo is even.... petrosyan seems like he should be -200 here.